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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley... Primary upper trough located over the Upper Midwest late this morning is forecast to develop generally east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the period. Multiple convectively enhanced MCVs are present over the Midwest, along with outflow boundaries from prior convection. These features will likely serve as forcing mechanisms for additional robust thunderstorm development across the OH Valley this afternoon and evening. One such MCV located over far eastern MO into western IL should track eastward through the day, while aiding a cluster of thunderstorms that have already started strengthening across southern IL. The outflow boundary extending across southern IN and vicinity will likely serve as a focus for the subsequent MCS track, as the airmass along/south of this boundary is rapidly destabilizing. Given the mainly linear mode expected and sufficient deep-layer shear present, scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat. But, a line-embedded tornado or two may also occur, especially near the outflow boundary. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1784 for more details. The northward extent of MCS development into northern/central IN/OH remains uncertain given lingering cloudiness and the outflow boundary remaining farther south. Still, there may be additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across these areas in association with another MCV over northeast IL/northwest IN. Have therefore made no changes to the northern edge of the Slight Risk in the OH Valley with this update. Farther northwest, a separate area of strong to locally severe thunderstorm development may occur closer to the mid/upper-level cyclone across parts of WI into northern IL. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest cores. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and Southeast... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong instability from GA and the Carolinas into southern parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Large-scale ascent across this region should remain rather weak/nebulous. Accordingly, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, and could be isolated to widely scattered. However, robust thunderstorms may still form by late afternoon into early evening, as lingering convective inhibition erodes. Modest mid-level northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough along the East Coast may provide sufficient effective bulk shear for modest updraft organization, with a threat of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Southern/Central High Plains to the Mid-South... The outflow-reinforced front has nearly stalled over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa NM vicinity in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the OK/TX Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR and southern MO. Low/midlevel flow will remain rather weak. Still, sufficient veering of winds with height should support effective shear generally around 20-30 kt. This should be sufficient for some convective organization with of moderate to strong instability present along/near the boundary. Initially discrete thunderstorms could produce large hail, but outflow and convective consolidation/clustering with the well-mixed boundary layer should lead to an increasing threat for isolated severe gusts later in the convective evolution. ..Gleason/Moore.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current forecast remains on-track and unchanged. See previous discussion for more details. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 08/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS today. Along the southern periphery of the ridge, a midlevel vorticity maximum -- currently evident in water-vapor imagery near the northern Gulf of CA -- will continue west-northwestward across southern CA. Increasing midlevel moisture and ascent preceding this feature will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of southern CA into the overnight hours. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms could favor some threat of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels, the dry-thunderstorm risk appears too localized for highlights at this time. Along the western periphery of the ridge, moderate south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread northern CA into OR. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon -- especially within terrain-favored areas such as the Shasta Valley. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the threat is too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 14:51:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 15:22:53 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011449 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 After intensifying over the past 12 to 18 hours, Carlotta is taking a brief pause as the inner-core becomes better established, though the system is still quite healthy looking on satellite imagery with plenty of curved bands around a formative central dense overcast (CDO). A blend of the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates still support an intensity of 50-kt this advisory, which is also roughly in the middle of objective intensity guidance. Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward at 295/10-kt. This motion is caused by a prominent deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern United States, and Carlotta may turn more back westward over the next few days as this ridge continues to strengthen. However by day 3 and beyond, the tropical cyclone will begin to feel a weakness to the north, which will likely result in a gradual slowdown in its forward motion and another gentle shift more poleward in the track. The latest track guidance is ever so slightly further north and faster compared to the previous cycle. Thus, the NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit in that direction, roughly in between the prior track forecast, and the reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. Environmental conditions still appear quite favorable for intensification, with warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and low to moderate shear between 10-15 kt out of the northwest. The rate of intensification may be determined more by how Carlotta's inner-core evolves, and there have not been any recent microwave images to diagnose the current structure. The SHIPS rapid intensification index is a little lower than last night, though this could also be in response to the temporary pause in the intensification. However the last few GOES-18 images suggest the CDO is becoming better established though an eye has yet to fully appear on first-light visible imagery. Even though the intensity guidance has shifted a little lower than last night, I have elected to keep the same intensification rate in the NHC forecast from the last cycle over the next 24 hours. This forecast is in better agreement with the regional-hurricane models HAFS-A/B versus the lower consensus aids that have been influenced by the lower SHIPS and LGEM guidance. After 48-60 hours, SSTs begin to markedly decrease along the forecast track, dropping under 26 C in 96 hours. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening between days 3 to 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 17.2N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.9N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 18.2N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.3N 117.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.4N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 18.6N 121.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.5N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 297 FOPZ13 KNHC 011447 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 2 91(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA CLARION 50 X 64(64) 10(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA CLARION 64 X 36(36) 9(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 1 20(21) 12(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) 18(69) 1(70) 1(71) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 36(64) 4(68) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 3(29) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 293 WTPZ33 KNHC 011447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 ...CARLOTTA STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 111.0W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 111.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west on Friday and a continued westward motion through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane either tonight or tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin