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MD 2251 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 062014Z - 070115Z SUMMARY...Lake-effect snow rates approaching 2 inches an hour are possible into the evening hours. DISCUSSION...A lake-effect snow band is ongoing across portions of Lake Ontario, which is impinging on Oswego County NY and is producing heavy snow based on the Fulton/Oswego County Airport ASOS. Some slight backing of the low-level winds from northwesterly to westerly, as shown by surface observations, will support a longer fetch of moisture across Lake Ontario. These backing winds may help intensify the ongoing snow band, as well as encourage this band to take on a slightly more west-to-east orientation over the next several hours. While at least one inch/hr rates are likely in the immediate term, snowfall rates approaching 2 inches/hr may be possible later this afternoon and evening. ..Squitieri.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43517674 43677667 43747647 43757625 43637594 43467581 43407581 43277585 43227599 43277632 43317654 43517674 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 6 22:16:01 UTC 2024.

MD 2251 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 062014Z - 070115Z SUMMARY...Lake-effect snow rates approaching 2 inches an hour are possible into the evening hours. DISCUSSION...A lake-effect snow band is ongoing across portions of Lake Ontario, which is impinging on Oswego County NY and is producing heavy snow based on the Fulton/Oswego County Airport ASOS. Some slight backing of the low-level winds from northwesterly to westerly, as shown by surface observations, will support a longer fetch of moisture across Lake Ontario. These backing winds may help intensify the ongoing snow band, as well as encourage this band to take on a slightly more west-to-east orientation over the next several hours. While at least one inch/hr rates are likely in the immediate term, snowfall rates approaching 2 inches/hr may be possible later this afternoon and evening. ..Squitieri.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43517674 43677667 43747647 43757625 43637594 43467581 43407581 43277585 43227599 43277632 43317654 43517674 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. This, in combination with a strengthening upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -6 to -8 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained during this time frame. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 4/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. As the western trough ejects, additional periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. This, in combination with a strengthening upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -6 to -8 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained during this time frame. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 4/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. As the western trough ejects, additional periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. This, in combination with a strengthening upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -6 to -8 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained during this time frame. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 4/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. As the western trough ejects, additional periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. This, in combination with a strengthening upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -6 to -8 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained during this time frame. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 4/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. As the western trough ejects, additional periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. This, in combination with a strengthening upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -6 to -8 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained during this time frame. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 4/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. As the western trough ejects, additional periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. This, in combination with a strengthening upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -6 to -8 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained during this time frame. The onset of critical conditions is still uncertain, and higher probabilities may eventually be needed for the Day 4/Monday overnight period. Elsewhere, strong westerly surface winds and locally dry conditions are expected in the vicinity of a deepening lee trough over the southern High Plains on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. As the western trough ejects, additional periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...20Z... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not expected given the very weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...20Z... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not expected given the very weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...20Z... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not expected given the very weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...20Z... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not expected given the very weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...20Z... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not expected given the very weak buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...AZ/NM/TX... A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX. Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM. Weak instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 6 19:40:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Limited fire weather concerns are expected for Saturday across the country, though localized concerns are possible within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast. The persistent offshore flow regime over southern CA is expected to slowly abate through the day Saturday as the upper trough currently over southern AZ ejects into the southern Plains, resulting in weakening low to mid-level flow across the region. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions (featuring 15-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH) will likely be ongoing at the start of the period within the higher terrain, but should become more isolated after 18 UTC. While similar wind/RH conditions are possible early Saturday compared to today (Friday), latest high-res guidance suggests the overall coverage of such conditions should be more limited, which precludes highlights at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more