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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast. ...Southeast... A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into middle/eastern TN. ...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning... A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong gust or two. Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of surface-based storms. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

Drought left the Brattleboro Ski Hill snowmaking pond with too little water to make snow. It was hoped that more rain would fall to refill the pond. Unofficial Networks (Brooklyn, N.Y.), Nov 5, 2024

All South Carolina counties were in incipient drought after a record-dry October, according to the S.C. Drought Response Committee on Nov. 6. The Sumter Item (S.C.), Nov 6, 2024

Drought in the U.S. slowed ranchers plans to rebuild their cattle herds, which led to higher cattle prices and caused financial losses for meat processors. In the latter part of 2024, Cargill opted to cut its labor force by 5%. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close a beef and pork plant in Emporia, Kansas and two plants in North Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Reuters (New York), Dec 2 and 4, 2024; Philly Voice (Philadelphia, Pa.), Dec 4, 2024

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today through early Tuesday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will quickly progress eastward across the lower OH river valley early this morning, and is forecast to exit off the East Coast by afternoon. In its wake, a more amplified upper wave over the Rockies will continue to shift east, resulting in broad surface pressure falls across the Plains along and ahead of a southeastward migrating cold front. This low-level mass response, while weak, will be sufficient to maintain a southerly flow regime across the lower MS river valley that will continue to advect a warm/moist air mass inland through the next 24 hours. The persistent warm advection regime over the central Gulf coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates, sampled well by 00 UTC soundings, will modulate updraft intensities and the propensity for organized convection for much of the day. The southeastward-moving cold front is forecast to reach the lower MS river valley during the overnight hours tonight. Thunderstorm chances will likely increase between 06-12 UTC as this boundary impinges on a higher theta-e air mass overspreading southeast LA into southern MS. By this time, low-level moisture advection should be sufficient to mitigate the deleterious effects of nocturnal cooling to some degree and support surface-based convection. However, the overall weak synoptic ascent over the region, combined with limited lapse-rate advection, may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection despite improving low-level thermodynamics. Nonetheless, veering in the lowest 1-2 km may support weakly rotating shallow convection. Consideration was given for low-end tornado probabilities to address this nocturnal concern; however, latest CAM ensemble guidance generally shows a very weak convective signal (aside from the typically bullish FV3 members), which limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today through early Tuesday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will quickly progress eastward across the lower OH river valley early this morning, and is forecast to exit off the East Coast by afternoon. In its wake, a more amplified upper wave over the Rockies will continue to shift east, resulting in broad surface pressure falls across the Plains along and ahead of a southeastward migrating cold front. This low-level mass response, while weak, will be sufficient to maintain a southerly flow regime across the lower MS river valley that will continue to advect a warm/moist air mass inland through the next 24 hours. The persistent warm advection regime over the central Gulf coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates, sampled well by 00 UTC soundings, will modulate updraft intensities and the propensity for organized convection for much of the day. The southeastward-moving cold front is forecast to reach the lower MS river valley during the overnight hours tonight. Thunderstorm chances will likely increase between 06-12 UTC as this boundary impinges on a higher theta-e air mass overspreading southeast LA into southern MS. By this time, low-level moisture advection should be sufficient to mitigate the deleterious effects of nocturnal cooling to some degree and support surface-based convection. However, the overall weak synoptic ascent over the region, combined with limited lapse-rate advection, may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection despite improving low-level thermodynamics. Nonetheless, veering in the lowest 1-2 km may support weakly rotating shallow convection. Consideration was given for low-end tornado probabilities to address this nocturnal concern; however, latest CAM ensemble guidance generally shows a very weak convective signal (aside from the typically bullish FV3 members), which limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today through early Tuesday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will quickly progress eastward across the lower OH river valley early this morning, and is forecast to exit off the East Coast by afternoon. In its wake, a more amplified upper wave over the Rockies will continue to shift east, resulting in broad surface pressure falls across the Plains along and ahead of a southeastward migrating cold front. This low-level mass response, while weak, will be sufficient to maintain a southerly flow regime across the lower MS river valley that will continue to advect a warm/moist air mass inland through the next 24 hours. The persistent warm advection regime over the central Gulf coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates, sampled well by 00 UTC soundings, will modulate updraft intensities and the propensity for organized convection for much of the day. The southeastward-moving cold front is forecast to reach the lower MS river valley during the overnight hours tonight. Thunderstorm chances will likely increase between 06-12 UTC as this boundary impinges on a higher theta-e air mass overspreading southeast LA into southern MS. By this time, low-level moisture advection should be sufficient to mitigate the deleterious effects of nocturnal cooling to some degree and support surface-based convection. However, the overall weak synoptic ascent over the region, combined with limited lapse-rate advection, may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection despite improving low-level thermodynamics. Nonetheless, veering in the lowest 1-2 km may support weakly rotating shallow convection. Consideration was given for low-end tornado probabilities to address this nocturnal concern; however, latest CAM ensemble guidance generally shows a very weak convective signal (aside from the typically bullish FV3 members), which limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today through early Tuesday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will quickly progress eastward across the lower OH river valley early this morning, and is forecast to exit off the East Coast by afternoon. In its wake, a more amplified upper wave over the Rockies will continue to shift east, resulting in broad surface pressure falls across the Plains along and ahead of a southeastward migrating cold front. This low-level mass response, while weak, will be sufficient to maintain a southerly flow regime across the lower MS river valley that will continue to advect a warm/moist air mass inland through the next 24 hours. The persistent warm advection regime over the central Gulf coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates, sampled well by 00 UTC soundings, will modulate updraft intensities and the propensity for organized convection for much of the day. The southeastward-moving cold front is forecast to reach the lower MS river valley during the overnight hours tonight. Thunderstorm chances will likely increase between 06-12 UTC as this boundary impinges on a higher theta-e air mass overspreading southeast LA into southern MS. By this time, low-level moisture advection should be sufficient to mitigate the deleterious effects of nocturnal cooling to some degree and support surface-based convection. However, the overall weak synoptic ascent over the region, combined with limited lapse-rate advection, may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection despite improving low-level thermodynamics. Nonetheless, veering in the lowest 1-2 km may support weakly rotating shallow convection. Consideration was given for low-end tornado probabilities to address this nocturnal concern; however, latest CAM ensemble guidance generally shows a very weak convective signal (aside from the typically bullish FV3 members), which limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today through early Tuesday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will quickly progress eastward across the lower OH river valley early this morning, and is forecast to exit off the East Coast by afternoon. In its wake, a more amplified upper wave over the Rockies will continue to shift east, resulting in broad surface pressure falls across the Plains along and ahead of a southeastward migrating cold front. This low-level mass response, while weak, will be sufficient to maintain a southerly flow regime across the lower MS river valley that will continue to advect a warm/moist air mass inland through the next 24 hours. The persistent warm advection regime over the central Gulf coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates, sampled well by 00 UTC soundings, will modulate updraft intensities and the propensity for organized convection for much of the day. The southeastward-moving cold front is forecast to reach the lower MS river valley during the overnight hours tonight. Thunderstorm chances will likely increase between 06-12 UTC as this boundary impinges on a higher theta-e air mass overspreading southeast LA into southern MS. By this time, low-level moisture advection should be sufficient to mitigate the deleterious effects of nocturnal cooling to some degree and support surface-based convection. However, the overall weak synoptic ascent over the region, combined with limited lapse-rate advection, may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection despite improving low-level thermodynamics. Nonetheless, veering in the lowest 1-2 km may support weakly rotating shallow convection. Consideration was given for low-end tornado probabilities to address this nocturnal concern; however, latest CAM ensemble guidance generally shows a very weak convective signal (aside from the typically bullish FV3 members), which limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today through early Tuesday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will quickly progress eastward across the lower OH river valley early this morning, and is forecast to exit off the East Coast by afternoon. In its wake, a more amplified upper wave over the Rockies will continue to shift east, resulting in broad surface pressure falls across the Plains along and ahead of a southeastward migrating cold front. This low-level mass response, while weak, will be sufficient to maintain a southerly flow regime across the lower MS river valley that will continue to advect a warm/moist air mass inland through the next 24 hours. The persistent warm advection regime over the central Gulf coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates, sampled well by 00 UTC soundings, will modulate updraft intensities and the propensity for organized convection for much of the day. The southeastward-moving cold front is forecast to reach the lower MS river valley during the overnight hours tonight. Thunderstorm chances will likely increase between 06-12 UTC as this boundary impinges on a higher theta-e air mass overspreading southeast LA into southern MS. By this time, low-level moisture advection should be sufficient to mitigate the deleterious effects of nocturnal cooling to some degree and support surface-based convection. However, the overall weak synoptic ascent over the region, combined with limited lapse-rate advection, may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection despite improving low-level thermodynamics. Nonetheless, veering in the lowest 1-2 km may support weakly rotating shallow convection. Consideration was given for low-end tornado probabilities to address this nocturnal concern; however, latest CAM ensemble guidance generally shows a very weak convective signal (aside from the typically bullish FV3 members), which limits confidence in the overall threat. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 Read more