Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
to the west of its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal
for some development of this system during the next couple of days
while it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. By this weekend,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable,
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or two, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended forecast period will feature an upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide with northwesterly flow aloft from the northern Plains to the East Coast. Severe weather may be possible any day within this corridor within a pocket of remnant moisture along/near the frontal zone across the region, and shear which would support organized severe weather. However, the pocket of instability is relatively narrow given a drier, more continental airmass so the south of this frontal zone with persistent northerly flow and a lack of a consistent Gulf moisture feed. In addition, any mid-level shortwave troughs embedded within the northwesterly flow will be mesoscale in nature and thus, the details cannot be resolved at this range. In addition, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Georgia/south Carolina coast will need to be monitored for potential impacts from a tropical wave which according to the National Hurricane Center, could develop into a tropical cyclone late this weekend or early next week. If an organized tropical system does develop, some severe-weather threat may materialize. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 08:38:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Aug 2024 09:22:50 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 Carlotta has continued to strengthen tonight. A series of earlier SSMIS and GMI passive microwave images show that the storm has become better organized, with deep convection wrapping around the center and a formative mid-level eye becoming apparent in the 89-GHz channel. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer data is available to better assess the size or intensity of Carlotta. TAFB and SAB provided T-3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak estimates, while the UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates range from 41-55 kt. The initial intensity of the storm is raised to 50 kt based on a blend of these estimates. A ridge over the southwestern United States is steering Carlotta west-northwestward at about 10 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue today. As the ridge strengthens to the north of the storm, Carlotta is forecast to turn westward on Friday and continue on that heading through the weekend. The track models are in good agreement through the first few days of the forecast period, with increased spread noted thereafter in the deterministic models and global ensembles. The updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the previous track and is a bit faster in the longer range, following the latest multi-model consensus aid trends. Very warm SSTs and relatively low deep-layer shear appear favorable for significant to possibly rapid intensification of Carlotta during the next couple of days. Given that the microwave data suggest an inner core could be solidifying, Carlotta seems likely to take advantage of these favorable conditions and is expected to become a hurricane later today. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, remaining on the high end of the intensity guidance envelope early in the forecast period and showing continued strengthening through early Saturday. The forecast track brings the storm over gradually cooler waters from 72-120 h, which should induce weakening by early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 19 5(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 1 56(57) 37(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ISLA CLARION 50 X 12(12) 55(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA CLARION 64 X 3( 3) 34(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 25(31) 3(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 41(62) 3(65) X(65) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) 1(22) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 35(45) 12(57) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 010836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 ...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 109.9W ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 109.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west on Friday and a continued westward motion through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Aug 1 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.0, -109.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.9W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.9W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Southest into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. A few isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet max will traverse the southern periphery of a slow-moving trough across the Ohio Valley and emerge across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon/evening. As this occurs, a weak lee surface trough east of the Appalachians will sharpen somewhat during the day Saturday. Farther west, a strong upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will start to break down as a strong mid-level jet traverses the Canadian Prairies. A cold front will move into the northern Plains on Saturday and may focus a few isolated strong to severe storms. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist airmass east of the Appalachians (low to mid 70s F dewpoints) will result in moderate to strong instability by mid-day Saturday across a large region from GA/AL to the Mid-Atlantic. Weak height falls and a surface lee trough in an uncapped airmass should lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Saturday afternoon across a large portion of the eastern CONUS. The moderate to strong instability and moist airmass will be sufficient for some isolated strong to severe storm threat. However, a somewhat greater severe weather threat is possible from northern South Carolina into central Virginia where stronger mid-level flow may lead to a local region of better storm organization. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a southward-moving cold front in the northern Plains as temperatures warm well into the 90s. Some stronger mid-level flow may overspread this cold front during the afternoon/evening and enhance the deep-layer shear. Thunderstorms are likely across Minnesota, closer to the mid-level vorticity maximum with decreasing storm probability with western extent as inhibition increases. At least isolated storm development is expected where the best shear and instability overlaps from northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota into central Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2024 Read more

MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Areas affected...east-central MO into central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010719Z - 010845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Conditional potential exists for an increase in strong to severe gusts from 50-65 mph across a part of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into central Illinois. If realized, the threat may only last for a couple hours. DISCUSSION...An uptick in deep convection, largely displaced west of a leading outflow boundary, occurred about 30 minutes ago across a part of northeast MO, seemingly associated with a subtle MCV moving east. A gust of 48 mph was recently measured at the Columbia, MO ASOS where the trailing portion of outflow from this cluster overtook the lead outflow from a separate cluster of deep convection, now over west-central IL. As this northeast MO cluster merges into the leading cluster in west-central IL, an increase in strong to severe gusts may occur farther south in central IL. If this occurs, this may be relatively short-lived, around a couple hours, owing to southwesterly low-level flow roughly paralleling the large-scale convective outflow and lack of stronger forcing for ascent heading into sunrise. ..Grams/Edwards.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39649121 39829099 39949049 40328969 40208936 39998890 39688874 39318871 38998881 38838920 38589004 38619084 38819164 39649121 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Rockies/Intermountain West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will advance northward from southern CA into OR through the period. Preceding this feature, a plume of sufficient midlevel moisture, atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms. Storms will develop over CA during the afternoon, and gradually spread/develop northward (in tandem with the vorticity maximum) across the Northwest into the overnight hours. Given dry fuels across many of these areas, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. Confidence in thunderstorm development is lower with northward extent into WA, though sufficient instability and glancing ascent ahead of a midlevel trough could still yield isolated storms. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more