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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas. Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee. The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of overly organized convection for much of the day. The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception. Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas. Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee. The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of overly organized convection for much of the day. The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception. Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas. Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee. The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of overly organized convection for much of the day. The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception. Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas. Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee. The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of overly organized convection for much of the day. The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception. Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas. Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee. The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of overly organized convection for much of the day. The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception. Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. The potential for severe thunderstorms currently appears low. ...Southeast States... Neutral height tendencies will tend to prevail over the region as a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley races east-northward toward the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. Convergence will tend to remain weak diurnally near a northward-shifting warm front across the Tennessee Valley, until modest surface cyclogenesis occurs tonight across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, coincident with a stronger secondary cold front accelerating southeastward across the ArkLaMiss/East Texas. Semi-steady warm/moist advection will persist in/near the warm sector spanning parts of Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama into eventually nearby portions of Georgia and Tennessee. The persistent warm advection regime over the middle Gulf Coast will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances through the day. Despite 40-50 knot mid-level flow, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will modulate updraft intensities and tend to limit the likelihood of overly organized convection for much of the day. The potential for thunderstorms should regionally increase tonight as the aforementioned upstream cold front/modestly deepening surface low interact with higher theta-e air. Even with favorable low-level moistening/destabilization trends, the scenario may not provide sufficient destabilization for robust deep convection tonight. As mentioned in the prior outlook discussion, most convection-allowing guidance remains rather subdued as far as severe attributes, with the typically aggressive FV3 being a modest exception. Subsequent outlooks will closely reevaluate this scenario and the potential need for low wind/tornado probabilities, as more favorable destabilization trends could prompt more of a severe risk given the severe-conducive deep-layer/low-level shear. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/09/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic upper flow and stable low-level conditions are expected across the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday as surface high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the Great Basin and Four Corners before then continuing into the central/southern Plains on D5/Friday and Mid MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis will likely precede this shortwave over the central Plains on D5/Friday, with low-level moisture advection anticipated over the southern Plains as well. The quality of this moisture advection will be tempered by the strength of a preceding cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely remaining confined to the TX Gulf Coast. Even so, thunderstorms still appear possible late Friday into early Saturday along and ahead of the cold front from east TX into the Ozarks, and across the Lower MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding the quality of the moisture return (and related buoyancy) as well as general uncertainties regarding the strength and timing of the shortwave limit overall predictability of the severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic upper flow and stable low-level conditions are expected across the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday as surface high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the Great Basin and Four Corners before then continuing into the central/southern Plains on D5/Friday and Mid MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis will likely precede this shortwave over the central Plains on D5/Friday, with low-level moisture advection anticipated over the southern Plains as well. The quality of this moisture advection will be tempered by the strength of a preceding cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely remaining confined to the TX Gulf Coast. Even so, thunderstorms still appear possible late Friday into early Saturday along and ahead of the cold front from east TX into the Ozarks, and across the Lower MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding the quality of the moisture return (and related buoyancy) as well as general uncertainties regarding the strength and timing of the shortwave limit overall predictability of the severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic upper flow and stable low-level conditions are expected across the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday as surface high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the Great Basin and Four Corners before then continuing into the central/southern Plains on D5/Friday and Mid MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis will likely precede this shortwave over the central Plains on D5/Friday, with low-level moisture advection anticipated over the southern Plains as well. The quality of this moisture advection will be tempered by the strength of a preceding cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely remaining confined to the TX Gulf Coast. Even so, thunderstorms still appear possible late Friday into early Saturday along and ahead of the cold front from east TX into the Ozarks, and across the Lower MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding the quality of the moisture return (and related buoyancy) as well as general uncertainties regarding the strength and timing of the shortwave limit overall predictability of the severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic upper flow and stable low-level conditions are expected across the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday as surface high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the Great Basin and Four Corners before then continuing into the central/southern Plains on D5/Friday and Mid MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis will likely precede this shortwave over the central Plains on D5/Friday, with low-level moisture advection anticipated over the southern Plains as well. The quality of this moisture advection will be tempered by the strength of a preceding cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely remaining confined to the TX Gulf Coast. Even so, thunderstorms still appear possible late Friday into early Saturday along and ahead of the cold front from east TX into the Ozarks, and across the Lower MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding the quality of the moisture return (and related buoyancy) as well as general uncertainties regarding the strength and timing of the shortwave limit overall predictability of the severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic upper flow and stable low-level conditions are expected across the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday as surface high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the Great Basin and Four Corners before then continuing into the central/southern Plains on D5/Friday and Mid MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis will likely precede this shortwave over the central Plains on D5/Friday, with low-level moisture advection anticipated over the southern Plains as well. The quality of this moisture advection will be tempered by the strength of a preceding cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely remaining confined to the TX Gulf Coast. Even so, thunderstorms still appear possible late Friday into early Saturday along and ahead of the cold front from east TX into the Ozarks, and across the Lower MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding the quality of the moisture return (and related buoyancy) as well as general uncertainties regarding the strength and timing of the shortwave limit overall predictability of the severe thunderstorm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic upper flow and stable low-level conditions are expected across the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday as surface high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the Great Basin and Four Corners before then continuing into the central/southern Plains on D5/Friday and Mid MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis will likely precede this shortwave over the central Plains on D5/Friday, with low-level moisture advection anticipated over the southern Plains as well. The quality of this moisture advection will be tempered by the strength of a preceding cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely remaining confined to the TX Gulf Coast. Even so, thunderstorms still appear possible late Friday into early Saturday along and ahead of the cold front from east TX into the Ozarks, and across the Lower MS Valley on D6/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding the quality of the moisture return (and related buoyancy) as well as general uncertainties regarding the strength and timing of the shortwave limit overall predictability of the severe thunderstorm potential. Read more