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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms appears low. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough covering much of the CONUS is forecast to amplify further on Monday, as multiple shortwaves move through the large-scale trough. One shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the OH/TN Valley region toward the Mid Atlantic during the day, as a trailing low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from Texas into the Southeast. Farther north and west, a strong shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region, while another shortwave will dig southeastward from the Great Basin into the Southwest/southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cyclone is forecast to move eastward from north TX toward the ArkLaMiss region, as a trailing cold front approaches the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast/Mid-South... Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will continue to gradually spread northward across parts of the Southeast on Monday, in advance of the approaching cold front and weak surface low. Some weak convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning near the central Gulf Coast vicinity within a zone of low-level warm/moist advection. This convection may persist through the day, though some weakening and veering of low-level flow is expected as the lead midlevel shortwave trough moves quickly away from the region toward the Mid Atlantic. Late in the period, as midlevel height falls associated with the amplifying large-scale trough overspread the region, convection may redevelop near the Gulf Coast vicinity, and also farther north toward the Mid-South. Deep-layer flow/shear will be conditionally favorable for organized convection through the forecast period, but weak low/midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit instability with both early-day convection and also with any development later Monday night. The weak instability is expected to limit the organized-severe threat, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, and probabilities may need to be considered if trends support stronger heating/destabilization than currently forecast. ..Dean.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more