Severe Storms

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW PHP TO 30 E PHP TO 45 NW PIR. ..KERR..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 511 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-041-065-071-075-085-095-102-107-117-119-121-123-150140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT DEWEY HUGHES JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA POTTER STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 14 22:41:16 UTC 2025.

WW 0511 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0511 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 511 SEVERE TSTM SD 142240Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and south central South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 540 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A loosely organized cluster of storms will spread eastward from southwest into central and south central South Dakota through this evening. The storm environment will favor occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph, and possibly isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Pierre SD to 75 miles south southeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 14 22:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions under heavier rain cores. ...Day 4/Thursday... Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin, Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer prohibiting appreciable rainfall. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1670 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1670 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...southwestern South Dakota...and Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142018Z - 142215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms initiated early this afternoon over the higher terrain of Wyoming, as ascent associated with an approaching midlevel shortwave trough overspreads the area. Continued initiation over the higher terrain along with new initiation farther east along the a surface pressure trough will eventually pose a severe-weather threat later this afternoon and evening. Although low-level moisture is mixing out across much of the area this afternoon (upper 40s to low 50s F 2-m Td), very steep low-level and midlevel lapse rates (per 18Z UNR sounding) are still resulting in over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles across the region will support an isolated dry-microburst threat for the strongest storms. For a more organized severe threat, deep-layer shear is marginally supportive and strongest (around 30 knots) with northward extent into northeastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. The latest CAM guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth of convection into clusters posing an organized severe-wind threat. Convective trends will be monitored for this scenario and the possibility of a watch. ..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 41230533 42330551 43110588 44280656 44700581 44820501 44900438 44900311 44810200 44510128 43750115 43160139 42540197 41970280 41560345 41210448 41230533 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1669 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1669 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Georgia into northern/central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141918Z - 142145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, posing an isolated threat of damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated on low-level convergence boundaries across the region this afternoon in a hot, unstable (~2500 J/kg MLCAPE) airmass. While upper-tropospheric flow is weak (per XMR 14Z sounding), enhanced low-to-midlevel northerly flow on the west side of the low off the Atlantic coast may help storm organization. Local VWPs indicate around 25-30 knots of flow between 700 and 500 mb, which may help to organize southward-to-south-southwestward-propagating clusters as cold pools begin to merge. These storms will pose a damaging-wind threat this afternoon, but the impacts are expected to be too isolated to warrant a watch. ..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 26808223 27278110 28788125 29898159 30868165 31688153 31898189 31778225 30928258 30228283 29458293 28818264 28168277 27498273 26808223 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1668 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MD/DC...NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA...THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST PA...FAR WESTERN NJ...NORTHERN DE...
Mesoscale Discussion 1668 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of MD/DC...northern/central VA...the eastern WV Panhandle...Southeast PA...far western NJ...northern DE, Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141820Z - 142045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms with potential for isolated to scattered wind damage are expected later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating of a very moist (PW near/above 2 inches) environment is underway this afternoon from southeast PA into MD and northern/central VA. MLCAPE is already above 2000 J/kg across much of the region, and may increase to near/above 3000 J/kg in areas where preconvective heating continues through late afternoon. Storms have already developed across central PA, with additional development recently noted farther south along the Blue Ridge into northwest/west-central VA. Storm coverage will continue to increase with time, in response to an approaching midlevel shortwave trough currently over western PA. Poor midlevel lapse rates and relatively weak effective shear (generally 15-25 kt) will tend to limit storm organization to some extent. However, the strongest initial cells may be capable of producing localized downbursts within the very moist environment. With time, consolidating outflows may result in one or more eastward-moving clusters that would move across the Mid Atlantic region. Any such cluster may be capable of producing localized swaths of more concentrated wind damage. Watch issuance is possible, depending on trends regarding clustering of storms with time. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37827936 39877798 41067595 40757500 40237500 39597536 38457668 37717771 37387870 37827936 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more