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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AND ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely this afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms producing damaging gusts are also expected across parts of the North Carolina Piedmont into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A developing tropical cyclone may also impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, isolated strong storms are possible across the southern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity into SC/GA... An upper trough oriented from the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to northern AL/GA will shift east toward the northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity through tonight. This will result in a belt of 25-35 kt southwesterly midlevel flow overspreading the NC/VA Piedmont, northward toward southern New England. A surface front will stall from eastern PA southwestward along the Blue Ridge Mountains and into north GA. To the east of this surface boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place, with dewpoints in the 70s F. This will aid in moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE values 1500-2000 J/kg common. A few pockets with higher instability are possible, but poor midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization on a large scale. Nevertheless, 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes will support strong to severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorm clusters will be possible, and scattered wind damage is expected with this activity. A corridor of greater severe potential is expected from central NC into southeast PA/southern NJ, where greater storm coverage is expected along with increased potential for forward-propagating clusters. A Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been included for this corridor. ...Eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest... Moderate northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on the western periphery of a large Hudson Bay upper cyclone. A weak surface low is forecast to develop over central SD, with a warm front extending from southwest MN into central/eastern IA, and a cold front developing southward across northern MN and the Dakotas. A wedge of mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints between these surface features will foster moderate to strong destabilization during the afternoon amid steep midlevel lapse rates. Vertically veering wind profiles and elongated/straight hodographs, along with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt, should favor supercells. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. Initial cellular activity may develop into a small MCS, transitioning the risk to mainly damaging winds during the evening. ...Southwest FL Peninsula... Per latest NHC guidance, Tropical Depression Four is forecast to become a tropical storm by this evening as the system tracks over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms will overspread the southern Peninsula, where low/mid level east/southeasterly flow will increase through the period. Sufficient low-level instability and 0-1 km SRH increasing to greater than 200 m2/s2 will support some risk for a couple of tornadoes. ...Southern High Plains... A convectively enhanced vorticity max is forecast to develop south across the central/southern High Plains vicinity this afternoon/evening. Vertically veering wind profiles will support rather robust effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, but steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in at least weak destabilization (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) sufficient for high-based thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow winds with any storms that develop. If any longer-lived cells can be maintained, isolated large hail is also possible. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AND ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most likely this afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota into Minnesota with damaging winds and hail possible. Scattered thunderstorms producing damaging gusts are also expected across parts of the North Carolina Piedmont into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A developing tropical cyclone may also impact the Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, isolated strong storms are possible across the southern High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity into SC/GA... An upper trough oriented from the lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to northern AL/GA will shift east toward the northern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic vicinity through tonight. This will result in a belt of 25-35 kt southwesterly midlevel flow overspreading the NC/VA Piedmont, northward toward southern New England. A surface front will stall from eastern PA southwestward along the Blue Ridge Mountains and into north GA. To the east of this surface boundary, a very moist airmass will be in place, with dewpoints in the 70s F. This will aid in moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE values 1500-2000 J/kg common. A few pockets with higher instability are possible, but poor midlevel lapse rates will limit stronger destabilization on a large scale. Nevertheless, 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes will support strong to severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorm clusters will be possible, and scattered wind damage is expected with this activity. A corridor of greater severe potential is expected from central NC into southeast PA/southern NJ, where greater storm coverage is expected along with increased potential for forward-propagating clusters. A Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been included for this corridor. ...Eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest... Moderate northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on the western periphery of a large Hudson Bay upper cyclone. A weak surface low is forecast to develop over central SD, with a warm front extending from southwest MN into central/eastern IA, and a cold front developing southward across northern MN and the Dakotas. A wedge of mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints between these surface features will foster moderate to strong destabilization during the afternoon amid steep midlevel lapse rates. Vertically veering wind profiles and elongated/straight hodographs, along with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt, should favor supercells. Damaging gusts and large to very large hail will be possible with this activity. Initial cellular activity may develop into a small MCS, transitioning the risk to mainly damaging winds during the evening. ...Southwest FL Peninsula... Per latest NHC guidance, Tropical Depression Four is forecast to become a tropical storm by this evening as the system tracks over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms will overspread the southern Peninsula, where low/mid level east/southeasterly flow will increase through the period. Sufficient low-level instability and 0-1 km SRH increasing to greater than 200 m2/s2 will support some risk for a couple of tornadoes. ...Southern High Plains... A convectively enhanced vorticity max is forecast to develop south across the central/southern High Plains vicinity this afternoon/evening. Vertically veering wind profiles will support rather robust effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, but steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in at least weak destabilization (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) sufficient for high-based thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow winds with any storms that develop. If any longer-lived cells can be maintained, isolated large hail is also possible. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/03/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030531
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little less organized in
association with an area of low pressure located well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. This system could still become a short-lived tropical
depression before environmental conditions become unfavorable for
development in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 02:50:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Aug 2024 03:31:32 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 275 WTPZ43 KNHC 030248 TCDEP3 Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Carlotta has changed little in structure this evening. Infrared geostationary satellite imagery continues to show hints of a clouded eye embedded in a central dense overcast with upper-level outflow present in all quadrants. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.5/77-kt and objective estimates range between 71-82 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is held at 75 kt in the middle of these estimates. The hurricane is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge centered over the southwestern United States is forecast to steer Carlotta westward for another day or so. Later this weekend, the hurricane is expected to turn to the west-northwest around the southwest edge of the ridge. Carlotta should turn back to the west as it weakens later in the forecast period. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track forecast. The window for additional strengthening is growing smaller. Within a day, Carlotta is expected to be over cooler ocean waters and begin weakening. By Sunday night or Monday morning, the vertical wind shear is forecast to notably increase and steadily weaken the hurricane. Simulated satellite imagery from global models indicate that Carlotta should lose its convection by day 4. The official intensity forecast is above most guidance in the near-term prediction, and closer to the various consensus aids for the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.8N 117.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.3N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.2N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 22.2N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 764 FOPZ13 KNHC 030247 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 64 20(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 120W 50 7 15(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 120W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 43(45) 30(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 27(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 317 WTPZ33 KNHC 030247 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024 ...HURRICANE CARLOTTA HEADING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 117.9W ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 117.9 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. By Saturday night, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast within the next day, followed by steady weakening through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are beginning to subside and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HURRICANE CARLOTTA HEADING WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.8, -117.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 622 WTPZ23 KNHC 030246 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.9W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.9W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 121.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 129.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.2N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

MD 1800 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1800 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 030053Z - 030230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk of strong to severe wind will continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms ongoing across southeastern Arizona have shown strengthening in the last hour near and east of Tucson. Temperatures across much of the region are 100+ F with dew points in the low to mid 50s. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg. The 00z sounding from Tucson depicts steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with characteristic inverted V and very dry surface conditions. Though flow is weak, large 40-50 degree dew point depressions and steep lapse rates will support risk for strong to severe gusts through the evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 08/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC... LAT...LON 31911196 32531148 32931071 32940996 32740936 32490919 32180917 31830915 31480916 31390921 31350950 31400956 31321006 31311063 31361091 31411113 31541169 31661192 31911196 Read more

MD 1798 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1798 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022251Z - 030115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts will be possible over the next few hours with the stronger cells from eastern Mississippi eastward across central Alabama. The severe threat is expected to remain marginal, and WW issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an east-to-west oriented broken line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms extending from just north of Birmingham westward into eastern Mississippi. This line is located from near and just to the south of an axis of strong instability, where the RAP is estimated MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. In addition to the strong instability, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Birmingham has 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 kt range. This will support an isolated wind-damage threat as the cluster moves southeastward across far eastern Mississippi and central Alabama this evening. If the line can continue to organize a cold pool, then the potential for severe wind gusts could continue for a few more hours. ..Broyles/Smith.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33708816 33848882 33838923 33638945 33268940 32958924 32748898 32618829 32618698 32718602 32918559 33208548 33568549 33748581 33638684 33708816 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central Mississippi/Alabama, the central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been removed from much of the eastern U.S. While a strong storm or two may produce gusty winds from the central Appalachians to the Ohio Valley, weak vertical shear and a cooling/stabilizing boundary-layer will limit severe potential the remainder of the night. A storm or two may also produce strong gusts across parts of the Mid-Atlantic before moving offshore, but overall trends have decreased and severe potential is expected to be limited. A southward developing band of storms may continue to produce locally strong/damaging gusts across parts of central MS/AL for a few more hours this evening within a strongly unstable but weakly sheared environment. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been reoriented and shifted a bit further south in AL to account for ongoing trends. Additional strong storms are possible for another few hours this evening across the central High Plains. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded eastward across a small part of NE to account for current radar trends. Isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible with this activity across western NE/northeast CO into extreme northwest KS. Other more isolated strong storms remain possible across southeast AZ for a few more hours as well. ..Leitman.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central Mississippi/Alabama, the central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been removed from much of the eastern U.S. While a strong storm or two may produce gusty winds from the central Appalachians to the Ohio Valley, weak vertical shear and a cooling/stabilizing boundary-layer will limit severe potential the remainder of the night. A storm or two may also produce strong gusts across parts of the Mid-Atlantic before moving offshore, but overall trends have decreased and severe potential is expected to be limited. A southward developing band of storms may continue to produce locally strong/damaging gusts across parts of central MS/AL for a few more hours this evening within a strongly unstable but weakly sheared environment. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been reoriented and shifted a bit further south in AL to account for ongoing trends. Additional strong storms are possible for another few hours this evening across the central High Plains. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded eastward across a small part of NE to account for current radar trends. Isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible with this activity across western NE/northeast CO into extreme northwest KS. Other more isolated strong storms remain possible across southeast AZ for a few more hours as well. ..Leitman.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central Mississippi/Alabama, the central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been removed from much of the eastern U.S. While a strong storm or two may produce gusty winds from the central Appalachians to the Ohio Valley, weak vertical shear and a cooling/stabilizing boundary-layer will limit severe potential the remainder of the night. A storm or two may also produce strong gusts across parts of the Mid-Atlantic before moving offshore, but overall trends have decreased and severe potential is expected to be limited. A southward developing band of storms may continue to produce locally strong/damaging gusts across parts of central MS/AL for a few more hours this evening within a strongly unstable but weakly sheared environment. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been reoriented and shifted a bit further south in AL to account for ongoing trends. Additional strong storms are possible for another few hours this evening across the central High Plains. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded eastward across a small part of NE to account for current radar trends. Isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible with this activity across western NE/northeast CO into extreme northwest KS. Other more isolated strong storms remain possible across southeast AZ for a few more hours as well. ..Leitman.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central Mississippi/Alabama, the central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been removed from much of the eastern U.S. While a strong storm or two may produce gusty winds from the central Appalachians to the Ohio Valley, weak vertical shear and a cooling/stabilizing boundary-layer will limit severe potential the remainder of the night. A storm or two may also produce strong gusts across parts of the Mid-Atlantic before moving offshore, but overall trends have decreased and severe potential is expected to be limited. A southward developing band of storms may continue to produce locally strong/damaging gusts across parts of central MS/AL for a few more hours this evening within a strongly unstable but weakly sheared environment. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been reoriented and shifted a bit further south in AL to account for ongoing trends. Additional strong storms are possible for another few hours this evening across the central High Plains. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded eastward across a small part of NE to account for current radar trends. Isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible with this activity across western NE/northeast CO into extreme northwest KS. Other more isolated strong storms remain possible across southeast AZ for a few more hours as well. ..Leitman.. 08/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of central Mississippi/Alabama, the central High Plains, and southeast Arizona. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been removed from much of the eastern U.S. While a strong storm or two may produce gusty winds from the central Appalachians to the Ohio Valley, weak vertical shear and a cooling/stabilizing boundary-layer will limit severe potential the remainder of the night. A storm or two may also produce strong gusts across parts of the Mid-Atlantic before moving offshore, but overall trends have decreased and severe potential is expected to be limited. A southward developing band of storms may continue to produce locally strong/damaging gusts across parts of central MS/AL for a few more hours this evening within a strongly unstable but weakly sheared environment. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been reoriented and shifted a bit further south in AL to account for ongoing trends. Additional strong storms are possible for another few hours this evening across the central High Plains. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded eastward across a small part of NE to account for current radar trends. Isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible with this activity across western NE/northeast CO into extreme northwest KS. Other more isolated strong storms remain possible across southeast AZ for a few more hours as well. ..Leitman.. 08/03/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022351
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP95):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little
in organization since earlier today. Despite marginal environmental
conditions, a tropical depression could form over the next day or so
as the low meanders. By late this weekend, environmental conditions
are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development as
the system moves northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

MD 1799 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO CONNECTICUT.
Mesoscale Discussion 1799 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern maryland...Delaware...New Jersey and southern New York into Connecticut. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590... Valid 022301Z - 030000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 590 continues. SUMMARY...The linear cluster of storms across the Mid Atlantic will remain capable of damaging gusts before moving offshore this evening. Additional storms over eastern MD and CT may also pose some risk for damaging winds through the evening. DISCUSSION...As of 23 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a line of storms stretching from far southern NY into parts of the DelMarVA. Periodic wind damage and a few severe gusts have been observed with this line of storms over the past couple of hours. Moderate buoyancy remains in place ahead of the line over the Atlantic Seaboard. While shear remains fairly minimal, a well-developed cold pool (forward speed of 20-25 mph) has allowed for continued propagation and support of transient strong updrafts. Damaging gusts will remain possible with the stronger cells along and ahead of the outflow before it moves offshore over the next hour. Farther north, the cold pool/storms may remain inland for more of the evening over parts of southern NY/Long Island and western CT. While temperatures are cooler than farther south, 70s F dewpoints and 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should remain sufficient for maintenance of the squall line as it approaches from the southwest. Isolated damaging gusts in the 45-60 mph range are possible as the northern half of the line and its cold pool approach. Storms should gradually weaken as the move farther east this evening and begin to encounter increasing nocturnal inhibition. Redevelopment along the southwestern flank of the initial line of storms over eastern MD may also support some severe risk through the evening hours over MD and DE. While confidence in storm organization here, moderate buoyancy should continue to support storm development with periodic stronger updrafts and water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging near-severe gusts. ..Lyons.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39457628 39957498 40497455 41107428 41637425 41907395 41957362 42027329 42027285 42017263 41837240 41567235 41367253 40697330 40497371 40017397 39657415 39147471 38847500 38587516 38467559 38417584 38467623 38637634 38737638 39067649 39457628 Read more

MD 1798 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1798 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022251Z - 030115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts will be possible over the next few hours with the stronger cells from eastern Mississippi eastward across central Alabama. The severe threat is expected to remain marginal, and WW issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an east-to-west oriented broken line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms extending from just north of Birmingham westward into eastern Mississippi. This line is located from near and just to the south of an axis of strong instability, where the RAP is estimated MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. In addition to the strong instability, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Birmingham has 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 kt range. This will support an isolated wind-damage threat as the cluster moves southeastward across far eastern Mississippi and central Alabama this evening. If the line can continue to organize a cold pool, then the potential for severe wind gusts could continue for a few more hours. ..Broyles/Smith.. 08/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33708816 33848882 33838923 33638945 33268940 32958924 32748898 32618829 32618698 32718602 32918559 33208548 33568549 33748581 33638684 33708816 Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BWI TO 10 SW PHL TO 15 WNW NEL TO 15 S EWR TO 30 SW POU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799 ..LYONS..08/02/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-030040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-030040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-025-029-033-030040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN Read more