Aggregator

MD 1794 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 1794 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Southeast and southern Appalachians Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021743Z - 021945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to occasional severe storms evolving along previous outflow may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. Confidence in storm organization is low, and a WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 1740 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery showed several clusters of strong to occasional severe thunderstorms evolving across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Over the past 2 hours, these storms have intensified along previous outflow boundaries across northern AL and a weak MCV over TN/VA/NC from prior convection. Weak ascent ahead of a broad central US trough should continue to support additional storm development through this afternoon. Robust diurnal heating and dewpoints in the 70s F are supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical shear is not particularly robust, generally less than 20 kt. However, some slight mid-level enhancement has been noted on area VADs ahead of the MCV across western NC and VA. Given the moderate buoyancy but limited deep-layer shear, storm organization should be confined to stronger pulse-type updrafts with microburst potential. Isolated strong to occasionally severe gusts are possible with the more robust cores through this afternoon. However, given the limited potential for storm organization, confidence in the need for a WW is low. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 34898172 34498319 34258420 33898580 33948655 34128683 34388683 34808613 35178503 36458296 37468185 37358112 36648051 35968066 35128127 34898172 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021856
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1155 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure in the Western part of the East Pacific (EP95).

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has a well-defined circulation and is
producing winds up to 35 mph. Despite marginal environmental
conditions, any improvement in the current convective organization
could result formation of a tropical depression over the next day or
two as the low meanders over open waters, then begins to move
northeastward by late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Roberts

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However, it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday. Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities. Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 08/02/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized compared to yesterday near and just west of an area of low
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. However, marginal environmental
conditions are likely to limit development of this system during
the next few days. The low is forecast to meander over open waters
during the next day or so, then begin moving northeastward by late
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms with a low risk of damaging gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. A developing tropical cyclone may also impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving positive-tilt upper trough will affect much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Saturday, providing minor cooling aloft and modest southwest flow. A weak front will stretch from parts of New England southward into northern GA, with a moist air pass to the east with 70s F dewpoints. To the west, moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, on the southern periphery of a large Hudson Bay low. A surface low is expected over SD ahead of a cold front which will stretch roughly from the Black Hills into northern MN, with pockets of moisture aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, a disturbance now over Cuba is expected to become a Tropical Storm as it crosses the Florida Straits and turns northward into Sunday morning, per latest NHC guidance. ...Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley... Storms are likely to form along the cold front near 21Z from northern SD into north-central MN, with an increase in coverage and intensity through early evening. Moderate instability and favorable northwest flow aloft will favor large hail with the initial activity, with small cluster or perhaps an MCS producing damaging winds as outflow surges southward across eastern SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA. As such, the area has been upgraded to Slight Risk. ...Eastern States... Scattered storms will develop by early afternoon along the length of the front, within the very moist and heating air mass. Lapse rates aloft will be poor, and shear weak, but sporadic strong or damaging outflows/gusts will be possible within this large zone through early evening before the air mass is completely overturned and stabilized. ...FL Peninsula and Keys... Per latest NHC guidance, a Tropical Storm is expected to impact the region late Saturday and through the end of the Day 2 period. A very moist/tropical air mass will exist along and east of the center track, and a general increase in low-level shear is anticipated. As such, brief circulations may eventually develop with any of the stronger cells within eastern convective bands as they proceed across the Keys and the western FL Peninsula. A 2% tornado probability has been added for this possibility. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms with a low risk of damaging gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. A developing tropical cyclone may also impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving positive-tilt upper trough will affect much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Saturday, providing minor cooling aloft and modest southwest flow. A weak front will stretch from parts of New England southward into northern GA, with a moist air pass to the east with 70s F dewpoints. To the west, moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, on the southern periphery of a large Hudson Bay low. A surface low is expected over SD ahead of a cold front which will stretch roughly from the Black Hills into northern MN, with pockets of moisture aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, a disturbance now over Cuba is expected to become a Tropical Storm as it crosses the Florida Straits and turns northward into Sunday morning, per latest NHC guidance. ...Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley... Storms are likely to form along the cold front near 21Z from northern SD into north-central MN, with an increase in coverage and intensity through early evening. Moderate instability and favorable northwest flow aloft will favor large hail with the initial activity, with small cluster or perhaps an MCS producing damaging winds as outflow surges southward across eastern SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA. As such, the area has been upgraded to Slight Risk. ...Eastern States... Scattered storms will develop by early afternoon along the length of the front, within the very moist and heating air mass. Lapse rates aloft will be poor, and shear weak, but sporadic strong or damaging outflows/gusts will be possible within this large zone through early evening before the air mass is completely overturned and stabilized. ...FL Peninsula and Keys... Per latest NHC guidance, a Tropical Storm is expected to impact the region late Saturday and through the end of the Day 2 period. A very moist/tropical air mass will exist along and east of the center track, and a general increase in low-level shear is anticipated. As such, brief circulations may eventually develop with any of the stronger cells within eastern convective bands as they proceed across the Keys and the western FL Peninsula. A 2% tornado probability has been added for this possibility. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms with a low risk of damaging gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. A developing tropical cyclone may also impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving positive-tilt upper trough will affect much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Saturday, providing minor cooling aloft and modest southwest flow. A weak front will stretch from parts of New England southward into northern GA, with a moist air pass to the east with 70s F dewpoints. To the west, moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, on the southern periphery of a large Hudson Bay low. A surface low is expected over SD ahead of a cold front which will stretch roughly from the Black Hills into northern MN, with pockets of moisture aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, a disturbance now over Cuba is expected to become a Tropical Storm as it crosses the Florida Straits and turns northward into Sunday morning, per latest NHC guidance. ...Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley... Storms are likely to form along the cold front near 21Z from northern SD into north-central MN, with an increase in coverage and intensity through early evening. Moderate instability and favorable northwest flow aloft will favor large hail with the initial activity, with small cluster or perhaps an MCS producing damaging winds as outflow surges southward across eastern SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA. As such, the area has been upgraded to Slight Risk. ...Eastern States... Scattered storms will develop by early afternoon along the length of the front, within the very moist and heating air mass. Lapse rates aloft will be poor, and shear weak, but sporadic strong or damaging outflows/gusts will be possible within this large zone through early evening before the air mass is completely overturned and stabilized. ...FL Peninsula and Keys... Per latest NHC guidance, a Tropical Storm is expected to impact the region late Saturday and through the end of the Day 2 period. A very moist/tropical air mass will exist along and east of the center track, and a general increase in low-level shear is anticipated. As such, brief circulations may eventually develop with any of the stronger cells within eastern convective bands as they proceed across the Keys and the western FL Peninsula. A 2% tornado probability has been added for this possibility. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms with a low risk of damaging gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. A developing tropical cyclone may also impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving positive-tilt upper trough will affect much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Saturday, providing minor cooling aloft and modest southwest flow. A weak front will stretch from parts of New England southward into northern GA, with a moist air pass to the east with 70s F dewpoints. To the west, moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, on the southern periphery of a large Hudson Bay low. A surface low is expected over SD ahead of a cold front which will stretch roughly from the Black Hills into northern MN, with pockets of moisture aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, a disturbance now over Cuba is expected to become a Tropical Storm as it crosses the Florida Straits and turns northward into Sunday morning, per latest NHC guidance. ...Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley... Storms are likely to form along the cold front near 21Z from northern SD into north-central MN, with an increase in coverage and intensity through early evening. Moderate instability and favorable northwest flow aloft will favor large hail with the initial activity, with small cluster or perhaps an MCS producing damaging winds as outflow surges southward across eastern SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA. As such, the area has been upgraded to Slight Risk. ...Eastern States... Scattered storms will develop by early afternoon along the length of the front, within the very moist and heating air mass. Lapse rates aloft will be poor, and shear weak, but sporadic strong or damaging outflows/gusts will be possible within this large zone through early evening before the air mass is completely overturned and stabilized. ...FL Peninsula and Keys... Per latest NHC guidance, a Tropical Storm is expected to impact the region late Saturday and through the end of the Day 2 period. A very moist/tropical air mass will exist along and east of the center track, and a general increase in low-level shear is anticipated. As such, brief circulations may eventually develop with any of the stronger cells within eastern convective bands as they proceed across the Keys and the western FL Peninsula. A 2% tornado probability has been added for this possibility. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms with a low risk of damaging gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. A developing tropical cyclone may also impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving positive-tilt upper trough will affect much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Saturday, providing minor cooling aloft and modest southwest flow. A weak front will stretch from parts of New England southward into northern GA, with a moist air pass to the east with 70s F dewpoints. To the west, moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, on the southern periphery of a large Hudson Bay low. A surface low is expected over SD ahead of a cold front which will stretch roughly from the Black Hills into northern MN, with pockets of moisture aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, a disturbance now over Cuba is expected to become a Tropical Storm as it crosses the Florida Straits and turns northward into Sunday morning, per latest NHC guidance. ...Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley... Storms are likely to form along the cold front near 21Z from northern SD into north-central MN, with an increase in coverage and intensity through early evening. Moderate instability and favorable northwest flow aloft will favor large hail with the initial activity, with small cluster or perhaps an MCS producing damaging winds as outflow surges southward across eastern SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA. As such, the area has been upgraded to Slight Risk. ...Eastern States... Scattered storms will develop by early afternoon along the length of the front, within the very moist and heating air mass. Lapse rates aloft will be poor, and shear weak, but sporadic strong or damaging outflows/gusts will be possible within this large zone through early evening before the air mass is completely overturned and stabilized. ...FL Peninsula and Keys... Per latest NHC guidance, a Tropical Storm is expected to impact the region late Saturday and through the end of the Day 2 period. A very moist/tropical air mass will exist along and east of the center track, and a general increase in low-level shear is anticipated. As such, brief circulations may eventually develop with any of the stronger cells within eastern convective bands as they proceed across the Keys and the western FL Peninsula. A 2% tornado probability has been added for this possibility. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms with a low risk of damaging gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. A developing tropical cyclone may also impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving positive-tilt upper trough will affect much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Saturday, providing minor cooling aloft and modest southwest flow. A weak front will stretch from parts of New England southward into northern GA, with a moist air pass to the east with 70s F dewpoints. To the west, moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, on the southern periphery of a large Hudson Bay low. A surface low is expected over SD ahead of a cold front which will stretch roughly from the Black Hills into northern MN, with pockets of moisture aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, a disturbance now over Cuba is expected to become a Tropical Storm as it crosses the Florida Straits and turns northward into Sunday morning, per latest NHC guidance. ...Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley... Storms are likely to form along the cold front near 21Z from northern SD into north-central MN, with an increase in coverage and intensity through early evening. Moderate instability and favorable northwest flow aloft will favor large hail with the initial activity, with small cluster or perhaps an MCS producing damaging winds as outflow surges southward across eastern SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA. As such, the area has been upgraded to Slight Risk. ...Eastern States... Scattered storms will develop by early afternoon along the length of the front, within the very moist and heating air mass. Lapse rates aloft will be poor, and shear weak, but sporadic strong or damaging outflows/gusts will be possible within this large zone through early evening before the air mass is completely overturned and stabilized. ...FL Peninsula and Keys... Per latest NHC guidance, a Tropical Storm is expected to impact the region late Saturday and through the end of the Day 2 period. A very moist/tropical air mass will exist along and east of the center track, and a general increase in low-level shear is anticipated. As such, brief circulations may eventually develop with any of the stronger cells within eastern convective bands as they proceed across the Keys and the western FL Peninsula. A 2% tornado probability has been added for this possibility. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms with a low risk of damaging gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. A developing tropical cyclone may also impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving positive-tilt upper trough will affect much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Saturday, providing minor cooling aloft and modest southwest flow. A weak front will stretch from parts of New England southward into northern GA, with a moist air pass to the east with 70s F dewpoints. To the west, moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, on the southern periphery of a large Hudson Bay low. A surface low is expected over SD ahead of a cold front which will stretch roughly from the Black Hills into northern MN, with pockets of moisture aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, a disturbance now over Cuba is expected to become a Tropical Storm as it crosses the Florida Straits and turns northward into Sunday morning, per latest NHC guidance. ...Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley... Storms are likely to form along the cold front near 21Z from northern SD into north-central MN, with an increase in coverage and intensity through early evening. Moderate instability and favorable northwest flow aloft will favor large hail with the initial activity, with small cluster or perhaps an MCS producing damaging winds as outflow surges southward across eastern SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA. As such, the area has been upgraded to Slight Risk. ...Eastern States... Scattered storms will develop by early afternoon along the length of the front, within the very moist and heating air mass. Lapse rates aloft will be poor, and shear weak, but sporadic strong or damaging outflows/gusts will be possible within this large zone through early evening before the air mass is completely overturned and stabilized. ...FL Peninsula and Keys... Per latest NHC guidance, a Tropical Storm is expected to impact the region late Saturday and through the end of the Day 2 period. A very moist/tropical air mass will exist along and east of the center track, and a general increase in low-level shear is anticipated. As such, brief circulations may eventually develop with any of the stronger cells within eastern convective bands as they proceed across the Keys and the western FL Peninsula. A 2% tornado probability has been added for this possibility. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms with a low risk of damaging gusts may impact the Southeastern Piedmont and adjacent portions of the coastal plain into northern Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon and evening. A developing tropical cyclone may also impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving positive-tilt upper trough will affect much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Saturday, providing minor cooling aloft and modest southwest flow. A weak front will stretch from parts of New England southward into northern GA, with a moist air pass to the east with 70s F dewpoints. To the west, moderate northwest flow aloft will exist across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, on the southern periphery of a large Hudson Bay low. A surface low is expected over SD ahead of a cold front which will stretch roughly from the Black Hills into northern MN, with pockets of moisture aiding destabilization. Meanwhile, a disturbance now over Cuba is expected to become a Tropical Storm as it crosses the Florida Straits and turns northward into Sunday morning, per latest NHC guidance. ...Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley... Storms are likely to form along the cold front near 21Z from northern SD into north-central MN, with an increase in coverage and intensity through early evening. Moderate instability and favorable northwest flow aloft will favor large hail with the initial activity, with small cluster or perhaps an MCS producing damaging winds as outflow surges southward across eastern SD, southwest MN, and northwest IA. As such, the area has been upgraded to Slight Risk. ...Eastern States... Scattered storms will develop by early afternoon along the length of the front, within the very moist and heating air mass. Lapse rates aloft will be poor, and shear weak, but sporadic strong or damaging outflows/gusts will be possible within this large zone through early evening before the air mass is completely overturned and stabilized. ...FL Peninsula and Keys... Per latest NHC guidance, a Tropical Storm is expected to impact the region late Saturday and through the end of the Day 2 period. A very moist/tropical air mass will exist along and east of the center track, and a general increase in low-level shear is anticipated. As such, brief circulations may eventually develop with any of the stronger cells within eastern convective bands as they proceed across the Keys and the western FL Peninsula. A 2% tornado probability has been added for this possibility. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 Read more