SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Rain/rain showers, and possibly occasional lightning in some areas, will spread across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today. Severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low in the southern branch of a split-flow regime across the U.S. will shift eastward across the southern Plains through the day, before devolving into an open wave and accelerating across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas overnight. Ahead of the advancing low/trough, a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostropic ascent will support widespread precipitation, including elevated convection. Occasional lightning may accompany the convection locally, but due to weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Rain/rain showers, and possibly occasional lightning in some areas, will spread across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today. Severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low in the southern branch of a split-flow regime across the U.S. will shift eastward across the southern Plains through the day, before devolving into an open wave and accelerating across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas overnight. Ahead of the advancing low/trough, a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostropic ascent will support widespread precipitation, including elevated convection. Occasional lightning may accompany the convection locally, but due to weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Rain/rain showers, and possibly occasional lightning in some areas, will spread across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today. Severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low in the southern branch of a split-flow regime across the U.S. will shift eastward across the southern Plains through the day, before devolving into an open wave and accelerating across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas overnight. Ahead of the advancing low/trough, a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostropic ascent will support widespread precipitation, including elevated convection. Occasional lightning may accompany the convection locally, but due to weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Rain/rain showers, and possibly occasional lightning in some areas, will spread across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today. Severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low in the southern branch of a split-flow regime across the U.S. will shift eastward across the southern Plains through the day, before devolving into an open wave and accelerating across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas overnight. Ahead of the advancing low/trough, a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostropic ascent will support widespread precipitation, including elevated convection. Occasional lightning may accompany the convection locally, but due to weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Rain/rain showers, and possibly occasional lightning in some areas, will spread across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today. Severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low in the southern branch of a split-flow regime across the U.S. will shift eastward across the southern Plains through the day, before devolving into an open wave and accelerating across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas overnight. Ahead of the advancing low/trough, a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostropic ascent will support widespread precipitation, including elevated convection. Occasional lightning may accompany the convection locally, but due to weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Rain/rain showers, and possibly occasional lightning in some areas, will spread across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today. Severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low in the southern branch of a split-flow regime across the U.S. will shift eastward across the southern Plains through the day, before devolving into an open wave and accelerating across the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas overnight. Ahead of the advancing low/trough, a broad zone of warm advection/quasigeostropic ascent will support widespread precipitation, including elevated convection. Occasional lightning may accompany the convection locally, but due to weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across NM/northern Mexico as 500mb speed max translates into the Big Bend region. Downstream, LLJ is focused across east TX and this should gradually shift east overnight. Radar data supports this with significant precip shield from southeast OK into northeast TX. While most of this convection has been, and will likely continue to be, lightning-free, a few elevated thunderstorms may yet develop across this region ahead of the approaching short wave. Scattered, weak convection is expected to develop across the Pacific Northwest ahead of a short-wave trough tonight. Greatest potential for lightning will be with updrafts influenced by the marine layer, where buoyancy is bit higher. ..Darrow.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across NM/northern Mexico as 500mb speed max translates into the Big Bend region. Downstream, LLJ is focused across east TX and this should gradually shift east overnight. Radar data supports this with significant precip shield from southeast OK into northeast TX. While most of this convection has been, and will likely continue to be, lightning-free, a few elevated thunderstorms may yet develop across this region ahead of the approaching short wave. Scattered, weak convection is expected to develop across the Pacific Northwest ahead of a short-wave trough tonight. Greatest potential for lightning will be with updrafts influenced by the marine layer, where buoyancy is bit higher. ..Darrow.. 12/08/2024 Read more