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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day. Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation. Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy, with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low. ..Mosier.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day. Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation. Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy, with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low. ..Mosier.. 12/06/2024 Read more

With precipitation at an historic low over the last four months, the Cape Cod and Islands regions were categorized as being in a Level 1-Mild Drought. A Level 3-Critical Drought declaration remained in the Western, Connecticut River Valley, Southeast, Central and Northeast regions. Mass.gov (Boston), Dec 6, 2024 After extremely low precipitation over the past three months, most of Massachusetts entered Level 3 – Critical Drought on November 19. Only the Cape Cod and Islands Regions were in Level 0 – Normal condition. Over the past 30 days, less than an inch of rain has fallen, putting the deficit at 3 to 4.5 inches below average. Brooks and streambeds have gone dry, and groundwater levels were dropping rapidly in all regions. Two hundred cities and towns have temporarily restricted outdoor burning as fire activity has risen. Thirty-seven wildfires were actively burning in the state. Hundreds of blazes have sparked since Oct. 1 and burned more land than typically burns in an entire year. MassLive.com (Springfield, Mass.), Nov 19, 2024

The Dorena-Hickman Ferry closed on December 6 due to the low level of the Mississippi River. According to the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, the Dorena-Hickman Ferry is the only direct route between Missouri and Kentucky because the two states are not directly connected by a road or bridge. KFVS12 (Cape Girardeau, Mo.), Dec 6, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Dry conditions will persist over much of the CONUS owing to high pressure at the surface. A low-latitude shortwave trough now over northwest MX will remain nearly stationary through the period, with cool air aloft extending east across AZ, NM and southwest TX. The presence of midlevel moisture and weak elevated instability may support a few thunderstorms over far southern NM into far west TX tonight and into Friday morning. Such weak instability will not favor severe weather. ..Jewell.. 12/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Dry conditions will persist over much of the CONUS owing to high pressure at the surface. A low-latitude shortwave trough now over northwest MX will remain nearly stationary through the period, with cool air aloft extending east across AZ, NM and southwest TX. The presence of midlevel moisture and weak elevated instability may support a few thunderstorms over far southern NM into far west TX tonight and into Friday morning. Such weak instability will not favor severe weather. ..Jewell.. 12/06/2024 Read more

Although Pennsylvania game officials thought that the drought would not affect hunting, a Westmoreland County processor has noticed a difference in the size and quality of antlers and the amount of quality meat that has been returned to archery hunters. Does have not had as much body fat. “They’re just not really yielding meat they would have in the past,” she said, blaming the dry weather for limited food supplies. A board member with the Allegheny County Sportsmen’s League agreed that the deer were thinner than usual. TRIBLive (Tarentum, Pa.), Nov 30, 2024

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 5 23:54:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 5 23:54:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A belt of strong north-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the West Coast, aiding in large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified upstream ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, promoting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient around -5 to -7 mb). This gradient and the upper-level support will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 6/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this timeframe. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 5/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A belt of strong north-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the West Coast, aiding in large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified upstream ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, promoting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient around -5 to -7 mb). This gradient and the upper-level support will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 6/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this timeframe. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 5/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A belt of strong north-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the West Coast, aiding in large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified upstream ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, promoting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient around -5 to -7 mb). This gradient and the upper-level support will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 6/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this timeframe. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 5/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A belt of strong north-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the West Coast, aiding in large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified upstream ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, promoting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient around -5 to -7 mb). This gradient and the upper-level support will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 6/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for this timeframe. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 5/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday. However, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more