Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... By D3/Monday, a mid to upper-level ridge will slowly begin to extend eastward over the Southern Plains, and remain in place over the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week, and especially by D6/Thursday, heights will begin to fall within the ridge over the northwestern CONUS as mid-level shortwave troughs move atop it. Quasi-zonal flow will transpire from the Pacific Northwest eastward through the Upper Atlantic into most of the extended forecast period. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A mid to upper-level plume of monsoonal moisture rotating around the ridge D3/Monday will present the opportunity for additional isolated dry thunderstorm chances from the northern to central Rockies, where a drier boundary layer and receptive fuel conditions will reside. Although similar chances are expected D4/Tuesday, increasing moisture through the troposphere should narrow this potential area to a portion of the northern Rockies from western MT, southeastward into western and central WY. ...Wind and RH... Increasing westerly winds will develop across portions of the northwestern Great Basin and Snake River Plain D3/Monday through D5/Wednesday on the northern periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge. The mostly likely time for the highest sustained surface wind speeds appears to be Tuesday into Wednesday via a mid-level jet accompanying a Pacific shortwave trough traversing the northern Rockies, and an increasing surface pressure gradient. Although temperatures will be relatively cooler, a dry boundary layer will remain in place keeping critical minimum RH in present during the afternoons. However, most of these critical weather conditions should overlap with recovering fuels precluding the need for a 40 percent Critical probability area at this time. The exception may be across far northwestern NV. ..Barnes.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1805 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1805 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...much of southern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031917Z - 032145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief/weak tornado remain possible across southern Florida today, but a watch is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating along with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints is resulting in moderate instability, which is aiding a band of convection over far southern FL. Additional cells east of the main band are noted on radar, with signs of outflow surges pushing northwestward. Thus far, low-level shear has not strengthened much. Area VWPs indicate 0-1 SRH values generally in the 75-100 m2/s2 range, which is on the low-end for tornado potential. However, as the TC deepens and low-level convergence increases, some of these bands could become a bit better organized, at which time the stronger cells could exhibit transient mesocyclones. Otherwise, moderate mean winds in the lowest few km will favor strong to locally damaging wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... LAT...LON 26178205 26898248 27478282 27958283 28268216 28028127 27388032 26807993 26017996 25408010 24908050 24558131 24418208 24658221 25598211 26178205 Read more

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807 ..THORNTON..08/03/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...CAE...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-003-007-015-025-033-035-037-045-057-059-063-067-069-071- 077-081-085-091-093-097-105-109-119-123-125-131-135-145-151-153- 157-159-165-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-197-032240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON BERTIE CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CLEVELAND DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE IREDELL LEE LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM ROWAN SCOTLAND STANLY STOKES SURRY UNION VANCE WAKE WARREN YADKIN SCC021-023-025-039-047-055-057-059-063-071-079-081-083-087-091- Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-032240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-032240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-032240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- Read more

WW 0592 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/03/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...CAE...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-003-007-015-025-033-035-037-045-057-059-063-067-069-071- 077-081-085-091-093-097-105-109-119-123-125-131-135-145-151-153- 157-159-165-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-197-032140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON BERTIE CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CLEVELAND DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE IREDELL LEE LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM ROWAN SCOTLAND STANLY STOKES SURRY UNION VANCE WAKE WARREN YADKIN SCC021-023-025-039-047-055-057-059-063-071-079-081-083-087-091- 032140- Read more

WW 0591 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 591 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-032140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD DEC001-003-005-032140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-032140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 20:44:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 21:29:07 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 228 WTPZ43 KNHC 032042 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Carlotta appears to have peaked in intensity earlier today, as the core convection on the west side has eroded a bit this afternoon, leading to a slightly less symmetric structure. A pair of recent ASCAT passes indicate that the low-level wind structure is fairly symmetric, with winds over 50 kt in all quadrants. The latest subjective CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are T-4.5/77 kt and the objective CIMSS intensity estimates range from 64 to 87 kt. The initial intensity has been nudged down to 75 kt based on a blend of the data and the slightly degraded structure noted on satellite imagery. Carlotta has been moving more westward and a bit slower, about 275/9-kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of Carlotta will keep the cyclone moving on a westward to west-northwestward course at a slightly slower forward speed during the next few days. After that time, Carlotta is expected to become more vertically shallow, which should ultimately cause the cyclone to turn back westward towards the end of the forecast period. Very little change has been made to the previous NHC forecast. Carlotta will be crossing the 26C SST isotherm by this evening. Beyond 24 hours, the wind shear is forecast to increase as the cyclone moves into a more stable environment. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, with more steady weakening after that time. Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday, as both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imageries show the cyclone losing its convection by that time. The remnant low should then dissipate later in the week. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.0N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.7N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Papin