Aggregator

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Within a split flow regime, the southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/northern Mexico will become more east-northeastward progressive today, while a low-amplitude belt of progressive westerlies evolves across the northern tier and Canada. Semi-persistent and east/northeastward-expanding thunderstorm potential today will be focused across much of central/east/north Texas and possibly nearby parts of the ArkLaTex and/or far southeast Oklahoma. These will be elevated thunderstorms aided by DPVA and semi-persistent warm advection and elevated moisture transport. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited buoyancy. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes could occur late tonight near coastal Washington as lapse rates steepen in the wake of an inland-advancing front. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Within a split flow regime, the southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/northern Mexico will become more east-northeastward progressive today, while a low-amplitude belt of progressive westerlies evolves across the northern tier and Canada. Semi-persistent and east/northeastward-expanding thunderstorm potential today will be focused across much of central/east/north Texas and possibly nearby parts of the ArkLaTex and/or far southeast Oklahoma. These will be elevated thunderstorms aided by DPVA and semi-persistent warm advection and elevated moisture transport. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited buoyancy. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes could occur late tonight near coastal Washington as lapse rates steepen in the wake of an inland-advancing front. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Within a split flow regime, the southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/northern Mexico will become more east-northeastward progressive today, while a low-amplitude belt of progressive westerlies evolves across the northern tier and Canada. Semi-persistent and east/northeastward-expanding thunderstorm potential today will be focused across much of central/east/north Texas and possibly nearby parts of the ArkLaTex and/or far southeast Oklahoma. These will be elevated thunderstorms aided by DPVA and semi-persistent warm advection and elevated moisture transport. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited buoyancy. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes could occur late tonight near coastal Washington as lapse rates steepen in the wake of an inland-advancing front. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/07/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover much of central North America early D4/Tuesday. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 100-120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D5/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D4/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D5/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D4/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday as well. However, poor lapse rates should keep buoyancy low and the current expectation is that updrafts will struggle to maintain depth, limiting the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance is for the pattern to trend less amplified in the wake of the strong mid-week upper trough from D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, with several shortwave troughs likely traversing the more zonal flow. Guidance varies on the location, strength, and speed of these shortwaves, but the impact of these waves will likely be mitigated by predominantly stable surface conditions on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday. Some moisture return may begin on D7/Friday across the southern Plains, continuing into D8/Saturday, but guidance currently suggests that buoyancy will remain limited. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover much of central North America early D4/Tuesday. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 100-120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D5/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D4/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D5/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D4/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday as well. However, poor lapse rates should keep buoyancy low and the current expectation is that updrafts will struggle to maintain depth, limiting the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance is for the pattern to trend less amplified in the wake of the strong mid-week upper trough from D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, with several shortwave troughs likely traversing the more zonal flow. Guidance varies on the location, strength, and speed of these shortwaves, but the impact of these waves will likely be mitigated by predominantly stable surface conditions on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday. Some moisture return may begin on D7/Friday across the southern Plains, continuing into D8/Saturday, but guidance currently suggests that buoyancy will remain limited. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover much of central North America early D4/Tuesday. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 100-120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D5/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D4/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D5/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D4/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday as well. However, poor lapse rates should keep buoyancy low and the current expectation is that updrafts will struggle to maintain depth, limiting the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance is for the pattern to trend less amplified in the wake of the strong mid-week upper trough from D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, with several shortwave troughs likely traversing the more zonal flow. Guidance varies on the location, strength, and speed of these shortwaves, but the impact of these waves will likely be mitigated by predominantly stable surface conditions on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday. Some moisture return may begin on D7/Friday across the southern Plains, continuing into D8/Saturday, but guidance currently suggests that buoyancy will remain limited. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover much of central North America early D4/Tuesday. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 100-120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D5/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D4/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D5/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D4/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday as well. However, poor lapse rates should keep buoyancy low and the current expectation is that updrafts will struggle to maintain depth, limiting the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance is for the pattern to trend less amplified in the wake of the strong mid-week upper trough from D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, with several shortwave troughs likely traversing the more zonal flow. Guidance varies on the location, strength, and speed of these shortwaves, but the impact of these waves will likely be mitigated by predominantly stable surface conditions on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday. Some moisture return may begin on D7/Friday across the southern Plains, continuing into D8/Saturday, but guidance currently suggests that buoyancy will remain limited. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover much of central North America early D4/Tuesday. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 100-120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D5/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D4/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D5/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D4/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday as well. However, poor lapse rates should keep buoyancy low and the current expectation is that updrafts will struggle to maintain depth, limiting the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance is for the pattern to trend less amplified in the wake of the strong mid-week upper trough from D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, with several shortwave troughs likely traversing the more zonal flow. Guidance varies on the location, strength, and speed of these shortwaves, but the impact of these waves will likely be mitigated by predominantly stable surface conditions on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday. Some moisture return may begin on D7/Friday across the southern Plains, continuing into D8/Saturday, but guidance currently suggests that buoyancy will remain limited. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover much of central North America early D4/Tuesday. This trough is then expected to continue eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus within the guidance places a 100-120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL through the central Appalachians on D5/Wednesday. The embedded shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday, helping to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing. A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing eastward through the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D4/Tuesday, and off the East Coast on D5/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on D4/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest, limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday as well. However, poor lapse rates should keep buoyancy low and the current expectation is that updrafts will struggle to maintain depth, limiting the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance is for the pattern to trend less amplified in the wake of the strong mid-week upper trough from D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, with several shortwave troughs likely traversing the more zonal flow. Guidance varies on the location, strength, and speed of these shortwaves, but the impact of these waves will likely be mitigated by predominantly stable surface conditions on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday. Some moisture return may begin on D7/Friday across the southern Plains, continuing into D8/Saturday, but guidance currently suggests that buoyancy will remain limited. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday with a broad and deep upper trough expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial development of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attend to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. Moderate low-level moisture will precede this secondary low and associated cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely in place over the TX Coast and the Lower MS Valley Monday afternoon. Even so, low to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in relatively warm profiles, keeping buoyancy minimal. Thunderstorms are possible within the broad warm sector expected to be in place from the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast, particularly along the front where forcing will be stronger. The limited buoyancy is expected to keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday with a broad and deep upper trough expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial development of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attend to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. Moderate low-level moisture will precede this secondary low and associated cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely in place over the TX Coast and the Lower MS Valley Monday afternoon. Even so, low to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in relatively warm profiles, keeping buoyancy minimal. Thunderstorms are possible within the broad warm sector expected to be in place from the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast, particularly along the front where forcing will be stronger. The limited buoyancy is expected to keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday with a broad and deep upper trough expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial development of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attend to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. Moderate low-level moisture will precede this secondary low and associated cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely in place over the TX Coast and the Lower MS Valley Monday afternoon. Even so, low to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in relatively warm profiles, keeping buoyancy minimal. Thunderstorms are possible within the broad warm sector expected to be in place from the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast, particularly along the front where forcing will be stronger. The limited buoyancy is expected to keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday with a broad and deep upper trough expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial development of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attend to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. Moderate low-level moisture will precede this secondary low and associated cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely in place over the TX Coast and the Lower MS Valley Monday afternoon. Even so, low to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in relatively warm profiles, keeping buoyancy minimal. Thunderstorms are possible within the broad warm sector expected to be in place from the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast, particularly along the front where forcing will be stronger. The limited buoyancy is expected to keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday with a broad and deep upper trough expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial development of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attend to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. Moderate low-level moisture will precede this secondary low and associated cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely in place over the TX Coast and the Lower MS Valley Monday afternoon. Even so, low to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in relatively warm profiles, keeping buoyancy minimal. Thunderstorms are possible within the broad warm sector expected to be in place from the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast, particularly along the front where forcing will be stronger. The limited buoyancy is expected to keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday with a broad and deep upper trough expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial development of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attend to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. Moderate low-level moisture will precede this secondary low and associated cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely in place over the TX Coast and the Lower MS Valley Monday afternoon. Even so, low to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in relatively warm profiles, keeping buoyancy minimal. Thunderstorms are possible within the broad warm sector expected to be in place from the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast, particularly along the front where forcing will be stronger. The limited buoyancy is expected to keep the severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into eastern KY. Progression of this system will displace it north of the more favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR. However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into eastern KY. Progression of this system will displace it north of the more favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR. However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into eastern KY. Progression of this system will displace it north of the more favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR. However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into eastern KY. Progression of this system will displace it north of the more favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR. However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is very low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into eastern KY. Progression of this system will displace it north of the more favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR. However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe potential low. ..Mosier.. 12/07/2024 Read more