Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2021 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2021 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292002Z - 292130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue developing this afternoon over the higher-terrains and adjacent plains. Eventually a few stronger clusters or supercells may evolve with a risk for damaging gusts and some hail. A WW is possible but uncertain. DISCUSSION...Weak upslope flow and strong diurnal heating of a moist air mass is support scattered thunderstorm development over portions of the central Rockies this afternoon. Weak ascent from a glancing shortwave trough and continued upslope should allow for additional development over the next several hours. While low and mid-level lapse rates aren't particularly steep, heating and upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints are supporting moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) over the southern high Plains. As convection intensifies this afternoon a 35-45 kt of bulk-shear are in place to support storm organization. A few organized clusters or supercell structures could evolve with an initial risk of damaging gusts and some hail. CAM guidance has trended more aggressive this afternoon, showing further storm development/upscale growth into this evening, which could support one or more linear clusters with a locally greater damaging wind threat. While confidence in the convective evolution is low owing to somewhat nebulous forcing for ascent, storm coverage is expected to increase over the coming hours. A broadly favorable severe environment with continued destabilization also suggests the severe threat is likely increasing. Portions of southeastern CO, southwest KS and northeast NM will be upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk at 20z. A WW is also being considered. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37380536 38750434 39050297 38270218 37070234 35300310 34350379 34250434 34540511 36330555 37380536 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0604 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 29 20:05:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2020 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of Nebraska...Southern South Dakota Northeastern Colorado and far northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291913Z - 292115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon/evening. A few supercells may organize with a risk for hail and damaging gusts. A WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 1910 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed initial convective development was underway across parts of the central Plains. Weak ascent from a shortwave trough exiting the Rockies will continue to overspread a warming air mass ahead of a weak lee trough/low over western NE. With little remnant inhibition (from the 18z LBF sounding), continued diurnal heating will result in gradual destabilization with menial mid-level lapse, generally less than 7 C/km. Despite the poor lapse rates, MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg should be sufficient for scattered strong to occasionally severe storms. Elongated hodographs, owing to 40-50 kt of deep-layer flow, will support storm organization into clusters and a few supercells. Hail will be possible along with damaging winds given the high PWAT air mass. Confidence in the timing and general convective evolution is low owing to modest forcing for ascent. The poor lapse rates also suggest storm organization may be somewhat slow initially as updrafts gradually build in intensity. However, CAM guidance does show stronger, likely organized, storms eventually evolving over portions of central and southern NE later this afternoon. Given the expected increase in storm coverage and potential for organized supercells with a severe risk, a WW is possible. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40159973 39920004 39370089 39050265 39710345 40730280 41410243 42730189 43470141 43630041 43469957 42329845 41189879 40159973 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more