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Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 14(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042038 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 The depression has changed little in organization today, as a broad area of showers and thunderstorms with some modest banding is present on the western side of the low-level circulation. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and a partial ASCAT-C pass at 1747 UTC both suggest that the initial intensity remains 30 kt this afternoon. The track forecast for TD Five-E is very dependent on a disturbance to the east of the system (96E), which has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next day or so. Most of the global models show both of these systems interacting with and rotating cyclonically around each other. A variety of different model solutions are depicted, from TD Five-E becoming absorbed by the larger 96E, to TD Five-E remaining dominant, or a near equal merger of both systems in the 48-60 h forecast time frame. For this cycle, the NHC track forecast still shows TD Five-E being absorbed by 96E and dissipating beyond 48 h, though this is far from certain. It is possible one of the other two scenarios mentioned above could pan out. Most of the track guidance due to the interaction initially show a southward motion that swings rapidly back north or northwest over the next couple of days before the vortex trackers cannot distinguish between the two systems. As mentioned this morning though, dynamical models historically handle interaction cases like this poorly, so confidence in the track forecast is quite low, despite the agreement between the dynamical guidance of this binary interaction. Until the disturbance to the east starts to interact with TD Five-E, the environment appears relatively favorable for some intensification, and the NHC intensity forecast shows strengthening into a 45 kt tropical storm over the next 24-36 h, prior to the system's forecast absorption. Note that the interaction of the two systems also results in a dramatic expansion of the 34-kt wind radii by 48 h, which should be considered more of the combined wind field of both features. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 14.8N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 13.9N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 13.7N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 15.2N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING AND HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Aug 4 the center of Five-E was located near 15.5, -113.2 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 042037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 113.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 113.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.8N 113.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.9N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.7N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.2N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEPRESSION DRIFTING AND HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 113.2W ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 113.2 West. The depression is drifting toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow generally southward motion is expected to continue into Monday. A sharp turn back toward the north or northwest is possible by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected and the depression forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow. The cyclone will then begin to interact with a large disturbance approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to dissipate or merge with the large disturbance in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 20:37:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 21:35:24 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 While the overall convective activity has increased some this afternoon, it certainly is not very well organized, and mainly occuring in a bursting like fashion around Daniel's circulation. The wind field itself also appears more elongated than 24 h ago, stretched from SW-to-NE, possibly due to interaction with the larger monsoonal flow. This elongated structure is also seen on a recent scatterometer pass. The subjective and objective intensity guidance continues to suggest the current intensity remains 35 kt. Daniel appears to have started its northeastward motion in earnest, with the estimated motion at 50/7-kt. This motion is forecast to continue over the next day or so as it remains embedded in the southwesterly monsoonal flow to the south of Carlotta. As that tropical storm passes by Daniel to the north, the model guidance shows Daniel being captured by Carlotta's larger cyclonic flow with a turn north and northwestward before it opens up into a trough. The NHC track forecast has not deviated much from the prior forecast, once again close to the multi-model consensus. Vertical wind shear has subsided over Daniel today, but the current elongated structure and bursting convection does not really argue for much in the way of intensification. Like the past few cycles, the NHC intensity forecast shows just a modest peak at 40 kt in 24 h. Mid-level environmental moisture decreases further after that time, with the global and regional-hurricane models showing convection fizzling and ceasing to be organized after 48 h, marking Daniel's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low should dissipate entirely during the middle part of this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.4N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.0N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 19.3N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 19.9N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 042035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 042035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DANIEL NOW MOVING NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 129.9W ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 129.9 West. Daniel is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DANIEL NOW MOVING NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Daniel was located near 13.4, -129.9 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 042035 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 129.9W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 129.9W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.3N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 129.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 20:35:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 21:29:21 GMT

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Carlotta was located near 19.9, -125.0 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 042032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 125.0W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 125.0W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 124.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.4N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.2N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 4 20:00:18 UTC 2024.

MD 1814 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK EASTWARD INTO MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1814 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Areas affected...far northern New York eastward into Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041734Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some storms may produce localized hail, primarily at or below severe levels, over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...On the periphery of an upper trough over Quebec, relatively cool midlevel temperatures extend southward into parts of New England. Daytime heating near a surface trough and also north of a more extensive cirrus shield is resulting in moderate destabilization from northern NY eastward into parts of ME. Wind profiles do not favor particularly organized storms, as winds below 500 mb are weak. However, stronger speeds exist in the upper levels which may aid venting somewhat. Overall, it appears that short-lived, strong storm cores capable of marginally severe hail will be the primary risk with these cells over the next few hours as they travel east/southeast across the narrow instability zone. ..Jewell.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 46146811 45056885 44496990 43337395 43437523 43887520 44297473 44957381 45057191 45567106 46167035 46696902 46486817 46146811 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area to include portions of the central Rockies within western CO, and to remove most of the ID panhandle where recent wetting rains occurred. Relative to today PWATs will decrease slightly Monday afternoon across portions of the northern Great Basin and Upper CO River Basin ahead of a shortwave trough. Most fuels within these regions, void of any recent precipitation, remain receptive to lightning ignitions. For additional details, please see the previous discussion. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Several shortwave disturbances moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will provide additional chances for thunderstorms across northern Nevada, Utah, Iowa, far western Wyoming, and Montana where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area to include portions of the central Rockies within western CO, and to remove most of the ID panhandle where recent wetting rains occurred. Relative to today PWATs will decrease slightly Monday afternoon across portions of the northern Great Basin and Upper CO River Basin ahead of a shortwave trough. Most fuels within these regions, void of any recent precipitation, remain receptive to lightning ignitions. For additional details, please see the previous discussion. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Several shortwave disturbances moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will provide additional chances for thunderstorms across northern Nevada, Utah, Iowa, far western Wyoming, and Montana where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area to include portions of the central Rockies within western CO, and to remove most of the ID panhandle where recent wetting rains occurred. Relative to today PWATs will decrease slightly Monday afternoon across portions of the northern Great Basin and Upper CO River Basin ahead of a shortwave trough. Most fuels within these regions, void of any recent precipitation, remain receptive to lightning ignitions. For additional details, please see the previous discussion. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Several shortwave disturbances moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will provide additional chances for thunderstorms across northern Nevada, Utah, Iowa, far western Wyoming, and Montana where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area to include portions of the central Rockies within western CO, and to remove most of the ID panhandle where recent wetting rains occurred. Relative to today PWATs will decrease slightly Monday afternoon across portions of the northern Great Basin and Upper CO River Basin ahead of a shortwave trough. Most fuels within these regions, void of any recent precipitation, remain receptive to lightning ignitions. For additional details, please see the previous discussion. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Several shortwave disturbances moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will provide additional chances for thunderstorms across northern Nevada, Utah, Iowa, far western Wyoming, and Montana where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more