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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ..Moore.. 12/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024 Read more

The Delaware River Basin Commission passed resolutions declaring a "water supply emergency" and issued two special permits to coordinate the operation of regional reservoirs, out-of-Basin water diversions and Delaware River flow objectives should "Basinwide drought" conditions be reached. Delaware River Basin Commission (Trenton, N.J.), Dec 5, 2024

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm potential will persist overnight from central and southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms -- associated with a nearly stationary mid-level low centered near Nogales AZ -- have occurred over the past several hours. A few flashes will remain possible this evening, aided by steep lapse rates aloft associated with the mid-level cold pool. Overall however, a diminishing trend is expected. Farther east, across southern New Mexico and particularly into central and eastern Texas, low-level warm advection is resulting in weak ascent. This ascent is supporting showery convection across central and southeastern Texas, which should continue through the night. Occasional lightning flashes will be possible across the region, within this warm-advection regime. In these areas, severe weather is not expected, and thunderstorm potential appears nil across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Goss.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm potential will persist overnight from central and southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms -- associated with a nearly stationary mid-level low centered near Nogales AZ -- have occurred over the past several hours. A few flashes will remain possible this evening, aided by steep lapse rates aloft associated with the mid-level cold pool. Overall however, a diminishing trend is expected. Farther east, across southern New Mexico and particularly into central and eastern Texas, low-level warm advection is resulting in weak ascent. This ascent is supporting showery convection across central and southeastern Texas, which should continue through the night. Occasional lightning flashes will be possible across the region, within this warm-advection regime. In these areas, severe weather is not expected, and thunderstorm potential appears nil across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Goss.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm potential will persist overnight from central and southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms -- associated with a nearly stationary mid-level low centered near Nogales AZ -- have occurred over the past several hours. A few flashes will remain possible this evening, aided by steep lapse rates aloft associated with the mid-level cold pool. Overall however, a diminishing trend is expected. Farther east, across southern New Mexico and particularly into central and eastern Texas, low-level warm advection is resulting in weak ascent. This ascent is supporting showery convection across central and southeastern Texas, which should continue through the night. Occasional lightning flashes will be possible across the region, within this warm-advection regime. In these areas, severe weather is not expected, and thunderstorm potential appears nil across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Goss.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm potential will persist overnight from central and southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico to East Texas. ...Discussion... A few thunderstorms -- associated with a nearly stationary mid-level low centered near Nogales AZ -- have occurred over the past several hours. A few flashes will remain possible this evening, aided by steep lapse rates aloft associated with the mid-level cold pool. Overall however, a diminishing trend is expected. Farther east, across southern New Mexico and particularly into central and eastern Texas, low-level warm advection is resulting in weak ascent. This ascent is supporting showery convection across central and southeastern Texas, which should continue through the night. Occasional lightning flashes will be possible across the region, within this warm-advection regime. In these areas, severe weather is not expected, and thunderstorm potential appears nil across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Goss.. 12/07/2024 Read more

MD 2251 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 2251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Areas affected...portions of western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 062014Z - 070115Z SUMMARY...Lake-effect snow rates approaching 2 inches an hour are possible into the evening hours. DISCUSSION...A lake-effect snow band is ongoing across portions of Lake Ontario, which is impinging on Oswego County NY and is producing heavy snow based on the Fulton/Oswego County Airport ASOS. Some slight backing of the low-level winds from northwesterly to westerly, as shown by surface observations, will support a longer fetch of moisture across Lake Ontario. These backing winds may help intensify the ongoing snow band, as well as encourage this band to take on a slightly more west-to-east orientation over the next several hours. While at least one inch/hr rates are likely in the immediate term, snowfall rates approaching 2 inches/hr may be possible later this afternoon and evening. ..Squitieri.. 12/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43517674 43677667 43747647 43757625 43637594 43467581 43407581 43277585 43227599 43277632 43317654 43517674 Read more