Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 13 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1665 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1665 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...far northeastern Nebraska...eastern South Dakota...southwestern Minnesota...northeastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132247Z - 140045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated risk for damaging wind and large hail with storms through the evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed as weak forcing for ascent has overspread a cold front/stationary front extending from Nebraska into central Minnesota. The air mass ahead of the boundary is moist and very unstable, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s. Deep layer shear around 30 kts and steep low-level lapse rates will be sufficient for a few organized cells to pose a risk for damaging wind and large hail. Overall, guidance suggests storm coverage will remain fairly isolated amid weak upper forcing and warmer mid-level temperatures. As such, the isolated nature of the threat will preclude watch issuance. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 45779370 44709358 43489529 42809648 42339727 42649854 44499764 45409675 45949593 46309516 46209424 45779370 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1663 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1663 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132038Z - 132315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and into the evening, posing a severe wind risk. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated over the high terrain this afternoon across the region. While moisture is meager for this time of year, it is sufficient to support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and robust updrafts. The 18Z Tucson sounding represents the characteristic well-mixed, inverted-V sounding profiles across the region. Certainly, this environment will support dry-microburst potential for the strongest storms. With northeasterly midlevel flow expected to increase this afternoon and evening, a more organized wind threat could develop and move south-southwestward off the higher terrain. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of watch issuance. ..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33980977 33830876 33570786 33230767 32500760 32060779 31780818 31430855 31340940 31361050 31461089 31861121 32191135 32561134 33451099 33980977 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1664 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHWEST LA...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1664 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east TX into far southeast OK...northwest LA...southwest/central AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132041Z - 132245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms with locally damaging winds are possible through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity has been noted within a very moist and strongly buoyant environment across east-central TX, along a composite outflow to the east of a well-defined MCV over central TX. Deep-layer shear is relatively weak, but modest southwesterly low/midlevel flow attendant to the MCV and further outflow consolidation could result in a northeastward-moving storm cluster that will move toward the ArkLaTex region through the remainder of the afternoon. Such a cluster could be accompanied by isolated damaging winds. Additional storm development will be possible ahead of this developing cluster into northeast TX and southwest AR, which may also be capable of producing localized downbursts. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32119631 33659486 35089343 35329273 35449237 35119174 34389171 33619266 32239336 30479418 30219468 30149530 30119573 30119599 30089649 30399638 31279615 32119631 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... A mid-level wave translating eastward through the Northern Rockies will bring widespread and impactful fire weather threats to portions of the West. Breezy winds and low relative humidity will be prevalent across the Snake River Plain, interior southern CA and especially the Great Basin where a 70 percent critical probabilities were introduced into eastern NV/western UT. A dry boundary layer in place coupled with enhanced mid-level flow will support surface winds of 15-25 mph and low relative humidity over dry fuels. Increasing mid-level monsoon moisture over the Great Basin and Intermountain West with at least some upper-level support from the passing trough to the north will provide for faster moving showers and thunderstorms with limited rainfall across central/northeast NV, much of UT and into the Four Corners area. Receptive fuels will promote lightning ignitions with 10 percent probability of dry thunderstorms introduced for Day 3/Tuesday. ...Day 4/Wednesday... Residual breezy and dry conditions across southern NV/southwestern UT will bring a continued fire weather threat to the area on Day 4/Wednesday. A few high-based thunderstorms are expected across the higher terrain in eastern NV and much of UT but higher thunderstorm coverage will be along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Higher forecast confidence exists for a mid-level low over Baja California to move into southern CA by the end of the week. This will aid in the northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture, with precipitable water values in the 0.7-1.0 inch range, into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West through the weekend. A broad area of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely across much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Farther northwest, another upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest could reintroduce a fire weather threat for interior WA/OR for the weekend where rainfall deficits and dry fuels persist, particularly across the Columbia Basin. Some uncertainty in timing of the trough precludes introductions of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1661 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1661 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...eastern Florida peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131914Z - 132145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing and moving southward through the afternoon posing an isolated damaging wind threat. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along the eastern peninsula of Florida in a very moist and unstable environment. While the deep-layer flow/shear is weak (per XMR 15Z sounding), there does appear to be enhanced north-northwesterly low-level flow likely associated with the midlevel low off the east coast of Florida. As a result, 0-3 km northerly shear is around 20 knots (per MLB VWP), which is at least modestly supportive of southward-propagating clusters capable of producing severe, damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. The localized, isolated nature of the threat will preclude watch issuance. ..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX... LAT...LON 27188072 27988127 28728176 29518220 30008236 30348178 30398133 30078116 29118082 28618055 28138042 27338026 27148019 27188072 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1662 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VA...CENTRAL MD...THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1662 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern VA...central MD...the eastern WV Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131941Z - 132115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind remains possible through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Earlier convection across MD and eastern VA has generated a westward-moving outflow approaching central VA. Meanwhile, other storms have developed this afternoon along/east of the Blue Ridge. Deep-layer flow is quite weak across the region, resulting in generally disorganized storms. However, strong heating of a very moist airmass (PW around 2 inches) has resulted in MLCAPE increasing above 3000 J/kg in areas outside of convective outflow. The large PW and favorable buoyancy will support a threat of localized wet microbursts, both with storms along the westward-moving outflow, and the storms moving slowly eastward off of the Blue Ridge. Outflow collisions may result in brief upticks in storm intensity through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37087924 37287915 38457862 39607818 39677813 39657761 39627756 38717763 37807778 37437785 36807772 36917839 36877871 36787934 37087924 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1660 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...KENTUCKY...AND INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1660 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...southern Illinois and adjacent portions of Missouri...Kentucky...and Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131818Z - 132045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across the region. An isolated severe weather threat may materialize, but a watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Surface-based instability is increasing ahead of a convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough. Insolation in a very moist environment (2-m Td in the low-to-mid 70s F) has eliminated MLCIN, resulting in convective initiation and increasing storm coverage and intensity. Enhanced midlevel flow, especially with northward extent (around 30 knots per ILX VWP), coupled with 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE may lead to some storm organization into multicell clusters, posing a primary threat of damaging winds. A tornado cannot be ruled out given localized pockets of enhanced vertical vorticity with multiple MCVs in the area, but the threat will likely remain isolated and brief. Given the isolated nature of the expected severe weather threat, a watch is unlikely. ..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... LAT...LON 36599043 37259016 38198991 38698976 39209009 39578978 39668873 39518791 38748714 38048707 37208726 36608813 36188901 36109004 36599043 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more