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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms remains very low. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will encourage broad low-level warm-air/moisture advection across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley regions. Latest guidance consensus continues to depict a warm-sector characterized by scant buoyancy, with widespread rainfall and embedded elevated thunderstorms expected to overspread the Lower MS and TN Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. High-resolution guidance consensus hints at the possibility of 100-500 J/kg SBCAPE over southern LA by afternoon peak heating, amid curved and elongated hodographs. While a rotating storm or perhaps brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the lack of confidence in developing surface-based buoyancy precludes severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms remains very low. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will encourage broad low-level warm-air/moisture advection across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley regions. Latest guidance consensus continues to depict a warm-sector characterized by scant buoyancy, with widespread rainfall and embedded elevated thunderstorms expected to overspread the Lower MS and TN Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. High-resolution guidance consensus hints at the possibility of 100-500 J/kg SBCAPE over southern LA by afternoon peak heating, amid curved and elongated hodographs. While a rotating storm or perhaps brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the lack of confidence in developing surface-based buoyancy precludes severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms remains very low. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will encourage broad low-level warm-air/moisture advection across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley regions. Latest guidance consensus continues to depict a warm-sector characterized by scant buoyancy, with widespread rainfall and embedded elevated thunderstorms expected to overspread the Lower MS and TN Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. High-resolution guidance consensus hints at the possibility of 100-500 J/kg SBCAPE over southern LA by afternoon peak heating, amid curved and elongated hodographs. While a rotating storm or perhaps brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the lack of confidence in developing surface-based buoyancy precludes severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms remains very low. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will encourage broad low-level warm-air/moisture advection across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley regions. Latest guidance consensus continues to depict a warm-sector characterized by scant buoyancy, with widespread rainfall and embedded elevated thunderstorms expected to overspread the Lower MS and TN Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. High-resolution guidance consensus hints at the possibility of 100-500 J/kg SBCAPE over southern LA by afternoon peak heating, amid curved and elongated hodographs. While a rotating storm or perhaps brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the lack of confidence in developing surface-based buoyancy precludes severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms remains very low. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will encourage broad low-level warm-air/moisture advection across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley regions. Latest guidance consensus continues to depict a warm-sector characterized by scant buoyancy, with widespread rainfall and embedded elevated thunderstorms expected to overspread the Lower MS and TN Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. High-resolution guidance consensus hints at the possibility of 100-500 J/kg SBCAPE over southern LA by afternoon peak heating, amid curved and elongated hodographs. While a rotating storm or perhaps brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the lack of confidence in developing surface-based buoyancy precludes severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms remains very low. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will encourage broad low-level warm-air/moisture advection across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley regions. Latest guidance consensus continues to depict a warm-sector characterized by scant buoyancy, with widespread rainfall and embedded elevated thunderstorms expected to overspread the Lower MS and TN Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. High-resolution guidance consensus hints at the possibility of 100-500 J/kg SBCAPE over southern LA by afternoon peak heating, amid curved and elongated hodographs. While a rotating storm or perhaps brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the lack of confidence in developing surface-based buoyancy precludes severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms remains very low. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will encourage broad low-level warm-air/moisture advection across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley regions. Latest guidance consensus continues to depict a warm-sector characterized by scant buoyancy, with widespread rainfall and embedded elevated thunderstorms expected to overspread the Lower MS and TN Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. High-resolution guidance consensus hints at the possibility of 100-500 J/kg SBCAPE over southern LA by afternoon peak heating, amid curved and elongated hodographs. While a rotating storm or perhaps brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the lack of confidence in developing surface-based buoyancy precludes severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. ..Hart/Dean.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. ..Hart/Dean.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. ..Hart/Dean.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. ..Hart/Dean.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. ..Hart/Dean.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. ..Hart/Dean.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. ..Hart/Dean.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Within a split flow regime, the southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/northern Mexico will become more east-northeastward progressive today, while a low-amplitude belt of progressive westerlies evolves across the northern tier and Canada. Semi-persistent and east/northeastward-expanding thunderstorm potential today will be focused across much of central/east/north Texas and possibly nearby parts of the ArkLaTex and/or far southeast Oklahoma. These will be elevated thunderstorms aided by DPVA and semi-persistent warm advection and elevated moisture transport. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited buoyancy. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes could occur late tonight near coastal Washington as lapse rates steepen in the wake of an inland-advancing front. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Within a split flow regime, the southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/northern Mexico will become more east-northeastward progressive today, while a low-amplitude belt of progressive westerlies evolves across the northern tier and Canada. Semi-persistent and east/northeastward-expanding thunderstorm potential today will be focused across much of central/east/north Texas and possibly nearby parts of the ArkLaTex and/or far southeast Oklahoma. These will be elevated thunderstorms aided by DPVA and semi-persistent warm advection and elevated moisture transport. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited buoyancy. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes could occur late tonight near coastal Washington as lapse rates steepen in the wake of an inland-advancing front. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/07/2024 Read more