Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic upper flow and stable low-level conditions are expected across the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday as surface high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the Great Basin and Four Corners before then continuing into the central/southern Plains on D5/Friday and Mid MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis will likely precede this shortwave over the central Plains on D5/Friday, with low-level moisture advection anticipated over the southern Plains as well. The quality of this moisture advection will be tempered by the strength of a preceding cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely remaining confined to the TX Gulf Coast. Even so, thunderstorms still appear possible late Friday into early Saturday along and ahead of the cold front from east TX into the Ozarks, and across the Lower MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding the quality of the moisture return (and related buoyancy) as well as general uncertainties regarding the strength and timing of the shortwave limit overall predictability of the severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Saskatchewan/western Ontario southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern PA southwestward through northern FL early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to move quickly eastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the late afternoon. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, and there could be a narrow window for a few surface-based storms Wednesday morning across coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Given the strength of the kinematic fields, even near-surface-based storms could produce strong enough downdrafts to penetrate any low-level stability that remains in place. However, buoyancy is expected to remain low, suggesting that updrafts will remain brief and shallow, limiting their potential to produce strong downdrafts. This limited buoyancy coupled with uncertainty regarding frontal position merits precluding any severe probabilities in this outlook. This region will be reassessed closely in future outlooks, and low severe probabilities may be needed if buoyancy trends higher. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Saskatchewan/western Ontario southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern PA southwestward through northern FL early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to move quickly eastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the late afternoon. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, and there could be a narrow window for a few surface-based storms Wednesday morning across coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Given the strength of the kinematic fields, even near-surface-based storms could produce strong enough downdrafts to penetrate any low-level stability that remains in place. However, buoyancy is expected to remain low, suggesting that updrafts will remain brief and shallow, limiting their potential to produce strong downdrafts. This limited buoyancy coupled with uncertainty regarding frontal position merits precluding any severe probabilities in this outlook. This region will be reassessed closely in future outlooks, and low severe probabilities may be needed if buoyancy trends higher. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Saskatchewan/western Ontario southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern PA southwestward through northern FL early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to move quickly eastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the late afternoon. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, and there could be a narrow window for a few surface-based storms Wednesday morning across coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Given the strength of the kinematic fields, even near-surface-based storms could produce strong enough downdrafts to penetrate any low-level stability that remains in place. However, buoyancy is expected to remain low, suggesting that updrafts will remain brief and shallow, limiting their potential to produce strong downdrafts. This limited buoyancy coupled with uncertainty regarding frontal position merits precluding any severe probabilities in this outlook. This region will be reassessed closely in future outlooks, and low severe probabilities may be needed if buoyancy trends higher. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Saskatchewan/western Ontario southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern PA southwestward through northern FL early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to move quickly eastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the late afternoon. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, and there could be a narrow window for a few surface-based storms Wednesday morning across coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Given the strength of the kinematic fields, even near-surface-based storms could produce strong enough downdrafts to penetrate any low-level stability that remains in place. However, buoyancy is expected to remain low, suggesting that updrafts will remain brief and shallow, limiting their potential to produce strong downdrafts. This limited buoyancy coupled with uncertainty regarding frontal position merits precluding any severe probabilities in this outlook. This region will be reassessed closely in future outlooks, and low severe probabilities may be needed if buoyancy trends higher. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Saskatchewan/western Ontario southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern PA southwestward through northern FL early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to move quickly eastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the late afternoon. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, and there could be a narrow window for a few surface-based storms Wednesday morning across coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Given the strength of the kinematic fields, even near-surface-based storms could produce strong enough downdrafts to penetrate any low-level stability that remains in place. However, buoyancy is expected to remain low, suggesting that updrafts will remain brief and shallow, limiting their potential to produce strong downdrafts. This limited buoyancy coupled with uncertainty regarding frontal position merits precluding any severe probabilities in this outlook. This region will be reassessed closely in future outlooks, and low severe probabilities may be needed if buoyancy trends higher. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Saskatchewan/western Ontario southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern PA southwestward through northern FL early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to move quickly eastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the late afternoon. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, and there could be a narrow window for a few surface-based storms Wednesday morning across coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Given the strength of the kinematic fields, even near-surface-based storms could produce strong enough downdrafts to penetrate any low-level stability that remains in place. However, buoyancy is expected to remain low, suggesting that updrafts will remain brief and shallow, limiting their potential to produce strong downdrafts. This limited buoyancy coupled with uncertainty regarding frontal position merits precluding any severe probabilities in this outlook. This region will be reassessed closely in future outlooks, and low severe probabilities may be needed if buoyancy trends higher. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Saskatchewan/western Ontario southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern PA southwestward through northern FL early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to move quickly eastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the late afternoon. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, and there could be a narrow window for a few surface-based storms Wednesday morning across coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Given the strength of the kinematic fields, even near-surface-based storms could produce strong enough downdrafts to penetrate any low-level stability that remains in place. However, buoyancy is expected to remain low, suggesting that updrafts will remain brief and shallow, limiting their potential to produce strong downdrafts. This limited buoyancy coupled with uncertainty regarding frontal position merits precluding any severe probabilities in this outlook. This region will be reassessed closely in future outlooks, and low severe probabilities may be needed if buoyancy trends higher. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Saskatchewan/western Ontario southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern PA southwestward through northern FL early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to move quickly eastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the late afternoon. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, and there could be a narrow window for a few surface-based storms Wednesday morning across coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Given the strength of the kinematic fields, even near-surface-based storms could produce strong enough downdrafts to penetrate any low-level stability that remains in place. However, buoyancy is expected to remain low, suggesting that updrafts will remain brief and shallow, limiting their potential to produce strong downdrafts. This limited buoyancy coupled with uncertainty regarding frontal position merits precluding any severe probabilities in this outlook. This region will be reassessed closely in future outlooks, and low severe probabilities may be needed if buoyancy trends higher. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024 Read more

MD 2252 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR EASTERN MONTANA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0859 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Montana and far western North Dakota Concerning...Blizzard Valid 090259Z - 090900Z SUMMARY...Sporadic blizzard conditions are likely through the overnight hours across eastern Montana and into far western North Dakota. Conditions are expected to deteriorate steadily between 06-12 UTC as light to moderate snow fall rates coincide with 30-35 mph winds. DISCUSSION...Temperatures across eastern MT have been steadily falling to below freezing as a cold front begins to push south into the northern Plains. This has been promoting a change over from a wintry mix to predominantly snow, which is expected to gradually spread southeast through early Monday morning as a surface low translates east along the international border. Sustained gradient winds between 30-35 mph are being observed with gusts upwards of 40-45 mph. Blowing snow model output suggests that with light to moderate snow fall rates (0.25-0.5 in/hour) and temperatures in the low 30s, these sustained winds will result in sporadic/transient blizzard conditions with more significant/widespread visibility reductions likely where gusts exceed 40 mph. Early indications of this trend have already been noted across northeast MT where periodic visibility reductions down to 1/2 mile have been coincident with gusts over 40 mph. Such conditions should become more common across eastern MT/far western ND as the surface freezing line pushes south and supports snow as the primary precipitation type. Recent HRRR solutions suggest sporadic blizzard conditions will begin to impact the I-94 corridor as early as 05-06 UTC. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 48760638 48770564 48700492 48540444 47410350 46950331 46500343 46100377 45860421 45840482 45930550 46150620 46550671 46950713 47420737 47950743 48230730 48590696 48760638 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday morning along the southern California coast. An unseasonably strong surface high across the northern Great Basin will maintain a robust offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast for much of Tuesday and into early Wednesday (see the current D1 Fire Outlook for additional details regarding the synoptic regime). Recent guidance continues to suggest that the LAX-DAG gradient should peak sometime during the 12-17 UTC period Tuesday morning at around -9 to -10 mb. A gradient of this magnitude typically supports wind gusts within the coastal terrain between 50-70 mph, though localized stronger gusts appear possible based on some high-res solutions. By early Tuesday morning the offshore flow regime will be well established with 12 hours of preceding downslope warming/drying. Not only will this support more widespread areas of single-digit RH values (and extremely critical fire weather conditions), but should also promote rapid curing/drying of 1 and 10-hour fuels. Consequently, the greatest fire weather threat will likely emerge Tuesday morning. Recent ensemble guidance and high-res deterministic solutions suggests extremely critical conditions will be most widespread across western Los Angeles and eastern Ventura counties within the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre mountains, though localized extremely critical conditions will be possible further south along the southern CA coast. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 12/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more