Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will be the main influence across the western US today, keeping winds mostly light outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. The driest fuels remain across portions of the Pacific Northwest in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. Remaining mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorm development in these regions Friday afternoon. Uncertainty over coverage where fuels are receptive remains, precluding inclusion of any areas at this time. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Idaho Panhandle into the northern Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will be the main influence across the western US today, keeping winds mostly light outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. The driest fuels remain across portions of the Pacific Northwest in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. Remaining mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorm development in these regions Friday afternoon. Uncertainty over coverage where fuels are receptive remains, precluding inclusion of any areas at this time. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Idaho Panhandle into the northern Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will be the main influence across the western US today, keeping winds mostly light outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. The driest fuels remain across portions of the Pacific Northwest in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. Remaining mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorm development in these regions Friday afternoon. Uncertainty over coverage where fuels are receptive remains, precluding inclusion of any areas at this time. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Idaho Panhandle into the northern Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will be the main influence across the western US today, keeping winds mostly light outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. The driest fuels remain across portions of the Pacific Northwest in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. Remaining mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorm development in these regions Friday afternoon. Uncertainty over coverage where fuels are receptive remains, precluding inclusion of any areas at this time. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Idaho Panhandle into the northern Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will be the main influence across the western US today, keeping winds mostly light outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. The driest fuels remain across portions of the Pacific Northwest in the Washington/Oregon Cascades. Remaining mid-level moisture combined with daytime heating may support isolated thunderstorm development in these regions Friday afternoon. Uncertainty over coverage where fuels are receptive remains, precluding inclusion of any areas at this time. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Idaho Panhandle into the northern Washington. ..Thornton.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances. ...High Plains into the southern and central Plains... Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances. ...High Plains into the southern and central Plains... Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances. ...High Plains into the southern and central Plains... Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances. ...High Plains into the southern and central Plains... Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central Plains tomorrow (Saturday). ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with thunderstorm chances. ...High Plains into the southern and central Plains... Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height, contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such, transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. A few marginally severe gusts could also occur over parts of the Sabine River Valley. ...Southern and Central High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will be northwesterly over much of the central U.S. today, as a ridge remains in place over the central High Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to move eastward through southwestern South Dakota as a lee trough deepens across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface trough. Along and to the east of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability by afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings along this corridor show moderate deep-layer shear, owing mostly to speed shear in the mid-levels. This instability/shear environment could be enough for a marginal severe threat late this afternoon and early this evening, with the primary threats being for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Sabine River Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today, as cyclonically curved northwesterly flow remains over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a slow-moving front will be positioned from east Texas eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near the front in the morning. This convection should move southeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the day. To the southwest of this convection, the airmass will remain undisturbed from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. This will allow for stronger surface heating, which should result in a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability could produce marginally severe wind gusts, mainly when low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of a marginal severe threat will be possible early this evening across parts of eastern Colorado and from north-central Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Eastern Colorado... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the central Rockies with a large plume of moisture extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. At the surface, high pressure, associated with a large post-frontal airmass, is located over much of the central and eastern U.S. Along the western edge of the airmass, an upslope flow regime is present over the central High Plains. Relatively isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in eastern Colorado near an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This suggest the environment could support a marginal severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats. ...North-central/Northeast Texas/Northern Louisiana... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Southeast. A mid-level shortwave trough appears to be moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just ahead of the shortwave over northern Louisiana, extending westward along a front into northeast and north-central Texas. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Near the front, the 00Z soundings at Fort Worth and Shreveport have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with steep low-level lapse rates. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts early this evening. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of a marginal severe threat will be possible early this evening across parts of eastern Colorado and from north-central Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Eastern Colorado... At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the central Rockies with a large plume of moisture extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. At the surface, high pressure, associated with a large post-frontal airmass, is located over much of the central and eastern U.S. Along the western edge of the airmass, an upslope flow regime is present over the central High Plains. Relatively isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in eastern Colorado near an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This suggest the environment could support a marginal severe threat early this evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary threats. ...North-central/Northeast Texas/Northern Louisiana... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Southeast. A mid-level shortwave trough appears to be moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just ahead of the shortwave over northern Louisiana, extending westward along a front into northeast and north-central Texas. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Near the front, the 00Z soundings at Fort Worth and Shreveport have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with steep low-level lapse rates. This could be enough for isolated severe gusts early this evening. Hail will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 08/29/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 28 02:15:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 28 02:15:02 UTC 2025.