SPC Dec 11, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected in the extended, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs forecast to traverse the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series will likely be over the central Plains on D4/Saturday morning before then moving through the Mid MS Valley by late D4/Saturday and through the OH Valley on D5/Sunday. Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the first, progressing across the Great Basin and Four Corners on D5/Sunday and the southern/central Plains on D6/Monday. This wave may phase with another shortwave moving through central Canada, with resultant troughing extended from the Canadian Prairies into the southern Plains by D6/Monday afternoon. Yet another shortwave is currently progged to drop from the Pacific Northwest/northern CA into the Great Basin late D6/Monday. Guidance varies significantly on the evolution of this wave, and its strength/maturity and location currently have limited predictability. Moisture return is anticipated across the Plains ahead of each of these waves. Enough moisture and buoyancy should exist ahead of the first shortwave to support thunderstorms, as it moves eastward on into the MS Valley on D4/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. The most significant moisture return is currently expected ahead of the second shortwave on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Thunderstorms are likely as the shortwave and associated cold front interact with this return moisture, although variability within the guidance of the strength and speed of this wave results in differing areas of highest thunderstorm coverage. Some severe appears possible, particularly if the wave is stronger and further south as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF. Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected in the extended, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs forecast to traverse the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series will likely be over the central Plains on D4/Saturday morning before then moving through the Mid MS Valley by late D4/Saturday and through the OH Valley on D5/Sunday. Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the first, progressing across the Great Basin and Four Corners on D5/Sunday and the southern/central Plains on D6/Monday. This wave may phase with another shortwave moving through central Canada, with resultant troughing extended from the Canadian Prairies into the southern Plains by D6/Monday afternoon. Yet another shortwave is currently progged to drop from the Pacific Northwest/northern CA into the Great Basin late D6/Monday. Guidance varies significantly on the evolution of this wave, and its strength/maturity and location currently have limited predictability. Moisture return is anticipated across the Plains ahead of each of these waves. Enough moisture and buoyancy should exist ahead of the first shortwave to support thunderstorms, as it moves eastward on into the MS Valley on D4/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. The most significant moisture return is currently expected ahead of the second shortwave on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Thunderstorms are likely as the shortwave and associated cold front interact with this return moisture, although variability within the guidance of the strength and speed of this wave results in differing areas of highest thunderstorm coverage. Some severe appears possible, particularly if the wave is stronger and further south as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF. Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected in the extended, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs forecast to traverse the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series will likely be over the central Plains on D4/Saturday morning before then moving through the Mid MS Valley by late D4/Saturday and through the OH Valley on D5/Sunday. Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the first, progressing across the Great Basin and Four Corners on D5/Sunday and the southern/central Plains on D6/Monday. This wave may phase with another shortwave moving through central Canada, with resultant troughing extended from the Canadian Prairies into the southern Plains by D6/Monday afternoon. Yet another shortwave is currently progged to drop from the Pacific Northwest/northern CA into the Great Basin late D6/Monday. Guidance varies significantly on the evolution of this wave, and its strength/maturity and location currently have limited predictability. Moisture return is anticipated across the Plains ahead of each of these waves. Enough moisture and buoyancy should exist ahead of the first shortwave to support thunderstorms, as it moves eastward on into the MS Valley on D4/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. The most significant moisture return is currently expected ahead of the second shortwave on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Thunderstorms are likely as the shortwave and associated cold front interact with this return moisture, although variability within the guidance of the strength and speed of this wave results in differing areas of highest thunderstorm coverage. Some severe appears possible, particularly if the wave is stronger and further south as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF. Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected in the extended, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs forecast to traverse the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series will likely be over the central Plains on D4/Saturday morning before then moving through the Mid MS Valley by late D4/Saturday and through the OH Valley on D5/Sunday. Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the first, progressing across the Great Basin and Four Corners on D5/Sunday and the southern/central Plains on D6/Monday. This wave may phase with another shortwave moving through central Canada, with resultant troughing extended from the Canadian Prairies into the southern Plains by D6/Monday afternoon. Yet another shortwave is currently progged to drop from the Pacific Northwest/northern CA into the Great Basin late D6/Monday. Guidance varies significantly on the evolution of this wave, and its strength/maturity and location currently have limited predictability. Moisture return is anticipated across the Plains ahead of each of these waves. Enough moisture and buoyancy should exist ahead of the first shortwave to support thunderstorms, as it moves eastward on into the MS Valley on D4/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. The most significant moisture return is currently expected ahead of the second shortwave on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Thunderstorms are likely as the shortwave and associated cold front interact with this return moisture, although variability within the guidance of the strength and speed of this wave results in differing areas of highest thunderstorm coverage. Some severe appears possible, particularly if the wave is stronger and further south as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF. Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected in the extended, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs forecast to traverse the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series will likely be over the central Plains on D4/Saturday morning before then moving through the Mid MS Valley by late D4/Saturday and through the OH Valley on D5/Sunday. Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the first, progressing across the Great Basin and Four Corners on D5/Sunday and the southern/central Plains on D6/Monday. This wave may phase with another shortwave moving through central Canada, with resultant troughing extended from the Canadian Prairies into the southern Plains by D6/Monday afternoon. Yet another shortwave is currently progged to drop from the Pacific Northwest/northern CA into the Great Basin late D6/Monday. Guidance varies significantly on the evolution of this wave, and its strength/maturity and location currently have limited predictability. Moisture return is anticipated across the Plains ahead of each of these waves. Enough moisture and buoyancy should exist ahead of the first shortwave to support thunderstorms, as it moves eastward on into the MS Valley on D4/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. The most significant moisture return is currently expected ahead of the second shortwave on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Thunderstorms are likely as the shortwave and associated cold front interact with this return moisture, although variability within the guidance of the strength and speed of this wave results in differing areas of highest thunderstorm coverage. Some severe appears possible, particularly if the wave is stronger and further south as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF. Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected in the extended, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs forecast to traverse the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series will likely be over the central Plains on D4/Saturday morning before then moving through the Mid MS Valley by late D4/Saturday and through the OH Valley on D5/Sunday. Another shortwave is expected to follow in the wake of the first, progressing across the Great Basin and Four Corners on D5/Sunday and the southern/central Plains on D6/Monday. This wave may phase with another shortwave moving through central Canada, with resultant troughing extended from the Canadian Prairies into the southern Plains by D6/Monday afternoon. Yet another shortwave is currently progged to drop from the Pacific Northwest/northern CA into the Great Basin late D6/Monday. Guidance varies significantly on the evolution of this wave, and its strength/maturity and location currently have limited predictability. Moisture return is anticipated across the Plains ahead of each of these waves. Enough moisture and buoyancy should exist ahead of the first shortwave to support thunderstorms, as it moves eastward on into the MS Valley on D4/Saturday and through the remainder of the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. The most significant moisture return is currently expected ahead of the second shortwave on D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Thunderstorms are likely as the shortwave and associated cold front interact with this return moisture, although variability within the guidance of the strength and speed of this wave results in differing areas of highest thunderstorm coverage. Some severe appears possible, particularly if the wave is stronger and further south as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF. Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more