Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

MD 1667 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR VT/NH AND WESTERN ME INTO EASTERN NY...WESTERN MA/CT...NORTHEAST PA...AND NORTHERN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1667 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...VT/NH and western ME into eastern NY...western MA/CT...northeast PA...and northern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141720Z - 141945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of localized damaging winds are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually deepening early this afternoon from western VT/ME into eastern NY and northeast PA. Continued heating of a very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE increasing above 1500 J/kg, and storm coverage is expected to increase with time as a midlevel shortwave trough over western PA approaches the region. Weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity, but modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow and effective shear of 25-30 kt could support occasional storm organization. Relatively large PW (generally 1.5 - 1.8 inches) may result in localized downbursts with any stronger cells, while a few outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time. The strongest cells/clusters may be capable of producing localized damaging winds through the afternoon. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... CTP... LAT...LON 41517675 41807718 42147708 42557614 43477414 45097322 45227158 46866999 47106872 46856832 45636945 45176986 44547034 43827094 42897169 42347226 41497320 40547430 40797495 41127576 41517675 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more