Aggregator

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 032039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 032039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...DANIEL DRIFTING FOR NOW BUT EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 130.4W ABOUT 1530 MI...2465 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 130.4 West. Daniel is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A motion toward the northeast is expected to begin over the next several days with a gradual increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two with some gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DANIEL DRIFTING FOR NOW BUT EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTHEASTWARD SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Daniel was located near 12.3, -130.4 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 032038 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 12.8N 130.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.3N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

MD 1803 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1803 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...northern Minnesota into eastern North Dakota and far northeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031809Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated cells may produce hail at times over parts of northern Minnesota over the next couple hours. A greater risk of severe hail and wind will then materialize later this afternoon farther west with watch probability increasing. DISCUSSION...Scattered cells persist north of a quasi-stationary front across northern MN, as cooling aloft gradually sinks south. Most storms this morning have been short-lived but a longer-lived storms has developed with large hail reported. Given gradual warming south of this boundary and southwest winds just off the surface, these cells (though isolated) may persist as deep-layer shear is favorable, with hail potential. A greater risk of severe storms will likely develop by 21Z or so, farther west along the cold front and where instability will become stronger and surface based. Both large hail and damaging winds are expected to develop from far southeast ND and northeast SD into west-central MN, and a watch will likely be issued for that regime. ..Jewell.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46759352 46579460 46319537 46039606 45559689 45379766 45579842 46039858 46699826 47169722 47199692 47539518 47669399 47589308 47319218 47019191 46669245 46759352 Read more

MD 1804 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...THE DELMARVA AND INTO WESTERN NEW JERSEY/SOUTHERN NEW YORK.
Mesoscale Discussion 1804 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania...the DelMarVA and into western New Jersey/southern New York. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 591... Valid 031853Z - 032000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 591 continues. SUMMARY...Gradual upscale growth into bands and clusters is possible through this evening. Damaging gusts are likely across WW591. DISCUSSION...The severe risk continues with scattered storms ongoing across WW591 as of mid afternoon. Remaining inhibition has largely been negated and additional storm development/intensification should continue across much of the mid Atlantic. A few stronger cells have emerged over eastern PA and northern MD/VA over the last couple of hours. Early indications are that these storms may gradually evolve into more organized clusters or linear segments with time owing to the modest mid-level shear. Recent HRRR guidance also suggests continued intensification is possible this afternoon. Damaging gusts (some to as much as 60-70 mph) are possible with the strongest storms should they begin to consolidate. Additional storms may also develop through the day with at least an isolated severe risk possible with any longer-lived clusters. ..Lyons.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39917825 40717717 41187605 41387536 41397467 41187410 41037387 40857389 40607405 40187457 39837512 39457657 39347695 39227731 39917825 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more