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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected for portions of the southern CA coast through the day and into the overnight hours. 06 UTC surface observations show a seasonally strong surface high over the northern Great Basin (MSLP values between the 75th to 90th percentile for early December). This feature, combined with a weak trough axis along the CA coast, has maintained a persistent DAG-LAX pressure gradient between -5 to -8 mb over the past 24 hours. Offshore winds are forecast to increase through 18 UTC as the pressure gradient gradually strengthens before slowly abating through the remainder of the forecast period. A shallow marine layer evident in the 00 UTC VBG sounding and coastal surface obs is expected to mix out as winds strengthen, but the warmest/driest conditions will likely reside within the thermal layer above 1700 ft (also evident in the VBG sounding and surface obs). Latest high-res guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will approach critical thresholds by around 16-18 UTC and may support gusts within the higher terrain between 20-30 mph as RH values fall into the teens. As such, pockets of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible through much of the southern CA coastal terrain - though appear most persistent/widespread between the San Gabriel and San Rafael Mountains where terrain influences will locally augment the gradient winds. Elevated fire weather conditions should become increasingly isolated through late afternoon, but may persist for some locations through early Saturday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected for portions of the southern CA coast through the day and into the overnight hours. 06 UTC surface observations show a seasonally strong surface high over the northern Great Basin (MSLP values between the 75th to 90th percentile for early December). This feature, combined with a weak trough axis along the CA coast, has maintained a persistent DAG-LAX pressure gradient between -5 to -8 mb over the past 24 hours. Offshore winds are forecast to increase through 18 UTC as the pressure gradient gradually strengthens before slowly abating through the remainder of the forecast period. A shallow marine layer evident in the 00 UTC VBG sounding and coastal surface obs is expected to mix out as winds strengthen, but the warmest/driest conditions will likely reside within the thermal layer above 1700 ft (also evident in the VBG sounding and surface obs). Latest high-res guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will approach critical thresholds by around 16-18 UTC and may support gusts within the higher terrain between 20-30 mph as RH values fall into the teens. As such, pockets of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible through much of the southern CA coastal terrain - though appear most persistent/widespread between the San Gabriel and San Rafael Mountains where terrain influences will locally augment the gradient winds. Elevated fire weather conditions should become increasingly isolated through late afternoon, but may persist for some locations through early Saturday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected for portions of the southern CA coast through the day and into the overnight hours. 06 UTC surface observations show a seasonally strong surface high over the northern Great Basin (MSLP values between the 75th to 90th percentile for early December). This feature, combined with a weak trough axis along the CA coast, has maintained a persistent DAG-LAX pressure gradient between -5 to -8 mb over the past 24 hours. Offshore winds are forecast to increase through 18 UTC as the pressure gradient gradually strengthens before slowly abating through the remainder of the forecast period. A shallow marine layer evident in the 00 UTC VBG sounding and coastal surface obs is expected to mix out as winds strengthen, but the warmest/driest conditions will likely reside within the thermal layer above 1700 ft (also evident in the VBG sounding and surface obs). Latest high-res guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will approach critical thresholds by around 16-18 UTC and may support gusts within the higher terrain between 20-30 mph as RH values fall into the teens. As such, pockets of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible through much of the southern CA coastal terrain - though appear most persistent/widespread between the San Gabriel and San Rafael Mountains where terrain influences will locally augment the gradient winds. Elevated fire weather conditions should become increasingly isolated through late afternoon, but may persist for some locations through early Saturday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... Rising heights are expected today over much of the northern tier and eastern seaboard in the wake of an exiting prominent upper-level trough, while a slow-moving upper low persists over southern portions of Arizona/New Mexico and northwest Mexico. A few thunderstorms will be possible near/east of this upper low, potentially including parts of southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and far west Texas within a marginally unstable environment. Modestly increasing warm advection/elevated moisture transport into tonight should lead to an increase in elevated convection across Texas, some of which will be capable of lightning, particularly across central/north-central Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... Rising heights are expected today over much of the northern tier and eastern seaboard in the wake of an exiting prominent upper-level trough, while a slow-moving upper low persists over southern portions of Arizona/New Mexico and northwest Mexico. A few thunderstorms will be possible near/east of this upper low, potentially including parts of southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and far west Texas within a marginally unstable environment. Modestly increasing warm advection/elevated moisture transport into tonight should lead to an increase in elevated convection across Texas, some of which will be capable of lightning, particularly across central/north-central Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... Rising heights are expected today over much of the northern tier and eastern seaboard in the wake of an exiting prominent upper-level trough, while a slow-moving upper low persists over southern portions of Arizona/New Mexico and northwest Mexico. A few thunderstorms will be possible near/east of this upper low, potentially including parts of southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and far west Texas within a marginally unstable environment. Modestly increasing warm advection/elevated moisture transport into tonight should lead to an increase in elevated convection across Texas, some of which will be capable of lightning, particularly across central/north-central Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... Rising heights are expected today over much of the northern tier and eastern seaboard in the wake of an exiting prominent upper-level trough, while a slow-moving upper low persists over southern portions of Arizona/New Mexico and northwest Mexico. A few thunderstorms will be possible near/east of this upper low, potentially including parts of southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and far west Texas within a marginally unstable environment. Modestly increasing warm advection/elevated moisture transport into tonight should lead to an increase in elevated convection across Texas, some of which will be capable of lightning, particularly across central/north-central Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... Rising heights are expected today over much of the northern tier and eastern seaboard in the wake of an exiting prominent upper-level trough, while a slow-moving upper low persists over southern portions of Arizona/New Mexico and northwest Mexico. A few thunderstorms will be possible near/east of this upper low, potentially including parts of southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and far west Texas within a marginally unstable environment. Modestly increasing warm advection/elevated moisture transport into tonight should lead to an increase in elevated convection across Texas, some of which will be capable of lightning, particularly across central/north-central Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... Rising heights are expected today over much of the northern tier and eastern seaboard in the wake of an exiting prominent upper-level trough, while a slow-moving upper low persists over southern portions of Arizona/New Mexico and northwest Mexico. A few thunderstorms will be possible near/east of this upper low, potentially including parts of southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and far west Texas within a marginally unstable environment. Modestly increasing warm advection/elevated moisture transport into tonight should lead to an increase in elevated convection across Texas, some of which will be capable of lightning, particularly across central/north-central Texas tonight. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/06/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that significant amplification of the upper pattern will take place next week as a strong and deep upper trough traverses the CONUS. The initial development of this upper trough is forecast to begin on D4/Monday as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. By early D5/Tuesday, evolution of these systems will have likely resulted in broad and deep upper troughing across much of the central North America. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D6/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the Plains on D4/Monday, the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D5/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D6/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D5/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday as well, with strengthening deep-layer vertical shear and large-scale ascent anticipated across the region as well. As a result, some severe appears possible, but uncertainty regarding frontal position limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that significant amplification of the upper pattern will take place next week as a strong and deep upper trough traverses the CONUS. The initial development of this upper trough is forecast to begin on D4/Monday as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. By early D5/Tuesday, evolution of these systems will have likely resulted in broad and deep upper troughing across much of the central North America. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D6/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the Plains on D4/Monday, the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D5/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D6/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D5/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday as well, with strengthening deep-layer vertical shear and large-scale ascent anticipated across the region as well. As a result, some severe appears possible, but uncertainty regarding frontal position limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that significant amplification of the upper pattern will take place next week as a strong and deep upper trough traverses the CONUS. The initial development of this upper trough is forecast to begin on D4/Monday as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. By early D5/Tuesday, evolution of these systems will have likely resulted in broad and deep upper troughing across much of the central North America. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D6/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the Plains on D4/Monday, the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D5/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D6/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D5/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday as well, with strengthening deep-layer vertical shear and large-scale ascent anticipated across the region as well. As a result, some severe appears possible, but uncertainty regarding frontal position limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that significant amplification of the upper pattern will take place next week as a strong and deep upper trough traverses the CONUS. The initial development of this upper trough is forecast to begin on D4/Monday as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. By early D5/Tuesday, evolution of these systems will have likely resulted in broad and deep upper troughing across much of the central North America. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D6/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the Plains on D4/Monday, the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D5/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D6/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D5/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday as well, with strengthening deep-layer vertical shear and large-scale ascent anticipated across the region as well. As a result, some severe appears possible, but uncertainty regarding frontal position limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that significant amplification of the upper pattern will take place next week as a strong and deep upper trough traverses the CONUS. The initial development of this upper trough is forecast to begin on D4/Monday as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. By early D5/Tuesday, evolution of these systems will have likely resulted in broad and deep upper troughing across much of the central North America. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D6/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the Plains on D4/Monday, the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D5/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D6/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D5/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday as well, with strengthening deep-layer vertical shear and large-scale ascent anticipated across the region as well. As a result, some severe appears possible, but uncertainty regarding frontal position limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that significant amplification of the upper pattern will take place next week as a strong and deep upper trough traverses the CONUS. The initial development of this upper trough is forecast to begin on D4/Monday as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. By early D5/Tuesday, evolution of these systems will have likely resulted in broad and deep upper troughing across much of the central North America. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D6/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the Plains on D4/Monday, the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D5/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D6/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D5/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday as well, with strengthening deep-layer vertical shear and large-scale ascent anticipated across the region as well. As a result, some severe appears possible, but uncertainty regarding frontal position limits predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that significant amplification of the upper pattern will take place next week as a strong and deep upper trough traverses the CONUS. The initial development of this upper trough is forecast to begin on D4/Monday as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. By early D5/Tuesday, evolution of these systems will have likely resulted in broad and deep upper troughing across much of the central North America. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D6/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the Plains on D4/Monday, the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D5/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D6/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D5/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday as well, with strengthening deep-layer vertical shear and large-scale ascent anticipated across the region as well. As a result, some severe appears possible, but uncertainty regarding frontal position limits predictability. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis... Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the Mid/Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley and Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low to mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of this system as well. Overall progression of this system will displace it north of the more favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong but the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis... Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the Mid/Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley and Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low to mid-level flow is anticipated ahead of this system as well. Overall progression of this system will displace it north of the more favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong but the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/06/2024 Read more