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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning is possible this evening and tonight along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in association with lake-effect snow bands. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. See the previous discussion below for details regarding isolated lightning potential downwind of Lake Ontario. ..Weinman.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...NY... Cool/dry and stable conditions will prevail over the most of the CONUS today, with no organized thunderstorm activity expected. One exception will be in the vicinity of the eastern shores of Lake Ontario (Jefferson/Lewis/Oswego counties). A long-fetch lake-effect snow band is forecast to develop later this evening and tonight. Forecast soundings suggest a sufficiently deep convective layer to promote charge separation and a few lightning strikes - mainly after 02z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning is possible this evening and tonight along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in association with lake-effect snow bands. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. See the previous discussion below for details regarding isolated lightning potential downwind of Lake Ontario. ..Weinman.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...NY... Cool/dry and stable conditions will prevail over the most of the CONUS today, with no organized thunderstorm activity expected. One exception will be in the vicinity of the eastern shores of Lake Ontario (Jefferson/Lewis/Oswego counties). A long-fetch lake-effect snow band is forecast to develop later this evening and tonight. Forecast soundings suggest a sufficiently deep convective layer to promote charge separation and a few lightning strikes - mainly after 02z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning is possible this evening and tonight along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in association with lake-effect snow bands. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. See the previous discussion below for details regarding isolated lightning potential downwind of Lake Ontario. ..Weinman.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...NY... Cool/dry and stable conditions will prevail over the most of the CONUS today, with no organized thunderstorm activity expected. One exception will be in the vicinity of the eastern shores of Lake Ontario (Jefferson/Lewis/Oswego counties). A long-fetch lake-effect snow band is forecast to develop later this evening and tonight. Forecast soundings suggest a sufficiently deep convective layer to promote charge separation and a few lightning strikes - mainly after 02z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning is possible this evening and tonight along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in association with lake-effect snow bands. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. See the previous discussion below for details regarding isolated lightning potential downwind of Lake Ontario. ..Weinman.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...NY... Cool/dry and stable conditions will prevail over the most of the CONUS today, with no organized thunderstorm activity expected. One exception will be in the vicinity of the eastern shores of Lake Ontario (Jefferson/Lewis/Oswego counties). A long-fetch lake-effect snow band is forecast to develop later this evening and tonight. Forecast soundings suggest a sufficiently deep convective layer to promote charge separation and a few lightning strikes - mainly after 02z. Read more

MD 2262 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NY/EXTREME NORTHWEST PA DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE
Mesoscale Discussion 2262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Areas affected...Parts of western NY/extreme northwest PA downstream of Lake Erie Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 121539Z - 121845Z SUMMARY...Very heavy snow rates will continue in the short term, with some weakening possible by early afternoon. DISCUSSION...An intense lake-effect snow band is ongoing this morning across parts of western NY and extreme northwest PA, downstream of Lake Erie. Recent reports suggest snow rates in excess of 3 inches per hour in the heaviest part of the band, with one report of 12 inches over a 2 hour span in Erie County, NY. These very heavy snow rates will persist in some areas through the remainder of the morning. In addition, wind gusts of 30-45 kt have been noted across the region this morning, resulting in occasional blizzard conditions. A notable shortwave trough embedded in deep cyclonic flow is currently moving east of Lake Huron and approaching the lower Great Lakes region. Low-level flow response to this shortwave could result in some disruption of the ongoing snow band by early afternoon, and short-term guidance (including the 12Z CAMs) generally suggest the band will tend to drift south and at least temporarily weaken by early afternoon. ..Dean.. 12/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE... LAT...LON 42227920 42117968 41998025 42058034 42178032 42278001 42427966 42867843 42907805 42687814 42367878 42227920 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in conjunction with timing of forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should yield a pronounced increase in elevated convection Friday night into early morning Saturday from the Red River Valley towards the Lower MO Valley. Steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined to the north side of the mid-level jet in OK to eastern KS. Weak mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km) will curtail elevated buoyancy where low-level moisture progressively increases with southern extent. Still, favorable veering of the wind profile with height could yield transient, weak mid-level updraft rotation across parts of east TX to the southern Ozarks. Small hail may occur within the deepest updrafts, with large hail probabilities appearing to be sub-5 percent. ...Northern CA... A pair of shortwave troughs in the northeast Pacific will approach the West Coast. The southern one of these should remain offshore of the northern CA coast through 12Z Saturday. The downstream low-level warm conveyor will yield a swath of rain ahead of a weak cold front. Sufficient low-level moistening, along with some mid-level cooling with the approaching trough, may support scant buoyancy by 09-12Z. Overall thunderstorm probabilities early Saturday morning appear to be around 10 percent near a portion of the northern CA coast. ..Grams.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in conjunction with timing of forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should yield a pronounced increase in elevated convection Friday night into early morning Saturday from the Red River Valley towards the Lower MO Valley. Steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined to the north side of the mid-level jet in OK to eastern KS. Weak mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km) will curtail elevated buoyancy where low-level moisture progressively increases with southern extent. Still, favorable veering of the wind profile with height could yield transient, weak mid-level updraft rotation across parts of east TX to the southern Ozarks. Small hail may occur within the deepest updrafts, with large hail probabilities appearing to be sub-5 percent. ...Northern CA... A pair of shortwave troughs in the northeast Pacific will approach the West Coast. The southern one of these should remain offshore of the northern CA coast through 12Z Saturday. The downstream low-level warm conveyor will yield a swath of rain ahead of a weak cold front. Sufficient low-level moistening, along with some mid-level cooling with the approaching trough, may support scant buoyancy by 09-12Z. Overall thunderstorm probabilities early Saturday morning appear to be around 10 percent near a portion of the northern CA coast. ..Grams.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in conjunction with timing of forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should yield a pronounced increase in elevated convection Friday night into early morning Saturday from the Red River Valley towards the Lower MO Valley. Steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined to the north side of the mid-level jet in OK to eastern KS. Weak mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km) will curtail elevated buoyancy where low-level moisture progressively increases with southern extent. Still, favorable veering of the wind profile with height could yield transient, weak mid-level updraft rotation across parts of east TX to the southern Ozarks. Small hail may occur within the deepest updrafts, with large hail probabilities appearing to be sub-5 percent. ...Northern CA... A pair of shortwave troughs in the northeast Pacific will approach the West Coast. The southern one of these should remain offshore of the northern CA coast through 12Z Saturday. The downstream low-level warm conveyor will yield a swath of rain ahead of a weak cold front. Sufficient low-level moistening, along with some mid-level cooling with the approaching trough, may support scant buoyancy by 09-12Z. Overall thunderstorm probabilities early Saturday morning appear to be around 10 percent near a portion of the northern CA coast. ..Grams.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in conjunction with timing of forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should yield a pronounced increase in elevated convection Friday night into early morning Saturday from the Red River Valley towards the Lower MO Valley. Steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined to the north side of the mid-level jet in OK to eastern KS. Weak mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km) will curtail elevated buoyancy where low-level moisture progressively increases with southern extent. Still, favorable veering of the wind profile with height could yield transient, weak mid-level updraft rotation across parts of east TX to the southern Ozarks. Small hail may occur within the deepest updrafts, with large hail probabilities appearing to be sub-5 percent. ...Northern CA... A pair of shortwave troughs in the northeast Pacific will approach the West Coast. The southern one of these should remain offshore of the northern CA coast through 12Z Saturday. The downstream low-level warm conveyor will yield a swath of rain ahead of a weak cold front. Sufficient low-level moistening, along with some mid-level cooling with the approaching trough, may support scant buoyancy by 09-12Z. Overall thunderstorm probabilities early Saturday morning appear to be around 10 percent near a portion of the northern CA coast. ..Grams.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in conjunction with timing of forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should yield a pronounced increase in elevated convection Friday night into early morning Saturday from the Red River Valley towards the Lower MO Valley. Steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined to the north side of the mid-level jet in OK to eastern KS. Weak mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km) will curtail elevated buoyancy where low-level moisture progressively increases with southern extent. Still, favorable veering of the wind profile with height could yield transient, weak mid-level updraft rotation across parts of east TX to the southern Ozarks. Small hail may occur within the deepest updrafts, with large hail probabilities appearing to be sub-5 percent. ...Northern CA... A pair of shortwave troughs in the northeast Pacific will approach the West Coast. The southern one of these should remain offshore of the northern CA coast through 12Z Saturday. The downstream low-level warm conveyor will yield a swath of rain ahead of a weak cold front. Sufficient low-level moistening, along with some mid-level cooling with the approaching trough, may support scant buoyancy by 09-12Z. Overall thunderstorm probabilities early Saturday morning appear to be around 10 percent near a portion of the northern CA coast. ..Grams.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in conjunction with timing of forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should yield a pronounced increase in elevated convection Friday night into early morning Saturday from the Red River Valley towards the Lower MO Valley. Steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined to the north side of the mid-level jet in OK to eastern KS. Weak mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km) will curtail elevated buoyancy where low-level moisture progressively increases with southern extent. Still, favorable veering of the wind profile with height could yield transient, weak mid-level updraft rotation across parts of east TX to the southern Ozarks. Small hail may occur within the deepest updrafts, with large hail probabilities appearing to be sub-5 percent. ...Northern CA... A pair of shortwave troughs in the northeast Pacific will approach the West Coast. The southern one of these should remain offshore of the northern CA coast through 12Z Saturday. The downstream low-level warm conveyor will yield a swath of rain ahead of a weak cold front. Sufficient low-level moistening, along with some mid-level cooling with the approaching trough, may support scant buoyancy by 09-12Z. Overall thunderstorm probabilities early Saturday morning appear to be around 10 percent near a portion of the northern CA coast. ..Grams.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Central States... A shortwave trough near the Four Corners will move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by early Saturday. The attendant lee surface cyclone will be weak as it tracks from the Raton Mesa vicinity into eastern KS. Modified moisture return from the western Gulf is anticipated within the broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of the minor cyclone. Adequate buoyancy in conjunction with timing of forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should yield a pronounced increase in elevated convection Friday night into early morning Saturday from the Red River Valley towards the Lower MO Valley. Steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined to the north side of the mid-level jet in OK to eastern KS. Weak mid-level lapse rates (around 6 C/km) will curtail elevated buoyancy where low-level moisture progressively increases with southern extent. Still, favorable veering of the wind profile with height could yield transient, weak mid-level updraft rotation across parts of east TX to the southern Ozarks. Small hail may occur within the deepest updrafts, with large hail probabilities appearing to be sub-5 percent. ...Northern CA... A pair of shortwave troughs in the northeast Pacific will approach the West Coast. The southern one of these should remain offshore of the northern CA coast through 12Z Saturday. The downstream low-level warm conveyor will yield a swath of rain ahead of a weak cold front. Sufficient low-level moistening, along with some mid-level cooling with the approaching trough, may support scant buoyancy by 09-12Z. Overall thunderstorm probabilities early Saturday morning appear to be around 10 percent near a portion of the northern CA coast. ..Grams.. 12/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the southern Plains and Southwest this afternoon; however, relatively moist fuel conditions continue to limit the overall fire threat. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a slowly de-amplifying ridge from the southern Rockies into western Canada with shortwave troughs approaching the Pacific Northwest and Baja California. These upper waves will drive fire weather concerns for the next two days as they migrate east into the Southwest and southern Plains. ...Central TX into OK... A modest, southerly, dry return-flow regime is becoming established over the southern Plains as a surface high over the lower MS River Valley gradually shifts east. Additionally, a weak lee cyclone is noted in surface observations across eastern CO. Over the next 12-24 hours, the low-amplitude upper wave approaching Baja California will overspread the southern Rockies, resulting in a gradual intensification of the lee cyclone. As a result, southerly winds should increase to 15-20 mph across central TX into southern and central OK. The recent deep frontal intrusion across the Gulf will limit moisture recovery with RH minimums around 20% expected this afternoon. While elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions are possible, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs are well below the 50th percentile. Consequently, fire concerns should remain limited to primarily finer fuel beds that may see sufficient drying by late afternoon to support fire spread. ...Arizona... 06 UTC surface observations show very dry conditions across southern CA into southern AZ with RH values in the single digits to low teens. This dry air mass will spread north through the day as surface pressure falls across NV/UT in response to the approach of the upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast. Afternoon RH minimums in the single digits are anticipated, and may coincide with 15 mph winds - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim. However, as with the southern Plains, ERC guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive at this time, which precludes highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lightning is possible this evening and tonight along the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in association with lake-effect snow bands. ...NY... Cool/dry and stable conditions will prevail over the most of the CONUS today, with no organized thunderstorm activity expected. One exception will be in the vicinity of the eastern shores of Lake Ontario (Jefferson/Lewis/Oswego counties). A long-fetch lake-effect snow band is forecast to develop later this evening and tonight. Forecast soundings suggest a sufficiently deep convective layer to promote charge separation and a few lightning strikes - mainly after 02z. ..Hart.. 12/12/2024 Read more