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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

MD 1813 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1813 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Areas affected...portions of the western and central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041432Z - 041600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Increasing diurnal heating on the outer envelope of intensifying TC Debby will likely support supercell development through much of the Day. Intensifying low-level shear may support a few tornadoes. A new Tornado Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...As of 1425 UTC, regional radar analysis placed the developing center of intensifying TC Debby approximately 105 nm west-southwest of KTBW. Latest NHC projections show continued intensification of the system west of the FL Peninsula. To the east of the main envelope of the TC, diurnal heating has commenced inland with temperatures warming into the mid 80s F. As heating continues, moderate buoyancy will likely support the development of scattered thunderstorms on the outer convergence bands. As the TC deepens, low-level wind fields should intensify through the morning and early afternoon. area VADs already show 0-1km SRH around 200-250 m2/s2 with weak mesocyclones noted within some of the stronger convective elements. As low-level shear intensifies, continued low-level updraft rotation appears probable with mini supercell structures. A few tornadoes are likely as storms intensify within the deepening buoyancy and stronger shear regime. Model guidance and observational trends suggest tornado potential is highest where the low-level flow retains the most easterly component, roughly along and north of the I-4 corridor later today. However, given the expected intensification of Debby, tornadoes will be possible across much of the western and central Peninsula as the bands move onshore and encounter stronger shear/buoyancy. Given the increasing risk for tornadoes, a Tornado Watch will likely be needed. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 25778137 26018176 26418191 26728223 27758282 28658270 29208306 29778348 30088398 30128424 30438424 30638396 30638301 30478247 29388163 28708135 27838109 26708098 26248100 25668119 25778137 Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0594 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0594 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0594 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0594 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:39:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:29:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:41:02 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:36:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:35:04 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Daniel's convective structure continues to sputter along, with the coldest cloud tops organized in two regions to the northeast and southwest of the center, which appears to be mostly exposed this morning. The latest round of both subjective and objective intensity guidance has not changed much from overnight, and so the initial intensity remains 35 kt this advisory. It appears that the tropical storm is finally starting to track more north-northeastward this morning, with the estimated motion at 030/4 kt. A somewhat faster northeastward motion is expected to begin later today through Monday as Daniel's motion is influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal flow being picked up by Carlotta passing to the north. The global models still show a turn north and northwestward as Daniel gets caught in the outer periphery of Carlotta's larger circulation. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior advisory, close to the multi-model consensus. While the vertical wind shear that was previously affecting Daniel is starting to subside, there is quite a bit of environmental dry air to the north of the storm, which will likely keep it in check, and only a modest amount of intensification is forecasted. After 48 h, this dry air is expected to fully envelop the circulation, choking off the remaining convection, marking the storm's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low is finally forecast to open up into a trough by midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.2N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 041435 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 125W 50 23 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 125W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041435 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Carlotta's deep convection has become quite limited this morning. Subjective Dvorak and objective satellite estimates like the UW-CIMSS ADT are all decreasing, and support an initial intensity estimate of 55 kt. No changes of note were made to the NHC forecast, and further weakening should continue as Carlotta moves over SSTs that are already below 25 deg C. The SSTs will only get colder during the next couple of days as Carlotta moves along the forecast track. The tropical storm is forecast by most models to lose its remaining deep convection in about 48 h, and based on current trends this could occur even sooner. Dissipation is still expected around mid-week. The tropical storm is still moving westward to west-northwestward. This general motion should continue for the next day or two as Carlotta is steered by a deep-layer ridge centered well to its northeast. As the cyclone weakens further and becomes more vertically shallow, low-level steering will likely cause it to turn westward and slow down slightly in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.9N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.7N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.1N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 21.3N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 21.3N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 21.2N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 662 WTPZ45 KNHC 041435 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 Convection associated with a low located well offshore Mexico has steadily increased in coverage and organization since yesterday. Overnight ASCAT and first-light visible imagery indicate that the cyclone also has a well-defined, if somewhat broad, circulation. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 2.0 at 1200 UTC, which support initiating advisories on the system as a 30 kt depression. The depression is located within a very convectively active environment over the east Pacific, deep-layer wind shear is low, and SSTs are plenty warm, so strengthening is expected in the short term. The biggest source of uncertainty for this forecast is an expected interaction with a larger disturbance, currently Invest 96E, which is approaching from the east. Based on the available global and hurricane dynamical model forecasts, the most likely scenario is that 96E will be the dominant system. In that case, the new depression will only have a short window to strengthen before it is wrapped into and dissipates within the other circulation. Models historically handle interaction cases like this poorly, so confidence in the forecast is not high, despite the near universal agreement between the dynamical guidance on this upcoming evolution. The NHC forecast is very close to the consensus guidance through 24 to 36 h. After that, the model trackers appear to be getting fooled by the close proximity of 96E and TD Five-E and are following the stronger vortex instead. The NHC forecast is based heavily on a broad consensus of model fields beyond 36 h and shows dissipation occuring by 60 h. There is some chance that the depression could persist longer than forecast if the two systems remain farther apart, however there is not enough guidance with a trackable vortex to justify an explicit forecast beyond what is currently shown. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.8N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.4N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.5N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 14.1N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 663 WTPZ23 KNHC 041435 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 124.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 124.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 123.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.7N 127.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.1N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.3N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.2N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 124.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 661 WTPZ33 KNHC 041435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...CARLOTTA SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 124.0W ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 124.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected for the next day or two. Carlotta's forward motion is forecast to slow down gradually as it becomes a remnant low in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula are expected to diminish today. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

...CARLOTTA SLOWLY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.9, -124.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.