Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 7 21:50:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. At the same time, an upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific strengthen. This pattern will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -7 to -8.5 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 4/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook. The 40 percent region was expanded further southward to account for trends in recent data suggesting more widespread Elevated to Critical conditions. Areas of Extremely Critical conditions may be possible Tuesday where single digits humidities overlap stronger winds in favored downslope regions of the mountains and foothills. Fire weather concerns may linger into Wednesday morning before gradients begin to gradually weaken through the day. Given the potential for a long period of Critical conditions prior, a 40 percent delineation was added to cover the continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday. As the western trough ejects across the Plains D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. At the same time, an upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific strengthen. This pattern will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -7 to -8.5 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 4/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook. The 40 percent region was expanded further southward to account for trends in recent data suggesting more widespread Elevated to Critical conditions. Areas of Extremely Critical conditions may be possible Tuesday where single digits humidities overlap stronger winds in favored downslope regions of the mountains and foothills. Fire weather concerns may linger into Wednesday morning before gradients begin to gradually weaken through the day. Given the potential for a long period of Critical conditions prior, a 40 percent delineation was added to cover the continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday. As the western trough ejects across the Plains D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. At the same time, an upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific strengthen. This pattern will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -7 to -8.5 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 4/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook. The 40 percent region was expanded further southward to account for trends in recent data suggesting more widespread Elevated to Critical conditions. Areas of Extremely Critical conditions may be possible Tuesday where single digits humidities overlap stronger winds in favored downslope regions of the mountains and foothills. Fire weather concerns may linger into Wednesday morning before gradients begin to gradually weaken through the day. Given the potential for a long period of Critical conditions prior, a 40 percent delineation was added to cover the continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday. As the western trough ejects across the Plains D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. At the same time, an upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific strengthen. This pattern will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -7 to -8.5 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 4/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook. The 40 percent region was expanded further southward to account for trends in recent data suggesting more widespread Elevated to Critical conditions. Areas of Extremely Critical conditions may be possible Tuesday where single digits humidities overlap stronger winds in favored downslope regions of the mountains and foothills. Fire weather concerns may linger into Wednesday morning before gradients begin to gradually weaken through the day. Given the potential for a long period of Critical conditions prior, a 40 percent delineation was added to cover the continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday. As the western trough ejects across the Plains D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. At the same time, an upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific strengthen. This pattern will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -7 to -8.5 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 4/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook. The 40 percent region was expanded further southward to account for trends in recent data suggesting more widespread Elevated to Critical conditions. Areas of Extremely Critical conditions may be possible Tuesday where single digits humidities overlap stronger winds in favored downslope regions of the mountains and foothills. Fire weather concerns may linger into Wednesday morning before gradients begin to gradually weaken through the day. Given the potential for a long period of Critical conditions prior, a 40 percent delineation was added to cover the continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday. As the western trough ejects across the Plains D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday - Southern California... Large-scale trough amplification is forecast over the western CONUS early next week. At the same time, an upstream ridge over the eastern Pacific strengthen. This pattern will result in strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. Offshore pressure gradients will tighten across southern CA (LAX-DAG gradient peaking around -7 to -8.5 mb). This pattern will favor critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest on Day 4/Tuesday as the pressure gradient peaks, and 70-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook. The 40 percent region was expanded further southward to account for trends in recent data suggesting more widespread Elevated to Critical conditions. Areas of Extremely Critical conditions may be possible Tuesday where single digits humidities overlap stronger winds in favored downslope regions of the mountains and foothills. Fire weather concerns may linger into Wednesday morning before gradients begin to gradually weaken through the day. Given the potential for a long period of Critical conditions prior, a 40 percent delineation was added to cover the continuance of this threat overnight Tuesday into the late morning Wednesday. As the western trough ejects across the Plains D4/Tuesday into D5/Wednesday, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however, fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. Additional precipitation will be possible across portions of the Southern Plains which may also contribute to less receptive fuels. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will continue to support isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon across parts of central and eastern TX. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests storms will gradually decrease in coverage with lightning becoming more sporadic through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest with weak buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the advancing Pacific Trough. Severe storms are not expected, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will continue to support isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon across parts of central and eastern TX. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests storms will gradually decrease in coverage with lightning becoming more sporadic through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest with weak buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the advancing Pacific Trough. Severe storms are not expected, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will continue to support isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon across parts of central and eastern TX. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests storms will gradually decrease in coverage with lightning becoming more sporadic through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest with weak buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the advancing Pacific Trough. Severe storms are not expected, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will continue to support isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon across parts of central and eastern TX. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests storms will gradually decrease in coverage with lightning becoming more sporadic through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest with weak buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the advancing Pacific Trough. Severe storms are not expected, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will continue to support isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon across parts of central and eastern TX. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests storms will gradually decrease in coverage with lightning becoming more sporadic through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest with weak buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the advancing Pacific Trough. Severe storms are not expected, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will continue to support isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon across parts of central and eastern TX. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests storms will gradually decrease in coverage with lightning becoming more sporadic through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest with weak buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the advancing Pacific Trough. Severe storms are not expected, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more