Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the central Rockies through the central Plains on D4/Friday. An associated surface low will take a similar track just ahead of the parent wave, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward across the southern/central Plains. Some modest moisture return will precede this front, and thunderstorms appear possible from east TX into the Lower MO Valley D4/Friday night into D5/Saturday morning. A few strong storms are possible, but overall buoyancy will likely remain modest due to warm mid-level temperatures, and the highest dewpoints are expected to remain displaced south of the better forcing. This shortwave and attendant cold front will likely continue eastward on into the MS Valley on D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South on D5/Saturday and the Carolinas on D6/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep any severe-weather threat isolated. Another shortwave trough is expected to move across CA and the Great Basin on D6/Sunday and through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley on D7/Monday. Similar to the earlier shortwave, the strongest forcing for ascent with this shortwave is expected to remain displaced north of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, likely tempering the overall severe potential. Even so, thunderstorms are possible, and greater moisture return (and buoyancy) is possible if the preceding cold front remains weak over the southern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the central Rockies through the central Plains on D4/Friday. An associated surface low will take a similar track just ahead of the parent wave, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward across the southern/central Plains. Some modest moisture return will precede this front, and thunderstorms appear possible from east TX into the Lower MO Valley D4/Friday night into D5/Saturday morning. A few strong storms are possible, but overall buoyancy will likely remain modest due to warm mid-level temperatures, and the highest dewpoints are expected to remain displaced south of the better forcing. This shortwave and attendant cold front will likely continue eastward on into the MS Valley on D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South on D5/Saturday and the Carolinas on D6/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep any severe-weather threat isolated. Another shortwave trough is expected to move across CA and the Great Basin on D6/Sunday and through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley on D7/Monday. Similar to the earlier shortwave, the strongest forcing for ascent with this shortwave is expected to remain displaced north of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, likely tempering the overall severe potential. Even so, thunderstorms are possible, and greater moisture return (and buoyancy) is possible if the preceding cold front remains weak over the southern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the central Rockies through the central Plains on D4/Friday. An associated surface low will take a similar track just ahead of the parent wave, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward across the southern/central Plains. Some modest moisture return will precede this front, and thunderstorms appear possible from east TX into the Lower MO Valley D4/Friday night into D5/Saturday morning. A few strong storms are possible, but overall buoyancy will likely remain modest due to warm mid-level temperatures, and the highest dewpoints are expected to remain displaced south of the better forcing. This shortwave and attendant cold front will likely continue eastward on into the MS Valley on D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South on D5/Saturday and the Carolinas on D6/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep any severe-weather threat isolated. Another shortwave trough is expected to move across CA and the Great Basin on D6/Sunday and through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley on D7/Monday. Similar to the earlier shortwave, the strongest forcing for ascent with this shortwave is expected to remain displaced north of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, likely tempering the overall severe potential. Even so, thunderstorms are possible, and greater moisture return (and buoyancy) is possible if the preceding cold front remains weak over the southern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the central Rockies through the central Plains on D4/Friday. An associated surface low will take a similar track just ahead of the parent wave, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward across the southern/central Plains. Some modest moisture return will precede this front, and thunderstorms appear possible from east TX into the Lower MO Valley D4/Friday night into D5/Saturday morning. A few strong storms are possible, but overall buoyancy will likely remain modest due to warm mid-level temperatures, and the highest dewpoints are expected to remain displaced south of the better forcing. This shortwave and attendant cold front will likely continue eastward on into the MS Valley on D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South on D5/Saturday and the Carolinas on D6/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep any severe-weather threat isolated. Another shortwave trough is expected to move across CA and the Great Basin on D6/Sunday and through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley on D7/Monday. Similar to the earlier shortwave, the strongest forcing for ascent with this shortwave is expected to remain displaced north of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, likely tempering the overall severe potential. Even so, thunderstorms are possible, and greater moisture return (and buoyancy) is possible if the preceding cold front remains weak over the southern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the central Rockies through the central Plains on D4/Friday. An associated surface low will take a similar track just ahead of the parent wave, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward across the southern/central Plains. Some modest moisture return will precede this front, and thunderstorms appear possible from east TX into the Lower MO Valley D4/Friday night into D5/Saturday morning. A few strong storms are possible, but overall buoyancy will likely remain modest due to warm mid-level temperatures, and the highest dewpoints are expected to remain displaced south of the better forcing. This shortwave and attendant cold front will likely continue eastward on into the MS Valley on D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South on D5/Saturday and the Carolinas on D6/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep any severe-weather threat isolated. Another shortwave trough is expected to move across CA and the Great Basin on D6/Sunday and through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley on D7/Monday. Similar to the earlier shortwave, the strongest forcing for ascent with this shortwave is expected to remain displaced north of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, likely tempering the overall severe potential. Even so, thunderstorms are possible, and greater moisture return (and buoyancy) is possible if the preceding cold front remains weak over the southern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the central Rockies through the central Plains on D4/Friday. An associated surface low will take a similar track just ahead of the parent wave, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward across the southern/central Plains. Some modest moisture return will precede this front, and thunderstorms appear possible from east TX into the Lower MO Valley D4/Friday night into D5/Saturday morning. A few strong storms are possible, but overall buoyancy will likely remain modest due to warm mid-level temperatures, and the highest dewpoints are expected to remain displaced south of the better forcing. This shortwave and attendant cold front will likely continue eastward on into the MS Valley on D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South on D5/Saturday and the Carolinas on D6/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep any severe-weather threat isolated. Another shortwave trough is expected to move across CA and the Great Basin on D6/Sunday and through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley on D7/Monday. Similar to the earlier shortwave, the strongest forcing for ascent with this shortwave is expected to remain displaced north of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, likely tempering the overall severe potential. Even so, thunderstorms are possible, and greater moisture return (and buoyancy) is possible if the preceding cold front remains weak over the southern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the central Rockies through the central Plains on D4/Friday. An associated surface low will take a similar track just ahead of the parent wave, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward across the southern/central Plains. Some modest moisture return will precede this front, and thunderstorms appear possible from east TX into the Lower MO Valley D4/Friday night into D5/Saturday morning. A few strong storms are possible, but overall buoyancy will likely remain modest due to warm mid-level temperatures, and the highest dewpoints are expected to remain displaced south of the better forcing. This shortwave and attendant cold front will likely continue eastward on into the MS Valley on D5/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South on D5/Saturday and the Carolinas on D6/Sunday. Limited buoyancy should keep any severe-weather threat isolated. Another shortwave trough is expected to move across CA and the Great Basin on D6/Sunday and through the central Plains and Mid MS Valley on D7/Monday. Similar to the earlier shortwave, the strongest forcing for ascent with this shortwave is expected to remain displaced north of the better low-level moisture and buoyancy, likely tempering the overall severe potential. Even so, thunderstorms are possible, and greater moisture return (and buoyancy) is possible if the preceding cold front remains weak over the southern Plains. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone is forecast to be over the Ontario/Quebec vicinity early Thursday morning, with cyclonic flow throughout its base extending from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. This cyclone is expected to gradually shift eastward through Quebec, with the associated cyclonic flow shifting northward and eastward as well. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from southern CA across the Southwest. At the surface, extensive ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Modest lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, scouring of the low-level moisture by an antecedent frontal passage will limit moisture advection, with stable conditions prevailing across the central and southern Plains as well. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone is forecast to be over the Ontario/Quebec vicinity early Thursday morning, with cyclonic flow throughout its base extending from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. This cyclone is expected to gradually shift eastward through Quebec, with the associated cyclonic flow shifting northward and eastward as well. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from southern CA across the Southwest. At the surface, extensive ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Modest lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, scouring of the low-level moisture by an antecedent frontal passage will limit moisture advection, with stable conditions prevailing across the central and southern Plains as well. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone is forecast to be over the Ontario/Quebec vicinity early Thursday morning, with cyclonic flow throughout its base extending from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. This cyclone is expected to gradually shift eastward through Quebec, with the associated cyclonic flow shifting northward and eastward as well. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from southern CA across the Southwest. At the surface, extensive ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Modest lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, scouring of the low-level moisture by an antecedent frontal passage will limit moisture advection, with stable conditions prevailing across the central and southern Plains as well. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone is forecast to be over the Ontario/Quebec vicinity early Thursday morning, with cyclonic flow throughout its base extending from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. This cyclone is expected to gradually shift eastward through Quebec, with the associated cyclonic flow shifting northward and eastward as well. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from southern CA across the Southwest. At the surface, extensive ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Modest lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, scouring of the low-level moisture by an antecedent frontal passage will limit moisture advection, with stable conditions prevailing across the central and southern Plains as well. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone is forecast to be over the Ontario/Quebec vicinity early Thursday morning, with cyclonic flow throughout its base extending from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. This cyclone is expected to gradually shift eastward through Quebec, with the associated cyclonic flow shifting northward and eastward as well. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from southern CA across the Southwest. At the surface, extensive ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Modest lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, scouring of the low-level moisture by an antecedent frontal passage will limit moisture advection, with stable conditions prevailing across the central and southern Plains as well. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone is forecast to be over the Ontario/Quebec vicinity early Thursday morning, with cyclonic flow throughout its base extending from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. This cyclone is expected to gradually shift eastward through Quebec, with the associated cyclonic flow shifting northward and eastward as well. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from southern CA across the Southwest. At the surface, extensive ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Modest lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, scouring of the low-level moisture by an antecedent frontal passage will limit moisture advection, with stable conditions prevailing across the central and southern Plains as well. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone is forecast to be over the Ontario/Quebec vicinity early Thursday morning, with cyclonic flow throughout its base extending from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. This cyclone is expected to gradually shift eastward through Quebec, with the associated cyclonic flow shifting northward and eastward as well. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from southern CA across the Southwest. At the surface, extensive ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Modest lee troughing is anticipated across the High Plains ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, scouring of the low-level moisture by an antecedent frontal passage will limit moisture advection, with stable conditions prevailing across the central and southern Plains as well. ..Mosier.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ..Moore.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ..Moore.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ..Moore.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ..Moore.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ..Moore.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ..Moore.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more