Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible from the eastern Carolinas to southern New England. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed along the western portion of the outlook, and reduced along the southern New England coast. For both areas, widespread stratiform rain has limited destabilization and the overall severe threat. Farther south, severe probabilities were removed from the FL peninsula, as convection has decreased in strength and coverage owing to the front lagging south of the large-scale forcing for ascent. The main severe threat through the remainder of the afternoon will be associated with any line segments that can organize along the coastal Mid-Atlantic, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. For additional details, reference the latest mesoscale discussion (MCD #2261). ..Weinman.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Delmarva region into the Carolinas... A large and fast-moving upper trough is tracking across the TN Valley and Gulf Coast region today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping toward the East Coast. Low and mid level wind fields are very strong ahead of the front, with VAD observations and model guidance suggesting 50-70 knot southwesterly flow in the 1-2km layer throughout the area. This will lead to a conditional risk of damaging winds and tornadoes in organized thunderstorms that can develop. However, thermodynamics are quite weak, limiting overall confidence in the extent of severe activity later today. Morning CAM solutions continue to suggest the development of a fine-line of convection this afternoon along the front from the Delmarva region southward into the Carolinas. This appears to be the area of highest confidence in locally gusty/damaging thunderstorm winds and a tornado or two. ...Southern New England... Rapid surface cyclogenesis and intense low-level wind fields will result in some risk of damaging winds in the fast-moving showers that affect Southern New England this afternoon. Forecast soundings show very weak instability, suggesting that frontal activity may struggle to develop robust updrafts/lightning. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT due to the conditional risk, but confidence in the coverage of severe weather is not very high. ...FL... The southern end of the frontal band of convection will sweep across the FL Peninsula this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected to continue. This area will be farthest removed from the synoptic system, but will have better low level moisture/instability. A few strong storms are expected, capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible from the eastern Carolinas to southern New England. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed along the western portion of the outlook, and reduced along the southern New England coast. For both areas, widespread stratiform rain has limited destabilization and the overall severe threat. Farther south, severe probabilities were removed from the FL peninsula, as convection has decreased in strength and coverage owing to the front lagging south of the large-scale forcing for ascent. The main severe threat through the remainder of the afternoon will be associated with any line segments that can organize along the coastal Mid-Atlantic, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. For additional details, reference the latest mesoscale discussion (MCD #2261). ..Weinman.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Delmarva region into the Carolinas... A large and fast-moving upper trough is tracking across the TN Valley and Gulf Coast region today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping toward the East Coast. Low and mid level wind fields are very strong ahead of the front, with VAD observations and model guidance suggesting 50-70 knot southwesterly flow in the 1-2km layer throughout the area. This will lead to a conditional risk of damaging winds and tornadoes in organized thunderstorms that can develop. However, thermodynamics are quite weak, limiting overall confidence in the extent of severe activity later today. Morning CAM solutions continue to suggest the development of a fine-line of convection this afternoon along the front from the Delmarva region southward into the Carolinas. This appears to be the area of highest confidence in locally gusty/damaging thunderstorm winds and a tornado or two. ...Southern New England... Rapid surface cyclogenesis and intense low-level wind fields will result in some risk of damaging winds in the fast-moving showers that affect Southern New England this afternoon. Forecast soundings show very weak instability, suggesting that frontal activity may struggle to develop robust updrafts/lightning. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT due to the conditional risk, but confidence in the coverage of severe weather is not very high. ...FL... The southern end of the frontal band of convection will sweep across the FL Peninsula this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected to continue. This area will be farthest removed from the synoptic system, but will have better low level moisture/instability. A few strong storms are expected, capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible from the eastern Carolinas to southern New England. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed along the western portion of the outlook, and reduced along the southern New England coast. For both areas, widespread stratiform rain has limited destabilization and the overall severe threat. Farther south, severe probabilities were removed from the FL peninsula, as convection has decreased in strength and coverage owing to the front lagging south of the large-scale forcing for ascent. The main severe threat through the remainder of the afternoon will be associated with any line segments that can organize along the coastal Mid-Atlantic, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. For additional details, reference the latest mesoscale discussion (MCD #2261). ..Weinman.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Delmarva region into the Carolinas... A large and fast-moving upper trough is tracking across the TN Valley and Gulf Coast region today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping toward the East Coast. Low and mid level wind fields are very strong ahead of the front, with VAD observations and model guidance suggesting 50-70 knot southwesterly flow in the 1-2km layer throughout the area. This will lead to a conditional risk of damaging winds and tornadoes in organized thunderstorms that can develop. However, thermodynamics are quite weak, limiting overall confidence in the extent of severe activity later today. Morning CAM solutions continue to suggest the development of a fine-line of convection this afternoon along the front from the Delmarva region southward into the Carolinas. This appears to be the area of highest confidence in locally gusty/damaging thunderstorm winds and a tornado or two. ...Southern New England... Rapid surface cyclogenesis and intense low-level wind fields will result in some risk of damaging winds in the fast-moving showers that affect Southern New England this afternoon. Forecast soundings show very weak instability, suggesting that frontal activity may struggle to develop robust updrafts/lightning. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT due to the conditional risk, but confidence in the coverage of severe weather is not very high. ...FL... The southern end of the frontal band of convection will sweep across the FL Peninsula this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected to continue. This area will be farthest removed from the synoptic system, but will have better low level moisture/instability. A few strong storms are expected, capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible from the eastern Carolinas to southern New England. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed along the western portion of the outlook, and reduced along the southern New England coast. For both areas, widespread stratiform rain has limited destabilization and the overall severe threat. Farther south, severe probabilities were removed from the FL peninsula, as convection has decreased in strength and coverage owing to the front lagging south of the large-scale forcing for ascent. The main severe threat through the remainder of the afternoon will be associated with any line segments that can organize along the coastal Mid-Atlantic, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. For additional details, reference the latest mesoscale discussion (MCD #2261). ..Weinman.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Delmarva region into the Carolinas... A large and fast-moving upper trough is tracking across the TN Valley and Gulf Coast region today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping toward the East Coast. Low and mid level wind fields are very strong ahead of the front, with VAD observations and model guidance suggesting 50-70 knot southwesterly flow in the 1-2km layer throughout the area. This will lead to a conditional risk of damaging winds and tornadoes in organized thunderstorms that can develop. However, thermodynamics are quite weak, limiting overall confidence in the extent of severe activity later today. Morning CAM solutions continue to suggest the development of a fine-line of convection this afternoon along the front from the Delmarva region southward into the Carolinas. This appears to be the area of highest confidence in locally gusty/damaging thunderstorm winds and a tornado or two. ...Southern New England... Rapid surface cyclogenesis and intense low-level wind fields will result in some risk of damaging winds in the fast-moving showers that affect Southern New England this afternoon. Forecast soundings show very weak instability, suggesting that frontal activity may struggle to develop robust updrafts/lightning. Will maintain the ongoing SLGT due to the conditional risk, but confidence in the coverage of severe weather is not very high. ...FL... The southern end of the frontal band of convection will sweep across the FL Peninsula this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected to continue. This area will be farthest removed from the synoptic system, but will have better low level moisture/instability. A few strong storms are expected, capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024 Read more

MD 2261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 2261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Areas affected...The Coastal Carolinas into southeast Virginia and southeast Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111817Z - 111945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will increase this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. DISCUSSION...A weakly unstable environment (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) has spread across much of the eastern Carolinas and into far southeast Virginia where mid to upper 60s dewpoints are present. Strong ascent within strengthening tropospheric flow has kept widespread precipitation across much of the warm sector which has limited instability. Some weak line segments/bowing segments have developed across central North Carolina into southeast Virginia, but it has remained mostly sub-severe due to the weak instability. Additional line segments are trying to develop along the synoptic front, but are embedded within moderate rainfall with minimal instability at this time. As the synoptic front sharpens and strengthens more through the afternoon and starts to accelerate east, expect additional strengthening, perhaps with the front catching up to/combining with the ongoing line segments across central North Carolina. If/when this occurs is when the primary damaging wind/isolated tornado threat is expected this afternoon given the very strong tropospheric flow (65 knots at 1km and over 100 knots at 7km per RAX VWP). Trends will be monitored through the afternoon and if a better organized, eastward accelerating convective line becomes more apparent this afternoon, a watch may be needed. ..Bentley/Hart.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 32547986 32158040 32308070 32728072 34487967 36127832 37457705 38267596 38337536 38257499 36977584 36497576 36007549 35597535 35197545 35087579 34797628 34517651 34637679 34567709 34367752 34067780 33777791 33827817 33797854 33577885 33347905 33107915 32547986 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more