Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, but the chance for severe is low. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place over the southern and central Plains, where dewpoints are mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of this airmass. Due to relatively weak instability and deep-layer shear, along with limited large-scale ascent, any severe threat is expected to remain extremely localized this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening into tonight. ..Broyles.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, but the chance for severe is low. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place over the southern and central Plains, where dewpoints are mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of this airmass. Due to relatively weak instability and deep-layer shear, along with limited large-scale ascent, any severe threat is expected to remain extremely localized this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening into tonight. ..Broyles.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, but the chance for severe is low. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place over the southern and central Plains, where dewpoints are mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of this airmass. Due to relatively weak instability and deep-layer shear, along with limited large-scale ascent, any severe threat is expected to remain extremely localized this evening. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening into tonight. ..Broyles.. 08/31/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 30 23:51:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 30 23:51:01 UTC 2025.

MD 2024 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302142Z - 302345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A marginal risk for strong to severe wind will be possible this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is noted near Lubbock,TX in the region of the surface trough. Cumulus extends across the Texas Panhandle within plume of moisture characterized by low to mid 60s dew points. Modest northwesterly flow extends along the northern portion of the Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Thus far, where thunderstorms have developed, shear profiles remain weak with little in the way of organization. Should development occur further north near the belt of enhanced northwesterly flow, as indicated in some CAM guidance, stronger storms may be possible with potential for strong to severe winds. Confidence is low overall in organized development occurring and thus a watch is unlikely. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33370295 34040261 35190168 36230070 36230026 36099992 35909987 34689953 34189978 33580057 33430146 33320206 33300254 33370295 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A closed mid/upper-level low, initially located just off the Pacific Northwest coast at the start of Day 3/Monday, is forecast to begin retrograding farther westward into the Pacific Ocean by Day 4/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue quickly building north/northwestward across the Western US Day 3/Monday and persist over the area through late next week. A compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift slowly north/northeastward from the Pacific Ocean and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 4/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 6/Thursday, while moving along the western periphery of the ridge. ...Day 3/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... Lingering dry and breezy conditions are expected across wind-prone portions of Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Monday owing to enhanced flow associated with the aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast. Current ensemble forecasts suggest wind speeds remaining below critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding critical probabilities. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 3/Monday and persist through much of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires. Lightning potential may also increase across portions of northern California into southern Oregon Day 4/Tuesday through Day 6/Thursday, as the aforementioned compact upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward. These differences are enough to lower confidence in the timing, the location, and the coverage probabilities of thunderstorms, which precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as drying intensifies with the upper-level ridge building into the area, a dry thunderstorm area may be needed as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more