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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will amplify and transition from positively tilted across the Southwest Tuesday morning to negatively tilted by early Wednesday morning across the Mississippi Valley. Persistent weak southerly flow will maintain mid 60s dewpoints across the Southeast within a broad warm-air advection regime. Extensive cloudcover and ongoing convection will likely limit destabilization, but sufficient moisture and the cooling temperatures aloft may allow for some weak instability to develop. Some CAM guidance such as the HRRR suggests greater heating is possible with temperatures in the mid 70s and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in some pockets. If this greater instability solution were to verify, a slightly greater severe weather threat may materialize given the favorable shear with lengthening hodographs through the day. However, at this time, expect minimal instability inland due to the widespread convection and cloudcover. A few rotating storms/bowing segments with the threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threat. ...Outerbanks... As the primary trough starts to become negatively tilted around 12Z Wednesday, a surface low is expected to become better pronounced and start to deepen across the Appalachians. As this occurs, low-level flow will strengthen and back which will allow better moisture to advect inland across the eastern Carolinas. Sufficient instability is possible across the eastern Carolinas for some supercell potential. However, at this time CAMS are not clear whether a confluence band will form in this region and if it will be inland if it does develop. If a confluence band does develop and can move inland, supercells will be possible with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, given the wind profile and moderate instability forecast. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Though morning surface and satellite observations show the marine layer is in place across much of the coastal areas/valleys within the current Elevated and Critical risk areas, this is expected to mix out through the afternoon as offshore flow increases. Conditions will worsen through late Monday afternoon before peaking early on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Southern CA Coast... High-end critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop later this afternoon and into the overnight hours along the southern CA coast. Latest surface observations show a 1027 mb surface high building across the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest. This feature is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours to around 1036-1038 mb as it shifts into northeast NV in the wake of an amplifying upper trough. This unseasonably strong surface high (90th percentile for mid-December) will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Although relatively moist and quiescent conditions are noted along the southern CA coast in 06 UTC observations, offshore winds are forecast to increase by mid-afternoon and may gust as high as 45-60 mph by late tonight as the LAX-DAG pressure gradient strengthens to -6 to -8 mb. Warm/dry low to mid-level air was sampled above a shallow marine layer in the NKX and VGB 00 UTC soundings, suggesting that RH values will quickly fall as downslope warming/drying increases through the afternoon/overnight. Latest high-res forecast guidance suggests that RH values may fall as low as 5-15% within the higher coastal terrain. As such, critical conditions are expected with pockets of extremely critical conditions possible, especially towards 12 UTC Tuesday. ...Southwest Texas... Elevated fire weather conditions are probable this afternoon across southwest, to perhaps central, TX as a weak surface low begins to consolidate over the central southern Plains. Westerly flow on the southwestern periphery of this low should maintain low-level trajectories emanating out of southern NM/northern Mexico where dewpoints are in the low to mid 20s. While not unusually dry for mid-December, ample heating of this air mass ahead of an approaching cold front should promote RH reductions into the teens by late afternoon with wind speeds around 15 mph. While elevated conditions are probable, fuels likely remain unreceptive based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more