Aggregator

...DANIEL LOITERING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Daniel was located near 12.3, -130.5 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 02:39:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 03:29:19 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 526 WTPZ43 KNHC 040237 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 The structure of Carlotta on conventional geostationary satellite imagery has been gradually becoming less impressive. Although the latest subjective CI numbers are still around 77 kt, the latest CIMSS objective intensity estimates have fallen to the 65-72 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 70 kt. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest, or 285/9 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of Carlotta will keep the cyclone moving on a west-northwestward course at a similar forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, Carlotta is expected to become more vertically shallow, which should ultimately cause the cyclone to turn westward within the low-level steering flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Carlotta has crossed the 26C SST isotherm this evening and is forecast to reach SSTs colder than 24C within the next 24 h. The cyclone is currently in a low-shear environment, but southwesterly shear is forecast to become much stronger in about 24 h. Carlotta will also be reaching a more stable environment by Sunday morning. The combination of these factors will cause continued weakening. Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday morning, as both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone losing its convection by that time. The remnant low should then dissipate later in the week. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids and is nearly identical to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.4N 121.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 21.7N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 21.6N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040237 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 12 75(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 125W 50 1 43(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 125W 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040237 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.9W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.9W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.3N 128.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.7N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.6N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040237 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ...CARLOTTA STARTING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 121.9W ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 121.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Monday, with a gradual turn towards the west by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight, with a more steady rate of weakening forecast on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

...CARLOTTA STARTING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.4, -121.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW RWF TO 45 SSE AXN TO 20 ENE STC TO 60 NNW EAU. ..LEITMAN..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ABR...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-019-025-037-053-059-067-085-093-123-139-141-163-171- 040340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA CARVER CHISAGO DAKOTA HENNEPIN ISANTI KANDIYOHI MCLEOD MEEKER RAMSEY SCOTT SHERBURNE WASHINGTON WRIGHT WIC093-095-109-040340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIERCE POLK ST. CROIX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ATY TO 40 ESE VVV TO 35 WNW STC TO 25 NNW BRD. ..LEITMAN..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ABR...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-019-023-025-035-037-053-059-065-067-073-085-093- 095-097-115-123-139-141-145-163-171-040240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO CROW WING DAKOTA HENNEPIN ISANTI KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON PINE RAMSEY SCOTT SHERBURNE STEARNS WASHINGTON WRIGHT SDC029-039-051-057-040240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CODINGTON DEUEL GRANT HAMLIN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Local severe risk may linger for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah. ...Discussion... Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the loss of diurnal heating. The most substantial risk -- which may last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of central and southern Minnesota. Here, moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms. This, combined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still 3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local severe risk will persist for a couple more hours. A few strong storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through mid-evening. Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Local severe risk may linger for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah. ...Discussion... Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the loss of diurnal heating. The most substantial risk -- which may last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of central and southern Minnesota. Here, moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms. This, combined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still 3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local severe risk will persist for a couple more hours. A few strong storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through mid-evening. Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Local severe risk may linger for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah. ...Discussion... Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the loss of diurnal heating. The most substantial risk -- which may last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of central and southern Minnesota. Here, moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms. This, combined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still 3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local severe risk will persist for a couple more hours. A few strong storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through mid-evening. Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Local severe risk may linger for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah. ...Discussion... Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the loss of diurnal heating. The most substantial risk -- which may last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of central and southern Minnesota. Here, moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms. This, combined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still 3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local severe risk will persist for a couple more hours. A few strong storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through mid-evening. Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Local severe risk may linger for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah. ...Discussion... Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the loss of diurnal heating. The most substantial risk -- which may last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of central and southern Minnesota. Here, moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms. This, combined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still 3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local severe risk will persist for a couple more hours. A few strong storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through mid-evening. Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Local severe risk may linger for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah. ...Discussion... Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the loss of diurnal heating. The most substantial risk -- which may last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of central and southern Minnesota. Here, moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms. This, combined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still 3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local severe risk will persist for a couple more hours. A few strong storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through mid-evening. Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Local severe risk may linger for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah. ...Discussion... Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the loss of diurnal heating. The most substantial risk -- which may last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of central and southern Minnesota. Here, moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms. This, combined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still 3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local severe risk will persist for a couple more hours. A few strong storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through mid-evening. Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Local severe risk may linger for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah. ...Discussion... Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the loss of diurnal heating. The most substantial risk -- which may last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of central and southern Minnesota. Here, moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms. This, combined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still 3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local severe risk will persist for a couple more hours. A few strong storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through mid-evening. Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Local severe risk may linger for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah. ...Discussion... Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the loss of diurnal heating. The most substantial risk -- which may last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of central and southern Minnesota. Here, moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms. This, combined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still 3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local severe risk will persist for a couple more hours. A few strong storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through mid-evening. Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW JERSEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. Local severe risk may linger for a couple more hours over parts East Coast states, across portions of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, and parts of Utah. ...Discussion... Severe threat has begun to wane across much of the U.S. with the loss of diurnal heating. The most substantial risk -- which may last the remainder of the evening -- is ongoing across parts of central and southern Minnesota. Here, moderate mid-level west-northwesterlies atop a low-level wind field that veers with height is resulting in ample shear for organized storms. This, combined with a strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE still 3000 to 4000 J/kg per RAP-based objective analysis) is supporting a cluster of intense storms over central Minnesota, remaining capable of producing very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, a loosely organized cluster of strong storms is moving northeastward across southern New Jersey at this time, where local severe risk will persist for a couple more hours. A few strong storms are also moving southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, which may pose a risk for locally damaging winds through mid-evening. Finally, convection associated with the outer bands of developing T.S. Debby will continue affecting portions of southern and western Florida, where a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening/overnight. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW VVV TO 15 NE AXN TO 30 E DTL. ..LEITMAN..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ABR...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-011-019-021-023-025-035-037-041-053-059-065-067- 073-085-093-095-097-115-121-123-139-141-145-149-151-153-159-163- 171-040140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BIG STONE CARVER CASS CHIPPEWA CHISAGO CROW WING DAKOTA DOUGLAS HENNEPIN ISANTI KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON PINE POPE RAMSEY SCOTT SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS SWIFT TODD WADENA WASHINGTON WRIGHT SDC029-039-051-057-040140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more