Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Several shortwave disturbances moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will provide additional chances for thunderstorms across northern Nevada, Utah, Iowa, far western Wyoming, and Montana where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night across parts of the Northeast, the Upper Midwest, and northern Florida into southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will remain amplified across the northern mid-latitudes through this period, with an increasingly prominent embedded high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories amd a persistent downstream low only slowly continuing to migrate across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, another prominent high is forecast to continue to build along an axis extending from the southern Great Basin vicinity through the lower Mississippi Valley. Within the northwesterly to westerly flow between the Southwestern high and the Canadian low, it still appears that one vigorous short wave impulse will rapidly dig from northwestern Ontario through northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z Tuesday. Another more modest perturbation is forecast to dig east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer mean flow and shear along a southward advancing cold front across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern portions of the Great Lakes region, through New England, Monday into Monday night. A segment of this front may also surge southward through the mid to lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains, beneath the building mid-level ridge. Between the Southwestern ridge and another ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic, a tropical cyclone is now forecast to intensify into a hurricane prior to making landfall near the Florida Big Bend vicinity early Monday, before migrating slowly inland across northern Florida into adjacent southeastern Georgia by 12Z Tuesday. ...Upper Midwest into New England... Stronger potential instability will probably become focused within a narrow corridor along the front across parts of the Upper Midwest into southern portions of the Great Lakes region, beneath a remnant plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air. However, destabilization is expected to become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorm development near/just ahead of the front from the lee of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England by Monday afternoon. It appears that this will coincide with strengthening of westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 30-50+ kts, which probably will become supportive of organizing convective development through late Monday afternoon and evening. This may include a risk for severe hail, before the risk for damaging wind gusts becomes more prominent as activity spreads east-southeastward. While strengthening of flow may be a bit more modest across the Upper Midwest, it probably will still be sufficient to support a risk for organized severe thunderstorm development, given the thermodynamic environment. This may also include an evolving cluster, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, downstream of the mid-level perturbation approaching from the northern Rockies. ...Northern Florida into southern Georgia... It still appears that the approaching tropical cyclone will probably be accompanied at least some risk for convection capable of producing tornadoes. Some modifications have been made to the tornado probabilities, to account for the latest adjustments to the official forecast track and intensity. ..Kerr.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night across parts of the Northeast, the Upper Midwest, and northern Florida into southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will remain amplified across the northern mid-latitudes through this period, with an increasingly prominent embedded high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories amd a persistent downstream low only slowly continuing to migrate across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, another prominent high is forecast to continue to build along an axis extending from the southern Great Basin vicinity through the lower Mississippi Valley. Within the northwesterly to westerly flow between the Southwestern high and the Canadian low, it still appears that one vigorous short wave impulse will rapidly dig from northwestern Ontario through northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z Tuesday. Another more modest perturbation is forecast to dig east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer mean flow and shear along a southward advancing cold front across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern portions of the Great Lakes region, through New England, Monday into Monday night. A segment of this front may also surge southward through the mid to lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains, beneath the building mid-level ridge. Between the Southwestern ridge and another ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic, a tropical cyclone is now forecast to intensify into a hurricane prior to making landfall near the Florida Big Bend vicinity early Monday, before migrating slowly inland across northern Florida into adjacent southeastern Georgia by 12Z Tuesday. ...Upper Midwest into New England... Stronger potential instability will probably become focused within a narrow corridor along the front across parts of the Upper Midwest into southern portions of the Great Lakes region, beneath a remnant plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air. However, destabilization is expected to become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorm development near/just ahead of the front from the lee of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England by Monday afternoon. It appears that this will coincide with strengthening of westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 30-50+ kts, which probably will become supportive of organizing convective development through late Monday afternoon and evening. This may include a risk for severe hail, before the risk for damaging wind gusts becomes more prominent as activity spreads east-southeastward. While strengthening of flow may be a bit more modest across the Upper Midwest, it probably will still be sufficient to support a risk for organized severe thunderstorm development, given the thermodynamic environment. This may also include an evolving cluster, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, downstream of the mid-level perturbation approaching from the northern Rockies. ...Northern Florida into southern Georgia... It still appears that the approaching tropical cyclone will probably be accompanied at least some risk for convection capable of producing tornadoes. Some modifications have been made to the tornado probabilities, to account for the latest adjustments to the official forecast track and intensity. ..Kerr.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night across parts of the Northeast, the Upper Midwest, and northern Florida into southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will remain amplified across the northern mid-latitudes through this period, with an increasingly prominent embedded high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories amd a persistent downstream low only slowly continuing to migrate across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, another prominent high is forecast to continue to build along an axis extending from the southern Great Basin vicinity through the lower Mississippi Valley. Within the northwesterly to westerly flow between the Southwestern high and the Canadian low, it still appears that one vigorous short wave impulse will rapidly dig from northwestern Ontario through northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z Tuesday. Another more modest perturbation is forecast to dig east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer mean flow and shear along a southward advancing cold front across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern portions of the Great Lakes region, through New England, Monday into Monday night. A segment of this front may also surge southward through the mid to lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains, beneath the building mid-level ridge. Between the Southwestern ridge and another ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic, a tropical cyclone is now forecast to intensify into a hurricane prior to making landfall near the Florida Big Bend vicinity early Monday, before migrating slowly inland across northern Florida into adjacent southeastern Georgia by 12Z Tuesday. ...Upper Midwest into New England... Stronger potential instability will probably become focused within a narrow corridor along the front across parts of the Upper Midwest into southern portions of the Great Lakes region, beneath a remnant plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air. However, destabilization is expected to become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorm development near/just ahead of the front from the lee of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England by Monday afternoon. It appears that this will coincide with strengthening of westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 30-50+ kts, which probably will become supportive of organizing convective development through late Monday afternoon and evening. This may include a risk for severe hail, before the risk for damaging wind gusts becomes more prominent as activity spreads east-southeastward. While strengthening of flow may be a bit more modest across the Upper Midwest, it probably will still be sufficient to support a risk for organized severe thunderstorm development, given the thermodynamic environment. This may also include an evolving cluster, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, downstream of the mid-level perturbation approaching from the northern Rockies. ...Northern Florida into southern Georgia... It still appears that the approaching tropical cyclone will probably be accompanied at least some risk for convection capable of producing tornadoes. Some modifications have been made to the tornado probabilities, to account for the latest adjustments to the official forecast track and intensity. ..Kerr.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night across parts of the Northeast, the Upper Midwest, and northern Florida into southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will remain amplified across the northern mid-latitudes through this period, with an increasingly prominent embedded high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories amd a persistent downstream low only slowly continuing to migrate across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, another prominent high is forecast to continue to build along an axis extending from the southern Great Basin vicinity through the lower Mississippi Valley. Within the northwesterly to westerly flow between the Southwestern high and the Canadian low, it still appears that one vigorous short wave impulse will rapidly dig from northwestern Ontario through northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z Tuesday. Another more modest perturbation is forecast to dig east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer mean flow and shear along a southward advancing cold front across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern portions of the Great Lakes region, through New England, Monday into Monday night. A segment of this front may also surge southward through the mid to lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains, beneath the building mid-level ridge. Between the Southwestern ridge and another ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic, a tropical cyclone is now forecast to intensify into a hurricane prior to making landfall near the Florida Big Bend vicinity early Monday, before migrating slowly inland across northern Florida into adjacent southeastern Georgia by 12Z Tuesday. ...Upper Midwest into New England... Stronger potential instability will probably become focused within a narrow corridor along the front across parts of the Upper Midwest into southern portions of the Great Lakes region, beneath a remnant plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air. However, destabilization is expected to become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorm development near/just ahead of the front from the lee of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England by Monday afternoon. It appears that this will coincide with strengthening of westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 30-50+ kts, which probably will become supportive of organizing convective development through late Monday afternoon and evening. This may include a risk for severe hail, before the risk for damaging wind gusts becomes more prominent as activity spreads east-southeastward. While strengthening of flow may be a bit more modest across the Upper Midwest, it probably will still be sufficient to support a risk for organized severe thunderstorm development, given the thermodynamic environment. This may also include an evolving cluster, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, downstream of the mid-level perturbation approaching from the northern Rockies. ...Northern Florida into southern Georgia... It still appears that the approaching tropical cyclone will probably be accompanied at least some risk for convection capable of producing tornadoes. Some modifications have been made to the tornado probabilities, to account for the latest adjustments to the official forecast track and intensity. ..Kerr.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night across parts of the Northeast, the Upper Midwest, and northern Florida into southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will remain amplified across the northern mid-latitudes through this period, with an increasingly prominent embedded high centered over the Canadian Northwest Territories amd a persistent downstream low only slowly continuing to migrate across northern Quebec. In lower latitudes, another prominent high is forecast to continue to build along an axis extending from the southern Great Basin vicinity through the lower Mississippi Valley. Within the northwesterly to westerly flow between the Southwestern high and the Canadian low, it still appears that one vigorous short wave impulse will rapidly dig from northwestern Ontario through northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z Tuesday. Another more modest perturbation is forecast to dig east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. It appears that this will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer mean flow and shear along a southward advancing cold front across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern portions of the Great Lakes region, through New England, Monday into Monday night. A segment of this front may also surge southward through the mid to lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains, beneath the building mid-level ridge. Between the Southwestern ridge and another ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic, a tropical cyclone is now forecast to intensify into a hurricane prior to making landfall near the Florida Big Bend vicinity early Monday, before migrating slowly inland across northern Florida into adjacent southeastern Georgia by 12Z Tuesday. ...Upper Midwest into New England... Stronger potential instability will probably become focused within a narrow corridor along the front across parts of the Upper Midwest into southern portions of the Great Lakes region, beneath a remnant plume of warm, elevated mixed-layer air. However, destabilization is expected to become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorm development near/just ahead of the front from the lee of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England by Monday afternoon. It appears that this will coincide with strengthening of westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer on the order of 30-50+ kts, which probably will become supportive of organizing convective development through late Monday afternoon and evening. This may include a risk for severe hail, before the risk for damaging wind gusts becomes more prominent as activity spreads east-southeastward. While strengthening of flow may be a bit more modest across the Upper Midwest, it probably will still be sufficient to support a risk for organized severe thunderstorm development, given the thermodynamic environment. This may also include an evolving cluster, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, downstream of the mid-level perturbation approaching from the northern Rockies. ...Northern Florida into southern Georgia... It still appears that the approaching tropical cyclone will probably be accompanied at least some risk for convection capable of producing tornadoes. Some modifications have been made to the tornado probabilities, to account for the latest adjustments to the official forecast track and intensity. ..Kerr.. 08/04/2024 Read more

MD 1811 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593... FOR SOUTHERN MN INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1811 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Areas affected...southern MN into far north-central IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593... Valid 040456Z - 040630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 593 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and strong gusts for another hour or two across southern MN. Storm intensity should gradually wane with southward extent. DISCUSSION...An isolated cell on the western flank of the southward progressing cluster over southern MN may continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail and strong gusts in the short term. However, convection has gradually been weakening over the past hour or so as inhibition increases and instability decreases with southward extent. Outflow from convection further to the east has also been progressing westward across southeast MN, further limiting the warm sector airmass. Given trends, a downstream watch is not expected. ..Leitman.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 45039330 44109223 43869221 43499241 43219291 43159343 43219405 43389449 44619510 44769516 45039330 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are expected across parts of Florida and southeastern Georgia in conjunction with the approach of tropical system Debby. Elsewhere, strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing hail and/or damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the Northeast/New England, the northern High Plains, and parts of the Upper Midwest area. ...Florida/southern Georgia... Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to gradually strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center indicating that Debby will reach hurricane strength early Monday morning, prior to making landfall over the Big Bend region of Florida. As the storm strengthens, increasingly strong, clockwise-veering winds with height will yield low-level shear favorable for supercells within convective bands. Correspondingly, a few tornadoes are expected, with the risk area gradually shifting northward through the period in tandem with Debby's advance. ...Southeastern Montana and vicinity... A surface cold front extending northwest-to-southeast across the northern High Plains region, and differential heating over the higher terrain of southern Montana, should both provide a focus for isolated afternoon storm development. Given moderate mid-level westerlies accompanying a short-wave trough crossing Montana during the afternoon/evening, shear will be sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts. A couple of the strongest storms will likely be accompanied by wind/hail exceeding severe levels, with storms spreading eastward into portions of the western Dakotas through the evening/overnight. ...Eastern South Dakota to southwestern Wisconsin... Ahead of a weak vort max embedded within moderate west-northwesterly flow, diurnal heating in the vicinity of a very slow-moving cold front will yield ample airmass destabilization to support widely scattered afternoon storms over the eastern South Dakota vicinity. With time, some upscale growth may occur -- aided by development of an evening low-level jet, with a cluster of convection then spreading eastward across parts of southern Minnesota and Iowa, and eventually into southwestern Wisconsin. The strongest storms within the broader area of convection should prove capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds, and marginal hail, through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Near and south of a cool front sagging slowly southward across the St. Lawrence Valley area toward northern New England, daytime heating will support at least modest airmass destabilization. This combined with the gradual eastward advance of an upper short-wave trough should result in conditions favorable for development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Shear sufficient for multicell organization/clustering is anticipated, suggesting that a few of the stronger storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and/or marginally severe hail through mid evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are expected across parts of Florida and southeastern Georgia in conjunction with the approach of tropical system Debby. Elsewhere, strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing hail and/or damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the Northeast/New England, the northern High Plains, and parts of the Upper Midwest area. ...Florida/southern Georgia... Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to gradually strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center indicating that Debby will reach hurricane strength early Monday morning, prior to making landfall over the Big Bend region of Florida. As the storm strengthens, increasingly strong, clockwise-veering winds with height will yield low-level shear favorable for supercells within convective bands. Correspondingly, a few tornadoes are expected, with the risk area gradually shifting northward through the period in tandem with Debby's advance. ...Southeastern Montana and vicinity... A surface cold front extending northwest-to-southeast across the northern High Plains region, and differential heating over the higher terrain of southern Montana, should both provide a focus for isolated afternoon storm development. Given moderate mid-level westerlies accompanying a short-wave trough crossing Montana during the afternoon/evening, shear will be sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts. A couple of the strongest storms will likely be accompanied by wind/hail exceeding severe levels, with storms spreading eastward into portions of the western Dakotas through the evening/overnight. ...Eastern South Dakota to southwestern Wisconsin... Ahead of a weak vort max embedded within moderate west-northwesterly flow, diurnal heating in the vicinity of a very slow-moving cold front will yield ample airmass destabilization to support widely scattered afternoon storms over the eastern South Dakota vicinity. With time, some upscale growth may occur -- aided by development of an evening low-level jet, with a cluster of convection then spreading eastward across parts of southern Minnesota and Iowa, and eventually into southwestern Wisconsin. The strongest storms within the broader area of convection should prove capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds, and marginal hail, through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Near and south of a cool front sagging slowly southward across the St. Lawrence Valley area toward northern New England, daytime heating will support at least modest airmass destabilization. This combined with the gradual eastward advance of an upper short-wave trough should result in conditions favorable for development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Shear sufficient for multicell organization/clustering is anticipated, suggesting that a few of the stronger storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and/or marginally severe hail through mid evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are expected across parts of Florida and southeastern Georgia in conjunction with the approach of tropical system Debby. Elsewhere, strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing hail and/or damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the Northeast/New England, the northern High Plains, and parts of the Upper Midwest area. ...Florida/southern Georgia... Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to gradually strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center indicating that Debby will reach hurricane strength early Monday morning, prior to making landfall over the Big Bend region of Florida. As the storm strengthens, increasingly strong, clockwise-veering winds with height will yield low-level shear favorable for supercells within convective bands. Correspondingly, a few tornadoes are expected, with the risk area gradually shifting northward through the period in tandem with Debby's advance. ...Southeastern Montana and vicinity... A surface cold front extending northwest-to-southeast across the northern High Plains region, and differential heating over the higher terrain of southern Montana, should both provide a focus for isolated afternoon storm development. Given moderate mid-level westerlies accompanying a short-wave trough crossing Montana during the afternoon/evening, shear will be sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts. A couple of the strongest storms will likely be accompanied by wind/hail exceeding severe levels, with storms spreading eastward into portions of the western Dakotas through the evening/overnight. ...Eastern South Dakota to southwestern Wisconsin... Ahead of a weak vort max embedded within moderate west-northwesterly flow, diurnal heating in the vicinity of a very slow-moving cold front will yield ample airmass destabilization to support widely scattered afternoon storms over the eastern South Dakota vicinity. With time, some upscale growth may occur -- aided by development of an evening low-level jet, with a cluster of convection then spreading eastward across parts of southern Minnesota and Iowa, and eventually into southwestern Wisconsin. The strongest storms within the broader area of convection should prove capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds, and marginal hail, through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Near and south of a cool front sagging slowly southward across the St. Lawrence Valley area toward northern New England, daytime heating will support at least modest airmass destabilization. This combined with the gradual eastward advance of an upper short-wave trough should result in conditions favorable for development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Shear sufficient for multicell organization/clustering is anticipated, suggesting that a few of the stronger storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and/or marginally severe hail through mid evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are expected across parts of Florida and southeastern Georgia in conjunction with the approach of tropical system Debby. Elsewhere, strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing hail and/or damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the Northeast/New England, the northern High Plains, and parts of the Upper Midwest area. ...Florida/southern Georgia... Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to gradually strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center indicating that Debby will reach hurricane strength early Monday morning, prior to making landfall over the Big Bend region of Florida. As the storm strengthens, increasingly strong, clockwise-veering winds with height will yield low-level shear favorable for supercells within convective bands. Correspondingly, a few tornadoes are expected, with the risk area gradually shifting northward through the period in tandem with Debby's advance. ...Southeastern Montana and vicinity... A surface cold front extending northwest-to-southeast across the northern High Plains region, and differential heating over the higher terrain of southern Montana, should both provide a focus for isolated afternoon storm development. Given moderate mid-level westerlies accompanying a short-wave trough crossing Montana during the afternoon/evening, shear will be sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts. A couple of the strongest storms will likely be accompanied by wind/hail exceeding severe levels, with storms spreading eastward into portions of the western Dakotas through the evening/overnight. ...Eastern South Dakota to southwestern Wisconsin... Ahead of a weak vort max embedded within moderate west-northwesterly flow, diurnal heating in the vicinity of a very slow-moving cold front will yield ample airmass destabilization to support widely scattered afternoon storms over the eastern South Dakota vicinity. With time, some upscale growth may occur -- aided by development of an evening low-level jet, with a cluster of convection then spreading eastward across parts of southern Minnesota and Iowa, and eventually into southwestern Wisconsin. The strongest storms within the broader area of convection should prove capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds, and marginal hail, through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Near and south of a cool front sagging slowly southward across the St. Lawrence Valley area toward northern New England, daytime heating will support at least modest airmass destabilization. This combined with the gradual eastward advance of an upper short-wave trough should result in conditions favorable for development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Shear sufficient for multicell organization/clustering is anticipated, suggesting that a few of the stronger storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and/or marginally severe hail through mid evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are expected across parts of Florida and southeastern Georgia in conjunction with the approach of tropical system Debby. Elsewhere, strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing hail and/or damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the Northeast/New England, the northern High Plains, and parts of the Upper Midwest area. ...Florida/southern Georgia... Tropical Storm Debby is forecast to gradually strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center indicating that Debby will reach hurricane strength early Monday morning, prior to making landfall over the Big Bend region of Florida. As the storm strengthens, increasingly strong, clockwise-veering winds with height will yield low-level shear favorable for supercells within convective bands. Correspondingly, a few tornadoes are expected, with the risk area gradually shifting northward through the period in tandem with Debby's advance. ...Southeastern Montana and vicinity... A surface cold front extending northwest-to-southeast across the northern High Plains region, and differential heating over the higher terrain of southern Montana, should both provide a focus for isolated afternoon storm development. Given moderate mid-level westerlies accompanying a short-wave trough crossing Montana during the afternoon/evening, shear will be sufficient for organized/rotating updrafts. A couple of the strongest storms will likely be accompanied by wind/hail exceeding severe levels, with storms spreading eastward into portions of the western Dakotas through the evening/overnight. ...Eastern South Dakota to southwestern Wisconsin... Ahead of a weak vort max embedded within moderate west-northwesterly flow, diurnal heating in the vicinity of a very slow-moving cold front will yield ample airmass destabilization to support widely scattered afternoon storms over the eastern South Dakota vicinity. With time, some upscale growth may occur -- aided by development of an evening low-level jet, with a cluster of convection then spreading eastward across parts of southern Minnesota and Iowa, and eventually into southwestern Wisconsin. The strongest storms within the broader area of convection should prove capable of producing gusty/locally damaging winds, and marginal hail, through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England... Near and south of a cool front sagging slowly southward across the St. Lawrence Valley area toward northern New England, daytime heating will support at least modest airmass destabilization. This combined with the gradual eastward advance of an upper short-wave trough should result in conditions favorable for development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Shear sufficient for multicell organization/clustering is anticipated, suggesting that a few of the stronger storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and/or marginally severe hail through mid evening. ..Goss/Thornton.. 08/04/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 040529
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP97):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although its shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized,
environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and
a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while the system meanders within weak steering currents. Thereafter,
the system is forecast to interact with the disturbance (EP96) to
its southeast, which should limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ESE RWF TO 30 NE RWF TO 20 E MSP TO 40 N RST. ..LEITMAN..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ABR...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-015-019-037-079-085-103-129-139-143-040540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER DAKOTA LE SUEUR MCLEOD NICOLLET RENVILLE SCOTT SIBLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0593 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ESE RWF TO 30 NE RWF TO 20 E MSP TO 40 N RST. ..LEITMAN..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...ABR...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 593 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-015-019-037-079-085-103-129-139-143-040540- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER DAKOTA LE SUEUR MCLEOD NICOLLET RENVILLE SCOTT SIBLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more