SPC MD 2260

7 months 3 weeks ago
MD 2260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of the central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111643Z - 111815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is rapidly approaching the FL Peninsula, preceded by a loosely organized QLCS. These storms are approaching a gradually destabilizing airmass, where surface temperatures are exceeding 80 F amid 70 F dewpoints (supporting 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). While deep-layer shear and some low-level shear also precedes the line, deep-layer ascent will continue to drift away from FL, so shear should gradually weaken through the day. However, a brief window of opportunity may exist for the buoyancy/shear parameter space to briefly coincide to support a couple of damaging gusts or a tornado with the stronger updrafts. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is unlikely. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27538263 29258190 29798153 29758127 29348096 28538062 27948052 27618066 26808114 26468147 26328187 26638220 27538263 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are negligible on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity will envelop much of the CONUS tomorrow. Two areas of sub-10 percent thunderstorm probabilities remain apparent. An Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. Downstream, lake-effect snow bands will persist with the most organized one expected in the lee of eastern Lake Ontario. A few lightning flashes are possible during the period of maximum snow rate intensity, seemingly from late afternoon into Thursday night. A couple elevated thunderstorms could develop over a portion of the Desert Southwest from southeast CA to the Lower CO Valley ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite strong forcing for ascent, buoyancy appears minimal with MUCAPE likely holding sub-100 J/kg. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Dec 11, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

7 months 3 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible from the eastern Carolinas to southern New England. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur southward into portions of Florida. ...Delmarva region into the Carolinas... A large and fast-moving upper trough is tracking across the TN Valley and Gulf Coast region today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping toward the East Coast. Low and mid level wind fields are very strong ahead of the front, with VAD observations and model guidance suggesting 50-70 knot southwesterly flow in the 1-2km layer throughout the area. This will lead to a conditional risk of damaging winds and tornadoes in organized thunderstorms that can develop. However, thermodynamics are quite weak, limiting overall confidence in the extent of severe activity later today. Morning CAM solutions continue to suggest the development of a fine-line of convection this afternoon along the front from the Delmarva region southward into the Carolinas. This appears to be the area of highest confidence in locally gusty/damaging thunderstorm winds and a tornado or two. ...Southern New England... Rapid surface cyclogenesis and intense low-level wind fields will result in some risk of damaging winds in the fast-moving showers that affect Southern New England this afternoon. Forecast soundings show very weak instability, suggesting that frontal activity may struggle to develop robust updrafts/lightning. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT due to the conditional risk, but confidence in the coverage of severe weather is not very high. ...FL... The southern end of the frontal band of convection will sweep across the FL Peninsula this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected to continue. This area will be farthest removed from the synoptic system, but will have better low level moisture/instability. A few strong storms are expected, capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/11/2024 Read more