Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
around its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal for some
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
drifts slowly westward. By this weekend, environmental conditions
are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable, and further
development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHERN IN...AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern IL...southern IN...and western/central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011613Z - 011745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage and intensity is expected to increase over the next couple of hours across southern Illinois and Indiana into parts of western/central Kentucky. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with activity through the afternoon. A watch will likely be needed between 17-18z. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing late this morning in the vicinity of an MCV over southern IL. Visible satellite and surface obs show an outflow boundary oriented west to east across southern IL into southern IN ahead of this MCV and developing convection. Strong heating is already occurring across the downstream airmass, with temperatures already in the mid/upper 80s along/south of the outflow. With dewpoints in the 70s, the airmass is quickly destabilizing and low/midlevel inhibition rapidly eroding. This should aid in gradually increasing convection (both in coverage and intensity) over the next couple of hours. West/southwesterly, mostly unidirectional wind profiles, with flow around 30-40 kt in the midlevels, will support eastward developing storms tracking along the outflow and instability gradient. Upscale development into a forward propagating MCS is expected, with damaging gusts being the main concern through the afternoon. While flow is mostly unidirectional, some enhancement to SRH is possible in the vicinity of the outflow boundary. Low-level instability is quite high given the very moist airmass. If a well developed bow materializes, a tornado or two can not be ruled out via transient line-embedded mesovortex features, though damaging winds will be the primary hazard. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39088896 39528677 39248494 38648474 37698515 37378607 37298746 37418872 37758946 38188967 38568969 39088896 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER SMALL PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms producing wind gusts are possible on Friday from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid Atlantic, and over small parts of eastern Colorado, southeast Arizona, and Mississippi into Alabama. ...Synopsis... As an upper high holds over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough will slowly progress across the OH/TN Valleys, moving toward the Mid Atlantic late. A surface low will develop across PA and perhaps MD, with a front trailing southwestward into MS/AL/GA beneath northwest flow aloft. Ahead of the front, ample moisture will exist to support scattered storms, with the greatest concentration expected near the surface low. To the west, instability will develop and support afternoon storms from eastern CO/western NE into AZ, with areas of localized strong gust potential. ...Much of the East... Lift will be maximized near the low over PA, with storms likely forming by 17-18Z. A moist air mass along with veering winds with height may tend to support a small MCS with attendant wind gust potential. Lapse rates aloft look to be poor, and wind fields will not be particularly strong. However, wind gust potential may increase over time as storms progress east during the afternoon. Additional clusters of storms are likely into the western Carolinas, with similar marginal wind potential. ...Eastern CO... A steep lapse rate environment along with pockets of low level moisture will likely result in scattered storms developing during the late afternoon from near the WY/NE border into much of eastern CO. Although shear will be weak, southward-moving clusters of storms will likely produce strong outflows at times, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out through early evening. ...MS/AL... Strong heating will occur ahead of a weak surface front moving southward across the area, beneath modest northwest flow aloft on the backside of the OH Valley trough. Although minor midlevel subsidence will exist, forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the uncapped air mass, it is likely that scattered storms will develop along the east-west oriented boundary, and push southeastward with gusty wind potential. Isolated damaging gusts may occur. ..Jewell.. 08/01/2024 Read more

WW 0588 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0588 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Only minor adjustments have been made to the dry thunderstorm areas to reflect current forecast guidance. Significant uncertainty remains in thunderstorm coverage from northern California into Washington, but sufficient instability, dry, well mixed boundary-layer profiles, and at least weak/glancing forcing for ascent could result in some isolated dry thunderstorm activity over receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Only minor adjustments have been made to the dry thunderstorm areas to reflect current forecast guidance. Significant uncertainty remains in thunderstorm coverage from northern California into Washington, but sufficient instability, dry, well mixed boundary-layer profiles, and at least weak/glancing forcing for ascent could result in some isolated dry thunderstorm activity over receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Only minor adjustments have been made to the dry thunderstorm areas to reflect current forecast guidance. Significant uncertainty remains in thunderstorm coverage from northern California into Washington, but sufficient instability, dry, well mixed boundary-layer profiles, and at least weak/glancing forcing for ascent could result in some isolated dry thunderstorm activity over receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Only minor adjustments have been made to the dry thunderstorm areas to reflect current forecast guidance. Significant uncertainty remains in thunderstorm coverage from northern California into Washington, but sufficient instability, dry, well mixed boundary-layer profiles, and at least weak/glancing forcing for ascent could result in some isolated dry thunderstorm activity over receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z Only minor adjustments have been made to the dry thunderstorm areas to reflect current forecast guidance. Significant uncertainty remains in thunderstorm coverage from northern California into Washington, but sufficient instability, dry, well mixed boundary-layer profiles, and at least weak/glancing forcing for ascent could result in some isolated dry thunderstorm activity over receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more