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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FROM THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT TO THE DELAWARE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle and southwest Florida. ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/03/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 3 16:26:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Update... Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area for today. The area was extended across more of central MT, and to just north of the Four Corners over southwestern CO where PWAT values should remain below 1". Other regions like northern AZ were considered, but deeper moisture through the lower levels should promote wetting rainfall. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel disturbance will move northward along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest late afternoon into the evening. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana this afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Portions of the previous isolated dry thunderstorm risk were removed across central/northern California and central Oregon, where precipitable water values 1.00"+ will likely permit wetting rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 967 WTPZ44 KNHC 031448 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Over the last several days, we have been monitoring the area of low pressure located in the western part of the east Pacific basin, currently near 130W. The deep convection with the system has been pulsing during this time, and has been showing evidence of organization. In fact, TAFB has been providing Dvorak intensity estimates of CI-2.0/30 kt over the past day, and SAB more recently provided a Data-T of 2.0/30 kt at 12 UTC. Overnight, scatterometer wind data showed a well-defined circulation and peak winds of 35-40 kt west of the center. Some of these winds may have been rain- inflated, but the coverage was broad enough that it is likely that tropical storm force winds exist with the circulation. The combination of these data suggest that the low has become a Tropical Storm, and advisories are being initiated on Daniel with an intensity of 35 kt. The tropical storm has been meandering, but the current motion is estimated to be slowly off to the northwest at 315/4 kt. Over the next day or two, Daniel is expected to be embedded in southwesterly monsoonal flow that is shifting northward ahead of Hurricane Carlotta. This flow is expected to result in Daniel soon turning northward and then northeastward as it remains embedded in this flow. After 48 h, The storm may pivot back toward the north and north-northwest as it becomes captures by Carlotta's larger outer circulation. The track guidance does have a significant amount of spread beyond 48 h related to how much Carlotta captures the smaller Daniel, with the initial track forecast electing to go in between the HCCA and TCVE consensus aids, which also roughly splits the difference between the GFS and ECMWF tracks. The environment Daniel has been and will be embedded in is not very favorable for much additional intensification, with moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level relative humidity. Only a modest amount of strengthening is shown in the short-term, and ultimately Daniel is likely to get caught up in Carlotta's circulation, finally being absorbed by the larger cyclone after day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the guidance, close to SHIPS and HCCA intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 12.6N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 12.8N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 14.4N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 15.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 14:46:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 15:34:42 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 120 WTPZ34 KNHC 031445 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN EAST PACIFIC BASIN... ...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 130.0W ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 130.0 West. Daniel is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is anticipated over the next several days with a gradual increase in forward speed. Satellite-wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two with some gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin