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WW 590 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ PA CW 022005Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Northeast Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will track across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Dover DE to 20 miles north northeast of Lakehurst NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Hart Read more

MD 1797 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN VA AND FAR NORTHERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1797 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern VA and far northern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022134Z - 022300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to occasionally severe storms may pose a risk for isolated wind damage late this afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, scattered thunderstorms ongoing over the central Appalachians have gradually coalesced into a loosely organized cluster across parts of southern VA and far northern NC. The environment ahead of this cluster is very warm and unstable with temperatures in the 90s F and 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. However, very limited deep-layer shear is in place, with most VADs showing generally less than 20 kt. While modest in organization, the fairly pronounced cold pool moving into plentiful buoyancy should continue to support strong transient updrafts. The high PWAT air mass and pulse-like nature of the convection should also support occasional stronger downdrafts within the collapsing cores. Isolated damaging winds are possible along with a low-end risk of higher gusts to 50-60 mph. Displaced away from deeper forcing for ascent and flow aloft, storm organization will remain tied to the propagation along and ahead of the outflow. This should remain fairly limited in scope, and a WW is unlikely. ..Lyons/Smith.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 37897821 38087755 38107730 37997671 37637633 37007605 36817596 36547611 36367665 36327699 36337849 36547921 37247870 37657841 37897821 Read more

A fruit grower in Washington County lost several major crops due to the drought. The loss of blueberries and black raspberries has been quite severe. The peaches were smaller than usual. The heavy use of the irrigation system has driven up the electric bill. The farmer estimated that drought has cost him about $6,000 overall. Athens County Independent (Ohio), Aug 1, 2024

A farmer estimated that he has spent between $750 and $1,500 to care for the 60 cattle and hogs. The livestock have consumed more water than usual. Pasture grasses have been slow to grow back. Athens County Independent (Ohio), Aug 1, 2024

A tanker truck filled with service water has been sent to the town of Thomas in Tucker County because the town’s water supply has been unusable for the past month due to high iron levels. WDTV-TV CBS 5 (Bridgeport, W.V.), Aug 2, 2024

MD 1796 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WY...NE PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1796 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...Southeast WY...NE Panhandle...Northeast CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022049Z - 022245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible across the region this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed in the upper 90s/low 100s amid strong boundary-layer mixing across the central High Plains. This strong mixing has dropped dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s, which is still sufficient for airmass destabilization, with little to no convective inhibition remaining on recent mesoanalysis. Given that this region is beneath the upper ridge, mid to upper level flow is weak. Even so, modest vertical shear is still possible across the region given the strong veering from surface southeasterlies to modest mid-level northwesterlies. Recent mesoanalysis estimates effective bulk shear around 30 kt. While this is likely enough shear for some modest updraft organization, the combination of modest buoyancy with this modest shear will likely prevent an organization storm mode. However, given the high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates, a few damaging gusts may occur as updrafts collapse. ..Mosier/Hart.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39180378 38820480 39250493 39910529 41190524 41820530 42340543 42820574 42930500 42800359 42150255 41020268 39180378 Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ILG TO 10 NNW ILG TO 10 W TTN TO 20 NNE TTN TO 30 NW EWR. ..LYONS..08/02/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-022240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-011-015-025-029-035-041-510-022240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CAROLINE CECIL HARFORD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-023-025-029-033-035-022240- Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ILG TO 10 NNW ILG TO 10 W TTN TO 20 NNE TTN TO 30 NW EWR. ..LYONS..08/02/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-022240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-011-015-025-029-035-041-510-022240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CAROLINE CECIL HARFORD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-023-025-029-033-035-022240- Read more

Hay has not regrown enough to make a second cutting in Bowman County due to the lack of moisture. A farmer expects that his corn yield will be down 20% to 30%. KFYR Your News Leader (Bismarck, N.D.), Aug 2, 2024

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022038 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 While Carlotta remains a small hurricane, its structure appears rather healthy, with a distinct central dense overcast and a clouded over eye appearing on visible or infrared imagery. There was also a GPM microwave pass at 1623 UTC which showed a well-organized inner-core with a small eyewall. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate was T4.5/77-kt, and objective estimates range from 65-82 kt, so the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt for this advisory. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were adjusted some thanks to a helpful afternoon scatterometer pass. Carlotta is moving a little more westward this afternoon, estimated at 280/12 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast philosophy, with well-established ridging poleward of Carlotta expected to maintain this westward to west-northwestward heading over the next several days, albeit with a gradual slowdown. By the end of the forecast as Carlotta loses its deep convection, it will turn westward as it primarily becomes steered by the low-level flow. The track guidance was little changed from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory. The hurricane has another 24 hours over sufficently warm waters and light to moderate vertical wind shear to intensify a bit more, and the NHC intensity forecast maintains a peak intensity at 85 kt, or Category 2 intensity. However, Carlotta then moves over less than 26 C sea surface temperatures beyond that time frame, and this coupled with the hurricane moving into increasingly dry and stable air, should induce gradual weakening. This process will also be hastened by increasing southwesterly shear beyond 60 h, and Carlotta will likely lose convective organization sometime in the days 4 or 5 time-frame, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is in pretty good agreement with the consensus intensity aids, and is a little lower after 24 hours than the prior NHC intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.7N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.6N 122.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.0N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 22.5N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 20:38:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Aug 2024 21:29:00 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 022037 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 3 85(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 120W 50 X 39(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 120W 64 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 49(64) 8(72) X(72) X(72) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 022037 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 116.4W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 116.4W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.6N 122.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 128.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 022037 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...HURRICANE CARLOTTA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 116.4W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 116.4 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a general westward to west-northwestward motion with a gradual slowdown is forecasted over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by weakening beginning by early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...HURRICANE CARLOTTA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.7, -116.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

MD 1795 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1795 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...parts of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021945Z - 022045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An intensifying cluster of thunderstorms over northeast MD and eastern PA may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts this afternoon. A WW is uncertain though convective trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 1940 UTC, regional radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Over the last hour, a cluster near the MD/PA border has slowly intensified with a notable increase in lightning and reflectively. Likely supported by subtle ascent from a passing shortwave and remnant convective outflows, 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely continue to support strong updraft development/maintenance. Vertical shear is quite limited with flow generally less than 25 kt. Storm intensity will likely remain tied to forward propagation along advancing outflow with this cluster. The moderate buoyancy and large water loading will likely support a isolated stronger downdrafts with low-end potential for 50-60 mph gusts. Storms should track east/northeast through the afternoon across parts of eastern PA into NJ. Storm organization appears quite limited. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40407573 40777465 40767419 40477393 39847432 39497479 39417523 39397569 39417606 39447623 39597646 39717638 40407573 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level ridge positioned over the West will continue to break down throughout the extended forecast period, as a mid-level short-wave trough traverses the northern Rockies on D3/Sun into the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes by D5/Tue and D6/Wed. In the wake of this trough, primarily zonal flow will take hold across much of the Northwest while the upper-level ridge flattens/elongates and settles into the southern Great Basin region. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Despite slightly cooler conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies, dry thunderstorm potential will persist across this region through early next week. Fuels across the West remain at least marginally receptive despite recent precipitation while gradually trending up in receptivity throughout the forecast period. The area delineating dry thunderstorm potential on D3/Sun has been confined to the region where confidence in 10% coverage of dry thunderstorms is the highest in more direct association with the passing mid-level trough. Areas within and adjacent to Nevada have been removed, where storm coverage now appears too sparse to warrant highlights, but this area may need to be reconsidered in later outlooks as mesoscale predictability becomes more evident. Additionally, storm coverage across southwest Montana combined with higher PWAT values may promote more wet thunderstorms, though fuels should remain supportive for large-fire spread and the 10% probabilities have been maintained. On D4/Mon, the isolated dry thunder area has been maintained this outlook cycle where enough residual subtropical moisture may linger to promote afternoon thunderstorms and dry lightning potential. ...Wind/RH... Afternoon hot/dry conditions will increase with time across portions of the northern Great Basin. This may eventually result in elevated fire-weather potential by the middle of next week for a few sub regions, but predictability in such localized areas remains too low to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more