Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 512 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW JMS TO 35 NNE JMS TO 30 SW HCO. ..BENTLEY..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 512 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-021-027-029-057-061-071-087-089-107-113-119-125- 150740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE NDC003-017-035-039-091-097-150740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS GRIGGS STEELE TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 512 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW JMS TO 35 NNE JMS TO 30 SW HCO. ..BENTLEY..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 512 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-021-027-029-057-061-071-087-089-107-113-119-125- 150740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE NDC003-017-035-039-091-097-150740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS GRIGGS STEELE TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 512 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW JMS TO 35 NNE JMS TO 30 SW HCO. ..BENTLEY..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 512 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-021-027-029-057-061-071-087-089-107-113-119-125- 150740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE NDC003-017-035-039-091-097-150740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS GRIGGS STEELE TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 512 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 150425Z - 151100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 512 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota East central North Dakota * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1125 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of storms with embedded supercell structures is expected to develop/expand eastward through the early morning hours from eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter will be the main threat initially, though there will be some potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts up to 65 mph as storm clusters grow overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Jamestown ND to 65 miles east of Bemidji MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low/uncertain on Thursday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude westerly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, the subtropical upper high over the Southeast will slowly spread westward. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northwest OH to northwest OK and the TX Panhandle at the beginning of the period. Much of the boundary will stall/move very little over the Plains and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. Meanwhile, the northern portions of the front will spread east across the Lower Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast. Some severe potential could develop in the vicinity of the surface boundary across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. This uncertainty precludes severe probabilities at this time, but could become necessary in later outlooks as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low/uncertain on Thursday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude westerly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, the subtropical upper high over the Southeast will slowly spread westward. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northwest OH to northwest OK and the TX Panhandle at the beginning of the period. Much of the boundary will stall/move very little over the Plains and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. Meanwhile, the northern portions of the front will spread east across the Lower Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast. Some severe potential could develop in the vicinity of the surface boundary across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. This uncertainty precludes severe probabilities at this time, but could become necessary in later outlooks as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 07/15/2025 Read more