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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Surface high pressure with cold offshore flow will continue over much of the CONUS through the remainder of today and tonight. This will end the thunderstorm threat across parts of the Gulf Coast as the meager remaining buoyancy is forced offshore. Isolated, mostly elevated, storms will still remain possible over parts of West TX and NM tonight. However, very weak buoyancy will negate any severe threat. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more