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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

An 18-mile section of the Big Hole River was fully closed to fishing due to low flows below 100 cubic feet per second. The affected stretch of the river was from the Tony Schoonen Fishing Access Site, known as Notch Bottom, to the confluence with the Jefferson River. The rest of the Big Hole upstream of Tony Schoonen Fishing Access Site was still under hoot-owl restrictions, prohibiting fishing each day between 2 p.m. and midnight. KXLF-TV 4 (Butte, Mont.), Aug 2, 2024

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021440 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Since the previous advisory, Carlotta's structure on satellite imagery has improved, with a banding eye showing up on both infrared and visible frames. We have been also receiving helpful surface observations from Isla Clarion which earlier reported sustained winds of 47 kt with a gust of 71 kt and a minimum pressure of 986 mb as Carlotta passed by just to the north. These data, along with subjective and objective intensity estimates in the 65-77 kt range are the basis to increase the initial intensity to 70 kt, making Carlotta the first hurricane of the East Pacific season. Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward, estimated at 285/12-kt. This heading with a gradual slowdown is expected to continue for the next several days as the hurricane remains influenced by a large deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The track guidance this cycle has not changed much other than another subtle shift north again, and the NHC track forecast was nudged again in that direction. The small hurricane has an opportunity to intensify further over the next day or so while it remains over warm ocean waters and low to moderate vertical wind shear. Similar to the previous advisory, the NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity as a Category 2 hurricane in 24-36 hours. However beyond that time, sea-surface temperatures decrease under 26 C and continue to cool as the environmental moisture becomes increasingly dry and stable. Thus, weakening should begin in earnest after that time period, with the system becoming post-tropical as it loses its remaining convection by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.9N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 22.0N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 14:40:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 15:29:11 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 021438 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 1 74(75) 20(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 20N 120W 50 X 23(23) 42(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 120W 64 X 4( 4) 25(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 43(49) 26(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 24(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 021438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...CARLOTTA BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 115.2W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 115.2 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual slowdown is anticipated over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increase to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by some weakening by early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). Earlier, a Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (86 km/h) and a gust of 81 mph (130 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). Earlier, a Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion reported a minimum pressure of 986 mb (29.11 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.6, -115.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 021432 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N 119.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 121.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.9N 123.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 22.0N 134.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Drought cut into the corn yield in Pickaway County, according to a farmer, who thought that instead of 200 bushels per acre, that he might at best have 100 bpa or less. WSYX-TV (Columbus, Ohio), Aug 1, 2024