Aggregator

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020245 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 90 8(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ISLA CLARION 50 48 34(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA CLARION 64 17 26(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 20N 115W 34 2 11(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 46(48) 30(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 28(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 62(68) 8(76) X(76) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 7(38) X(38) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020245 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 112.8W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 112.8W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 112.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N 116.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 121.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 123.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.7N 124.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N 128.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 020245 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 ...CARLOTTA HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 112.8W ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 112.8 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the west on Friday and a continued westward motion through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane either tonight or tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning soon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...CARLOTTA HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM MST Thu Aug 1 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.9, -112.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

MD 1792 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589... FOR EASTERN KY/TN INTO WESTERN VA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WV
Mesoscale Discussion 1792 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KY/TN into western VA and extreme southwest WV Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589... Valid 020101Z - 020230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind will continue eastward through the evening. DISCUSSION...While the northern portion of the long-lived MCS moving across KY has weakened, some intensification has been noted along the southern portion of the gust front, as the attendant cold pool has overtaken a preceding band of convection that developed from northeast TN into southeast KY. This portion of the MCS produced a 49 kt gust near London, KY, and will pose the greatest relative threat for damaging wind. A gradual weakening trend is expected later tonight, as MLCINH begins to increase and downstream buoyancy decreases, but in the short term, warm/moist conditions and MLCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg will support at least isolated damaging-wind potential through much of the evening. ..Dean.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 36458371 37038335 37868270 37648167 36858188 36108255 36048420 36268395 36458371 Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE TYS TO 45 NNW TRI TO 35 SSE HTS TO 25 N HTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792 ..DEAN..08/02/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC195-020340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE VAC027-051-020340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN DICKENSON WVC011-043-045-047-059-099-109-020340- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CABELL LINCOLN LOGAN MCDOWELL MINGO WAYNE Read more

WW 589 SEVERE TSTM KY VA WV 012245Z - 020400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Southwest Virginia Southwest West Virginia * Effective this Thursday night from 645 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move west to east across much of the Watch area this evening. Scattered strong to severe gusts (55-60 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles east northeast of Huntington WV to 35 miles south southeast of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 588... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N TYS TO 25 SSE JKL TO 15 ENE JKL TO 35 SW HTS TO 45 WNW HTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792 ..DEAN..08/02/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 589 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-071-115-119-127-133-153-159-193-195-020240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD FLOYD JOHNSON KNOTT LAWRENCE LETCHER MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE VAC027-051-020240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN DICKENSON WVC011-043-045-047-059-099-109-020240- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes. ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any multicells that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern High Plains... At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours this evening. ...Western Great Lakes... An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes. ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any multicells that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern High Plains... At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours this evening. ...Western Great Lakes... An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes. ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any multicells that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern High Plains... At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours this evening. ...Western Great Lakes... An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this evening across parts of the southern High Plains, Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and western Great Lakes. ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the north-central U.S., with another weaker shortwave trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the lead shortwave trough from Ohio into parts of Kentucky. Ahead of the storms, the RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of moderate instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Wilmington, Ohio and Morristown, Tennessee have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots, suggesting that isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with any multicells that can become organized. The severe threat is expected to persist for a couple more hours, as the convection moves into the southern Appalachians. ...Southern High Plains... At the surface, a weak front is located from the northern Texas Panhandle eastward across northern Oklahoma. Low-level moisture is greatest to the north of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. This is contributing to an east-to-west axis moderate instability to the north of the front, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Small clusters of strong storms are ongoing on either side of the boundary, from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeastern Colorado. WSR-88D VWPs in the southern High Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. In addition, the Amarillo 00Z observed sounding has an 850 to 500 mb lapse rate of 8.5 C/km. This environment could support isolated severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells for a few more hours this evening. ...Western Great Lakes... An upper-level low, associated with a shortwave trough, is currently analyzed across far southwest Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the low over eastern Wisconsin. The storms are located along the northern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Although forecast soundings have weak lapse rates in this area, 0-6 km shear is in the 20 to 25 knot range, according to regional WSR-88D VWPs. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be possible this evening. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/02/2024 Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BWG TO 45 SW LEX TO 35 SSW LUK TO 40 ESE LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 ..DEAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-137-151- 167-169-171-181-201-207-209-227-239-012340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BWG TO 45 SW LEX TO 35 SSW LUK TO 40 ESE LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 ..DEAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-137-151- 167-169-171-181-201-207-209-227-239-012340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BWG TO 45 SW LEX TO 35 SSW LUK TO 40 ESE LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 ..DEAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-137-151- 167-169-171-181-201-207-209-227-239-012340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0589 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0589 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 1 23:46:16 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012338
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles west of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for development of this
system during the next couple of days while it drifts slowly
westward. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to
become increasingly unfavorable, and further development is not
expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BWG TO 45 SW LEX TO 35 SSW LUK TO 40 ESE LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 ..DEAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-137-151- 167-169-171-181-201-207-209-227-239-012340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BWG TO 45 SW LEX TO 35 SSW LUK TO 40 ESE LUK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 ..DEAN..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-067-079-097-113-137-151- 167-169-171-181-201-207-209-227-239-012340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON JESSAMINE LINCOLN MADISON MERCER METCALFE MONROE NICHOLAS ROBERTSON RUSSELL SCOTT WARREN WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more