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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep trough and embedded midlevel cyclone are forecast to move east-southeastward across parts of the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes today. One or more MCVs may move along the southern/eastern periphery of this trough from the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Farther east, a weak mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward through parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast early in the day. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced cold front will move southward and may become nearly stationary somewhere over the south-central Great Plains by this afternoon. Other outflow boundaries will likely reside somewhere across the mid/upper MS and OH Valleys. ...Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley... Uncertainty remains regarding the influence of early morning convection and related outflow on the severe potential across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. However, potential for organized severe storms remains evident, with a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two. The Slight Risk has been expanded across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley, and a corridor of greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on the evolution of morning convection and subsequent destabilization. An MCS or its remnant will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from far eastern MO into IL. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution and intensity of this potential MCS through the morning, but at least isolated damaging wind will be possible as it moves eastward. Depending on the timing of this system, there will be some potential for diurnal intensification as the downstream environment destabilizes, though deep-layer flow/shear will tend to weaken with eastward extent. In the wake of the morning convection, diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will support strong destabilization along/south of the remnant outflow boundary, with some potential for recovery and destabilization to the cool side of the boundary through the day. The approaching shortwave trough will support scattered afternoon storm development across parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for storm organization, given the favorable instability. Some supercell potential will be possible with initial development, with an attendant threat of damaging wind, hail, and possibly a tornado or two, especially in closer proximity to any remnant outflow boundary. Storm clustering and some upscale growth will be possible with time, which could result in a forward-propagating MCS with increasing damaging-wind potential. Farther northwest, additional strong to locally severe storm development will be possible closer to the midlevel cyclone across parts of WI into eastern IA and northern IL. Deep-layer shear will likely remain rather modest, but moderate instability could support at least isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest storms. ...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas/Georgia... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong buoyancy from GA and the Carolinas into parts of the Mid Atlantic. With generally weak large-scale ascent across the region, storm coverage remains uncertain and could be relatively limited. However, isolated storm development will be possible by late afternoon into early evening, as MLCINH erodes. Modest midlevel northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough could provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, with a threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Northeast NM into parts of the southern Plains... As the outflow-reinforced front becomes nearly stationary somewhere over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM, scattered thunderstorms will become possible this afternoon. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa vicinity, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the TX/OK Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR. Low/midlevel flow will be rather weak, but with sufficient veering of winds with height to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, sufficient for some storm organization in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy. Initial discrete storms could produce some hail, but outflow production and consolidation within the well-mixed environment will lead to an increasing threat for at least isolated severe gusts later in the storm evolution. ...Arizona... 00Z guidance has trended somewhat stronger with destabilization and potential storm coverage across parts of southeast into northern AZ. Modest southeasterly midlevel flow could support a few briefly organized storms, and isolated strong wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in the development of robust storms. ..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep trough and embedded midlevel cyclone are forecast to move east-southeastward across parts of the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes today. One or more MCVs may move along the southern/eastern periphery of this trough from the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Farther east, a weak mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward through parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast early in the day. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced cold front will move southward and may become nearly stationary somewhere over the south-central Great Plains by this afternoon. Other outflow boundaries will likely reside somewhere across the mid/upper MS and OH Valleys. ...Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley... Uncertainty remains regarding the influence of early morning convection and related outflow on the severe potential across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. However, potential for organized severe storms remains evident, with a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two. The Slight Risk has been expanded across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley, and a corridor of greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on the evolution of morning convection and subsequent destabilization. An MCS or its remnant will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from far eastern MO into IL. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution and intensity of this potential MCS through the morning, but at least isolated damaging wind will be possible as it moves eastward. Depending on the timing of this system, there will be some potential for diurnal intensification as the downstream environment destabilizes, though deep-layer flow/shear will tend to weaken with eastward extent. In the wake of the morning convection, diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will support strong destabilization along/south of the remnant outflow boundary, with some potential for recovery and destabilization to the cool side of the boundary through the day. The approaching shortwave trough will support scattered afternoon storm development across parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for storm organization, given the favorable instability. Some supercell potential will be possible with initial development, with an attendant threat of damaging wind, hail, and possibly a tornado or two, especially in closer proximity to any remnant outflow boundary. Storm clustering and some upscale growth will be possible with time, which could result in a forward-propagating MCS with increasing damaging-wind potential. Farther northwest, additional strong to locally severe storm development will be possible closer to the midlevel cyclone across parts of WI into eastern IA and northern IL. Deep-layer shear will likely remain rather modest, but moderate instability could support at least isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest storms. ...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas/Georgia... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong buoyancy from GA and the Carolinas into parts of the Mid Atlantic. With generally weak large-scale ascent across the region, storm coverage remains uncertain and could be relatively limited. However, isolated storm development will be possible by late afternoon into early evening, as MLCINH erodes. Modest midlevel northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough could provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, with a threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Northeast NM into parts of the southern Plains... As the outflow-reinforced front becomes nearly stationary somewhere over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM, scattered thunderstorms will become possible this afternoon. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa vicinity, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the TX/OK Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR. Low/midlevel flow will be rather weak, but with sufficient veering of winds with height to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, sufficient for some storm organization in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy. Initial discrete storms could produce some hail, but outflow production and consolidation within the well-mixed environment will lead to an increasing threat for at least isolated severe gusts later in the storm evolution. ...Arizona... 00Z guidance has trended somewhat stronger with destabilization and potential storm coverage across parts of southeast into northern AZ. Modest southeasterly midlevel flow could support a few briefly organized storms, and isolated strong wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in the development of robust storms. ..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep trough and embedded midlevel cyclone are forecast to move east-southeastward across parts of the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes today. One or more MCVs may move along the southern/eastern periphery of this trough from the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Farther east, a weak mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward through parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast early in the day. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced cold front will move southward and may become nearly stationary somewhere over the south-central Great Plains by this afternoon. Other outflow boundaries will likely reside somewhere across the mid/upper MS and OH Valleys. ...Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley... Uncertainty remains regarding the influence of early morning convection and related outflow on the severe potential across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. However, potential for organized severe storms remains evident, with a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two. The Slight Risk has been expanded across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley, and a corridor of greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on the evolution of morning convection and subsequent destabilization. An MCS or its remnant will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from far eastern MO into IL. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution and intensity of this potential MCS through the morning, but at least isolated damaging wind will be possible as it moves eastward. Depending on the timing of this system, there will be some potential for diurnal intensification as the downstream environment destabilizes, though deep-layer flow/shear will tend to weaken with eastward extent. In the wake of the morning convection, diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will support strong destabilization along/south of the remnant outflow boundary, with some potential for recovery and destabilization to the cool side of the boundary through the day. The approaching shortwave trough will support scattered afternoon storm development across parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for storm organization, given the favorable instability. Some supercell potential will be possible with initial development, with an attendant threat of damaging wind, hail, and possibly a tornado or two, especially in closer proximity to any remnant outflow boundary. Storm clustering and some upscale growth will be possible with time, which could result in a forward-propagating MCS with increasing damaging-wind potential. Farther northwest, additional strong to locally severe storm development will be possible closer to the midlevel cyclone across parts of WI into eastern IA and northern IL. Deep-layer shear will likely remain rather modest, but moderate instability could support at least isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest storms. ...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas/Georgia... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong buoyancy from GA and the Carolinas into parts of the Mid Atlantic. With generally weak large-scale ascent across the region, storm coverage remains uncertain and could be relatively limited. However, isolated storm development will be possible by late afternoon into early evening, as MLCINH erodes. Modest midlevel northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough could provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, with a threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Northeast NM into parts of the southern Plains... As the outflow-reinforced front becomes nearly stationary somewhere over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM, scattered thunderstorms will become possible this afternoon. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa vicinity, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the TX/OK Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR. Low/midlevel flow will be rather weak, but with sufficient veering of winds with height to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, sufficient for some storm organization in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy. Initial discrete storms could produce some hail, but outflow production and consolidation within the well-mixed environment will lead to an increasing threat for at least isolated severe gusts later in the storm evolution. ...Arizona... 00Z guidance has trended somewhat stronger with destabilization and potential storm coverage across parts of southeast into northern AZ. Modest southeasterly midlevel flow could support a few briefly organized storms, and isolated strong wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in the development of robust storms. ..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep trough and embedded midlevel cyclone are forecast to move east-southeastward across parts of the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes today. One or more MCVs may move along the southern/eastern periphery of this trough from the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Farther east, a weak mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward through parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast early in the day. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced cold front will move southward and may become nearly stationary somewhere over the south-central Great Plains by this afternoon. Other outflow boundaries will likely reside somewhere across the mid/upper MS and OH Valleys. ...Parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley... Uncertainty remains regarding the influence of early morning convection and related outflow on the severe potential across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. However, potential for organized severe storms remains evident, with a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two. The Slight Risk has been expanded across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley, and a corridor of greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on the evolution of morning convection and subsequent destabilization. An MCS or its remnant will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from far eastern MO into IL. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution and intensity of this potential MCS through the morning, but at least isolated damaging wind will be possible as it moves eastward. Depending on the timing of this system, there will be some potential for diurnal intensification as the downstream environment destabilizes, though deep-layer flow/shear will tend to weaken with eastward extent. In the wake of the morning convection, diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will support strong destabilization along/south of the remnant outflow boundary, with some potential for recovery and destabilization to the cool side of the boundary through the day. The approaching shortwave trough will support scattered afternoon storm development across parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for storm organization, given the favorable instability. Some supercell potential will be possible with initial development, with an attendant threat of damaging wind, hail, and possibly a tornado or two, especially in closer proximity to any remnant outflow boundary. Storm clustering and some upscale growth will be possible with time, which could result in a forward-propagating MCS with increasing damaging-wind potential. Farther northwest, additional strong to locally severe storm development will be possible closer to the midlevel cyclone across parts of WI into eastern IA and northern IL. Deep-layer shear will likely remain rather modest, but moderate instability could support at least isolated hail and damaging wind with the strongest storms. ...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas/Georgia... Strong heating of a moist environment will result in the development of moderate to locally strong buoyancy from GA and the Carolinas into parts of the Mid Atlantic. With generally weak large-scale ascent across the region, storm coverage remains uncertain and could be relatively limited. However, isolated storm development will be possible by late afternoon into early evening, as MLCINH erodes. Modest midlevel northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing upper-level trough could provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, with a threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Northeast NM into parts of the southern Plains... As the outflow-reinforced front becomes nearly stationary somewhere over the south-central High Plains into northeast NM, scattered thunderstorms will become possible this afternoon. Initial development may occur near the Raton Mesa vicinity, with more isolated development possible farther east along the front into the TX/OK Panhandles, and potentially farther east along the boundary into northern OK/AR. Low/midlevel flow will be rather weak, but with sufficient veering of winds with height to support effective shear of 20-30 kt, sufficient for some storm organization in the presence of moderate to strong buoyancy. Initial discrete storms could produce some hail, but outflow production and consolidation within the well-mixed environment will lead to an increasing threat for at least isolated severe gusts later in the storm evolution. ...Arizona... 00Z guidance has trended somewhat stronger with destabilization and potential storm coverage across parts of southeast into northern AZ. Modest southeasterly midlevel flow could support a few briefly organized storms, and isolated strong wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in the development of robust storms. ..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2024 Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CNU TO 15 NNW OJC TO 35 N SZL TO 30 NE CDJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781. ..GRAMS..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC091-107-121-010640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON LINN MIAMI MOC001-013-015-033-037-041-053-083-089-095-101-107-115-121-141- 159-175-185-195-211-010640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BATES BENTON CARROLL CASS CHARITON COOPER HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINN MACON MORGAN PETTIS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE SULLIVAN Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MCW TO 40 NW RST TO 30 NNW LSE. WW 585 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 010600Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782. ..GRAMS..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ABR...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-010600- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED WABASHA WINONA WIC011-121-010600- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO TREMPEALEAU THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE MCW TO 40 NW RST TO 30 NNW LSE. WW 585 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 010600Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782. ..GRAMS..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ABR...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-010600- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED WABASHA WINONA WIC011-121-010600- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO TREMPEALEAU THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 585 SEVERE TSTM MN SD WI 312355Z - 010600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 585 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern into Western Minnesota Northeast South Dakota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 655 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely persist into the mid to late evening across the Watch area. Severe gusts (60-75 mph) capable of wind damage appear to be the primary hazard, but large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) is also possible with the stronger thunderstorm cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Watertown SD to 55 miles east of Rochester MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...WW 581...WW 582...WW 583...WW 584... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S RSL TO 35 WNW HUT TO 15 NNW HUT. WW 583 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010600Z. ..GRAMS..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC079-155-010600- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARVEY RENO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S RSL TO 35 WNW HUT TO 15 NNW HUT. WW 583 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010600Z. ..GRAMS..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC079-155-010600- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARVEY RENO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 583 SEVERE TSTM KS 312250Z - 010600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 583 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northeast Kansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 550 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of organizing severe thunderstorms across northern Kansas will gradually move into the Watch area this evening. Upscale growth into one or two linear clusters is forecast. Severe gusts (60-80 mph) and large to very large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Russell KS to 25 miles north northeast of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...WW 581...WW 582... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28015. ...Smith Read more

341
ABPZ20 KNHC 010518
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to
the west of its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal for
some development of this system during the next couple of days while
it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. By this weekend,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable,
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next couple of days, and thereafter environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 1782 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 585... FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1782 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585... Valid 010429Z - 010530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585 continues. SUMMARY...A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to continue over the next 1 to 2 hours across southeast Minnesota. The threat should be too isolated for new weather watch issuance, and WW 585 will be allowed to expire at 06Z. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery currently shows a line of thunderstorms from far southern Minnesota into northeast Iowa. This line is located along the northern edge of a pocket of moderate instability. RAP analysis has MLCAPE across much of southeastern Minnesota in the 1000 to 2000 J/Kg range. As the line moves east-northeastward across southeast Minnesota over the next couple of hours, a severe wind gust will be possible. However, decreasing instability will likely contribute to any severe threat becoming more marginal with time. ..Broyles/Smith.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44029168 44539239 44719315 44589387 44339411 43879406 43559380 43509318 43489248 43519177 44029168 Read more

WW 0583 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE GCK TO 40 W EMP TO 10 NE EMP TO 15 W FLV. ..BROYLES..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 583 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-031-045-059-079-113-115-139-155-159-010540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN HARVEY MCPHERSON MARION OSAGE RENO RICE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC051-010540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIS MOC129-171-010540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MERCER PUTNAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC051-010540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIS MOC129-171-010540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MERCER PUTNAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC051-010540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIS MOC129-171-010540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MERCER PUTNAM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 584 SEVERE TSTM IA MO 312315Z - 010600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Iowa Northern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 615 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An intense severe-wind producing bow echo will continue eastward this evening into western and central Iowa and perhaps adjacent parts of northern Missouri. Numerous to widespread severe gusts (60-90 mph), and perhaps a tornado, are the primary hazards with this squall line as it moves east into the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Des Moines IA to 35 miles south southwest of Lamoni IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 579...WW 580...WW 581...WW 582...WW 583... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Smith Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE FRM TO 30 SSW MSP TO 15 SSW EAU. ..BROYLES..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...ABR...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC039-043-045-047-049-055-099-109-131-147-157-161-169-010540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED RICE STEELE WABASHA WASECA WINONA WIC011-121-010540- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO TREMPEALEAU THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW YKN TO 20 NNW FSD TO 20 SSE RWF. ..BROYLES..08/01/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-143-010540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON OSCEOLA MNC033-063-101-105-133-010540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON MURRAY NOBLES ROCK SDC083-099-125-010540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN MINNEHAHA TURNER Read more