Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
A broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Marginal
environmental conditions are expected to limit development of this
system during the next few days. The low is forecast to meander over
open waters during the next day or so, then begin moving
northeastward by late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is
expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and
thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 08:51:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 09:22:53 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Aug 02 2024 850 WTPZ43 KNHC 020849 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM MST Fri Aug 02 2024 Recent scatterometer data indicate the center of Carlotta remains embedded within a small central dense overcast as deep convection has persisted near and over the center tonight. Satellite images indicate the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted over the western part of the circulation, perhaps the result of some westerly shear. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 54-65 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt for this advisory. The initial tropical-storm-force wind field of Carlotta has been made slightly larger than previous estimates based on the scatterometer winds. Carlotta is moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt), but a turn toward the west is expected later today as a ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through early next week. The model guidance has once again trended northward this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction, mainly in the 72-120 h time frame. Based on the multi-model consensus aids, the updated prediction is also slightly faster than the previous one during the latter half of the forecast period. The environmental and oceanic conditions are generally favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days. However, there remains some dry air in the surrounding environment that has at times disrupted Carlotta's organization in recent days given its small size. Assuming the inner core structure has improved based on recent convective trends, additional strengthening seems likely during the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, generally between the HFIP corrected consensus and the stronger HAFS-A/B regional models. Since Carlotta is a small cyclone, it could be susceptible to rapid intensity fluctuations. The storm is forecast to reach the 26C isotherm in about 60-72 h. Thereafter, weakening is forecast while Carlotta encounters cooler SSTs, increasing shear, and decreasing mid-level moisture. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.6N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 19.7N 124.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.2N 126.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 21.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 553 FOPZ13 KNHC 020847 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLA CLARION 64 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 115W 34 30 4(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 1 12(13) 72(85) 4(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 45(46) 6(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 21(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 53(73) 1(74) X(74) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 3(18) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Aug 02 2024 960 WTPZ33 KNHC 020846 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM MST Fri Aug 02 2024 ...CARLOTTA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 113.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 113.8 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected today, with a continued westward motion through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by some weakening early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. An automated Mexican Navy weather station on Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust of 65 mph (105 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CARLOTTA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM MST Fri Aug 2 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.2, -113.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 097 WTPZ23 KNHC 020846 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 113.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 113.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 115.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 126.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

MD 1793 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME SOUTH KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1793 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...northwest/north-central OK and extreme south KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020551Z - 020745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe gusts of 45-60 mph along with small hail will be possible with a slow east-southeastward-moving cluster along the northwest Oklahoma/southwest Kansas border area. DISCUSSION...Outflow mergers yielded a rather deep convective cluster with very cold IR cloud top temperatures. While the strength of the wind profile is modest with 20-25 kt mid-level north-northwesterlies per DDC/VNX VWP data, a ribbon of weak easterly low-level flow is situated north of the west/east-oriented portion of the surface front about 3 counties deep into OK. This is aiding in effective bulk shear enhancement, and may support loose organization in this cluster and downstream cells forming within a zone of isentropic ascent. Buffalo, OK, mesonet measured a 56-mph gust at 0530Z. Along the western periphery of the moderate buoyancy plume across northern OK to the MO/AR border area, additional strong to marginally severe gusts will be possible over the next few hours before convection likely wanes towards dawn. ..Grams/Edwards.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37179922 37119805 36709716 36539673 36279670 35949717 35929824 35869949 36389969 36739972 37179922 Read more