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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may affect portions of east-central Alabama into west-central Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was to trim the western portion of severe probabilities, where the convective line and related wind shift has progressed eastward. Ahead of the line, latest radar data has shown brief/transient circulations over southeast AL, where low-level hodograph curvature is slightly more pronounced (beneath the core of a mesoscale LLJ) amid a warm/moist air mass. Current indications are that the greatest severe risk will be associated with this activity (and any additional development) from east-central AL into west-central GA through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. ..Weinman.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...AL/GA... The subtropical jet extends across the Gulf Coast region today, with several subtle shortwave troughs suggested in water vapor imagery that will affect parts of FL/AL/GA. Ample low-level moisture is present across central/southern AL/GA with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s - yielding MUCAPE around 500 J/kg. Several 12z CAM solutions indicate a mesoscale low-level jet max that will intensify ahead of the cluster of showers/thunderstorms over west-central AL. This will lead to enhanced low-level vertical shear and forcing, providing support for a few supercell/bowing storm structures and the risk of a tornado or two and damaging wind gusts. Given these trends, have opted to upgrade this corridor to SLGT. Refer to MCD #2256 for further short-term details. ...Carolinas... Late tonight, the rapidly amplifying upper jet over the TN valley will lead to an organizing band of showers and low-topped thunderstorms along the cold front over SC/NC. It still looks like the main intensification of this line will occur after 12z, so will not expand the MRGL risk farther east. However, this area will continue to be re-evaluated in later outlooks. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may affect portions of east-central Alabama into west-central Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was to trim the western portion of severe probabilities, where the convective line and related wind shift has progressed eastward. Ahead of the line, latest radar data has shown brief/transient circulations over southeast AL, where low-level hodograph curvature is slightly more pronounced (beneath the core of a mesoscale LLJ) amid a warm/moist air mass. Current indications are that the greatest severe risk will be associated with this activity (and any additional development) from east-central AL into west-central GA through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. ..Weinman.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...AL/GA... The subtropical jet extends across the Gulf Coast region today, with several subtle shortwave troughs suggested in water vapor imagery that will affect parts of FL/AL/GA. Ample low-level moisture is present across central/southern AL/GA with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s - yielding MUCAPE around 500 J/kg. Several 12z CAM solutions indicate a mesoscale low-level jet max that will intensify ahead of the cluster of showers/thunderstorms over west-central AL. This will lead to enhanced low-level vertical shear and forcing, providing support for a few supercell/bowing storm structures and the risk of a tornado or two and damaging wind gusts. Given these trends, have opted to upgrade this corridor to SLGT. Refer to MCD #2256 for further short-term details. ...Carolinas... Late tonight, the rapidly amplifying upper jet over the TN valley will lead to an organizing band of showers and low-topped thunderstorms along the cold front over SC/NC. It still looks like the main intensification of this line will occur after 12z, so will not expand the MRGL risk farther east. However, this area will continue to be re-evaluated in later outlooks. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may affect portions of east-central Alabama into west-central Georgia through this evening. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was to trim the western portion of severe probabilities, where the convective line and related wind shift has progressed eastward. Ahead of the line, latest radar data has shown brief/transient circulations over southeast AL, where low-level hodograph curvature is slightly more pronounced (beneath the core of a mesoscale LLJ) amid a warm/moist air mass. Current indications are that the greatest severe risk will be associated with this activity (and any additional development) from east-central AL into west-central GA through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. ..Weinman.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...AL/GA... The subtropical jet extends across the Gulf Coast region today, with several subtle shortwave troughs suggested in water vapor imagery that will affect parts of FL/AL/GA. Ample low-level moisture is present across central/southern AL/GA with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s - yielding MUCAPE around 500 J/kg. Several 12z CAM solutions indicate a mesoscale low-level jet max that will intensify ahead of the cluster of showers/thunderstorms over west-central AL. This will lead to enhanced low-level vertical shear and forcing, providing support for a few supercell/bowing storm structures and the risk of a tornado or two and damaging wind gusts. Given these trends, have opted to upgrade this corridor to SLGT. Refer to MCD #2256 for further short-term details. ...Carolinas... Late tonight, the rapidly amplifying upper jet over the TN valley will lead to an organizing band of showers and low-topped thunderstorms along the cold front over SC/NC. It still looks like the main intensification of this line will occur after 12z, so will not expand the MRGL risk farther east. However, this area will continue to be re-evaluated in later outlooks. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor changes were made to the D2 Elevated area to extend areas to the coastline in Ventura/Los Angeles county. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor changes were made to the D2 Elevated area to extend areas to the coastline in Ventura/Los Angeles county. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor changes were made to the D2 Elevated area to extend areas to the coastline in Ventura/Los Angeles county. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor changes were made to the D2 Elevated area to extend areas to the coastline in Ventura/Los Angeles county. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor changes were made to the D2 Elevated area to extend areas to the coastline in Ventura/Los Angeles county. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor changes were made to the D2 Elevated area to extend areas to the coastline in Ventura/Los Angeles county. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor changes were made to the D2 Elevated area to extend areas to the coastline in Ventura/Los Angeles county. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Wednesday along the southern CA coast as an ongoing offshore wind event begins to wane. This event is expected to peak in intensity this morning (Tuesday) before gradually abating through the late afternoon and overnight hours. Critical (20+ mph) wind speeds will likely be ongoing within the coastal mountains by 12 UTC Wednesday, but winds are expected to weaken steadily through the day as the surface high over the Great Basin shifts southeast into the Four Corners/southern High Plains. Regardless, overnight RH recovery will be minimal due to the long-duration nature of the offshore wind event heading into Wednesday morning, which will promote several hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions (most likely through 18 UTC). By late Wednesday afternoon, 15-25 mph winds should be confined to typically breezy locations within the higher terrain, though widespread 5-15% RH values should persist, given increasing subsidence and diurnal heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modified moisture return will commence across the western Gulf Coast, well downstream of the next shortwave trough progressing into the Great Basin vicinity. Conditions appear too stable for thunderstorms with this wave through 12Z Friday. ..Grams.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modified moisture return will commence across the western Gulf Coast, well downstream of the next shortwave trough progressing into the Great Basin vicinity. Conditions appear too stable for thunderstorms with this wave through 12Z Friday. ..Grams.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modified moisture return will commence across the western Gulf Coast, well downstream of the next shortwave trough progressing into the Great Basin vicinity. Conditions appear too stable for thunderstorms with this wave through 12Z Friday. ..Grams.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modified moisture return will commence across the western Gulf Coast, well downstream of the next shortwave trough progressing into the Great Basin vicinity. Conditions appear too stable for thunderstorms with this wave through 12Z Friday. ..Grams.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modified moisture return will commence across the western Gulf Coast, well downstream of the next shortwave trough progressing into the Great Basin vicinity. Conditions appear too stable for thunderstorms with this wave through 12Z Friday. ..Grams.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modified moisture return will commence across the western Gulf Coast, well downstream of the next shortwave trough progressing into the Great Basin vicinity. Conditions appear too stable for thunderstorms with this wave through 12Z Friday. ..Grams.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... A quiescent synoptic pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected on Thursday. In the wake of a cold front pushing offshore of the entire East Coast on D2, an Arctic air mass will settle into the Upper Great Lakes. A couple lightning flashes are possible in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands immediately downstream of the Lower Great Lakes, but probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. Otherwise, modified moisture return will commence across the western Gulf Coast, well downstream of the next shortwave trough progressing into the Great Basin vicinity. Conditions appear too stable for thunderstorms with this wave through 12Z Friday. ..Grams.. 12/10/2024 Read more

Dry conditions have allowed a few wildfires to spark in the western part of North Carolina. In McDowell County, a blaze burned 518 acres and was 75% contained, and a 730-acre wildfire was 92% contained in Gaston County. WNCN-TV NBC 17 (Raleigh, N.C.), Dec 9, 2024

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN NC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across many of the East Coast States. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds is centered on eastern North Carolina during Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will extend from south-central Canada to the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning. A vigorous shortwave impulse embedded within the basal portion of the trough will rapidly advance into the Mid-Atlantic States by early evening and pivot north to the St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday night. This will yield an increasingly negative tilt to the broad trough, with associated intensification of deep-layer flow fields and surface cyclogenesis. ...Eastern NC vicinity... A plume of mid 60s surface dew points are expected to advect north across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA by Wednesday afternoon. Boundary-layer destabilization should be tempered by preceding weak convection within the warm conveyor and pervasive cloudiness limiting insolation. Still, consensus of guidance suggests the relatively warmest surface temperatures should occur across eastern NC. Amid weak lapse rates, buoyancy should remain meager to around 500 J/kg along the coast. Even so, favorable timing of the synoptic evolution with respect to the diurnal heating cycle should yield a strongly forced convective line along the progressive cold front. Some guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms might separately develop in low-level confluence over coastal NC and the Outer Banks. At least a few embedded supercells are plausible, yielding a tornado and wind threat. The progressive nature of the front suggests the tornado threat may be more sporadic with shorter-lived circulations embedded in the line until it shifts offshore. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coasts... Deep convection should be ongoing across parts of the FL Panhandle into south GA at 12Z Wednesday. Despite the time of day, the northern periphery of rich eastern Gulf moisture in conjunction with enhanced low-level hodograph curvature will support a localized tornado/wind threat through midday. Some potential may persist into the afternoon over parts of the north/central FL Peninsula but low-level winds will become more veered with time as the shortwave trough rapidly advances away from this region. The northern extent of the threat into GA/SC will be predicated on the degree of surface-based destabilization, which appears to be a relative min in the Southeast. ...Northeast... Primary thunderstorm activity should be in the form of sporadic lightning flashes amid scant elevated buoyancy within the low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance does suggest a low-topped convective line may develop along the eastward-surging cold front during the afternoon/evening. Surface-based instability may remain negligible and lightning production appears unlikely. But with intensifying wind fields, potential remains for strong surface gusts capable of tree damage. ..Grams.. 12/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN NC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across many of the East Coast States. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds is centered on eastern North Carolina during Wednesday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will extend from south-central Canada to the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday morning. A vigorous shortwave impulse embedded within the basal portion of the trough will rapidly advance into the Mid-Atlantic States by early evening and pivot north to the St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday night. This will yield an increasingly negative tilt to the broad trough, with associated intensification of deep-layer flow fields and surface cyclogenesis. ...Eastern NC vicinity... A plume of mid 60s surface dew points are expected to advect north across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA by Wednesday afternoon. Boundary-layer destabilization should be tempered by preceding weak convection within the warm conveyor and pervasive cloudiness limiting insolation. Still, consensus of guidance suggests the relatively warmest surface temperatures should occur across eastern NC. Amid weak lapse rates, buoyancy should remain meager to around 500 J/kg along the coast. Even so, favorable timing of the synoptic evolution with respect to the diurnal heating cycle should yield a strongly forced convective line along the progressive cold front. Some guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms might separately develop in low-level confluence over coastal NC and the Outer Banks. At least a few embedded supercells are plausible, yielding a tornado and wind threat. The progressive nature of the front suggests the tornado threat may be more sporadic with shorter-lived circulations embedded in the line until it shifts offshore. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coasts... Deep convection should be ongoing across parts of the FL Panhandle into south GA at 12Z Wednesday. Despite the time of day, the northern periphery of rich eastern Gulf moisture in conjunction with enhanced low-level hodograph curvature will support a localized tornado/wind threat through midday. Some potential may persist into the afternoon over parts of the north/central FL Peninsula but low-level winds will become more veered with time as the shortwave trough rapidly advances away from this region. The northern extent of the threat into GA/SC will be predicated on the degree of surface-based destabilization, which appears to be a relative min in the Southeast. ...Northeast... Primary thunderstorm activity should be in the form of sporadic lightning flashes amid scant elevated buoyancy within the low-level warm conveyor. Some CAM guidance does suggest a low-topped convective line may develop along the eastward-surging cold front during the afternoon/evening. Surface-based instability may remain negligible and lightning production appears unlikely. But with intensifying wind fields, potential remains for strong surface gusts capable of tree damage. ..Grams.. 12/10/2024 Read more