Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Discussion... Modest-strength mid-level northwesterly winds aloft will persist over the Great Plains, to the east of the Rockies-centered upper ridge and an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Weak convergence/subtle surface troughing will be prevalent in association with a persistently moist air mass across the southern Plains. Although a few strong storms could occur across parts of Kansas/Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon into evening, the combination of only modest instability and relatively weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe-weather potential. A few strong storms could also develop across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona later this afternoon into this evening, with some stronger wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Discussion... Modest-strength mid-level northwesterly winds aloft will persist over the Great Plains, to the east of the Rockies-centered upper ridge and an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Weak convergence/subtle surface troughing will be prevalent in association with a persistently moist air mass across the southern Plains. Although a few strong storms could occur across parts of Kansas/Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon into evening, the combination of only modest instability and relatively weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe-weather potential. A few strong storms could also develop across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona later this afternoon into this evening, with some stronger wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/31/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts. Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts. Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts. Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to overspread the eastern U.S. as upper ridging remains in place west of the Rockies. Guidance consensus depicts a pronounced, positively-tilted mid-level trough rapidly amplifying while quickly translating southeastward, pivoting around the broader cyclonic flow aloft. As a result, a cold front will begin surge southward across the northern Plains on Tuesday. Farther to the south, rich low-level moisture will continue to meander across the central and southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Strong thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the surface cold front over the northern Plains, where modest tropospheric lapse rates and vertical wind shear would support strong wind gusts. Similarly, a couple of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out over the Lower MS Valley, where a passing mid-level perturbation may locally augment deep-layer shear to support multicellular structures. Nonetheless, the anticipated coverage of severe wind or hail appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low for tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow over the eastern U.S., with upper ridging west of the Rockies, will encourage a mid-level northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. Surface high pressure will dominate east of the MS River to the Atlantic Seaboard, and over the Rockies. However, an axis of low-level moisture will remain in place across the Plains, where daytime surface heating will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates should generally remain around or under 6.5 C/km, contributing to tall and thin MLCAPE profiles generally within the 500-1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm updrafts should not be overly intense. However, speed shear, driven by the stronger northwesterly mid-level flow, will result in modestly elongated hodographs, with over 35 kts of effective bulk shear in spots. A few storms may become organized multicells, likely accompanied by sub-severe wind and hail. However, a couple storms could produce marginally severe gusts if stronger buoyancy is realized. Severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook, but may need to be introduced in subsequent outlooks if instability is greater than currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low for tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow over the eastern U.S., with upper ridging west of the Rockies, will encourage a mid-level northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. Surface high pressure will dominate east of the MS River to the Atlantic Seaboard, and over the Rockies. However, an axis of low-level moisture will remain in place across the Plains, where daytime surface heating will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates should generally remain around or under 6.5 C/km, contributing to tall and thin MLCAPE profiles generally within the 500-1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm updrafts should not be overly intense. However, speed shear, driven by the stronger northwesterly mid-level flow, will result in modestly elongated hodographs, with over 35 kts of effective bulk shear in spots. A few storms may become organized multicells, likely accompanied by sub-severe wind and hail. However, a couple storms could produce marginally severe gusts if stronger buoyancy is realized. Severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook, but may need to be introduced in subsequent outlooks if instability is greater than currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low for tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow over the eastern U.S., with upper ridging west of the Rockies, will encourage a mid-level northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. Surface high pressure will dominate east of the MS River to the Atlantic Seaboard, and over the Rockies. However, an axis of low-level moisture will remain in place across the Plains, where daytime surface heating will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates should generally remain around or under 6.5 C/km, contributing to tall and thin MLCAPE profiles generally within the 500-1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm updrafts should not be overly intense. However, speed shear, driven by the stronger northwesterly mid-level flow, will result in modestly elongated hodographs, with over 35 kts of effective bulk shear in spots. A few storms may become organized multicells, likely accompanied by sub-severe wind and hail. However, a couple storms could produce marginally severe gusts if stronger buoyancy is realized. Severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook, but may need to be introduced in subsequent outlooks if instability is greater than currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low for tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic upper flow over the eastern U.S., with upper ridging west of the Rockies, will encourage a mid-level northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. Surface high pressure will dominate east of the MS River to the Atlantic Seaboard, and over the Rockies. However, an axis of low-level moisture will remain in place across the Plains, where daytime surface heating will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates should generally remain around or under 6.5 C/km, contributing to tall and thin MLCAPE profiles generally within the 500-1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm updrafts should not be overly intense. However, speed shear, driven by the stronger northwesterly mid-level flow, will result in modestly elongated hodographs, with over 35 kts of effective bulk shear in spots. A few storms may become organized multicells, likely accompanied by sub-severe wind and hail. However, a couple storms could produce marginally severe gusts if stronger buoyancy is realized. Severe probabilities have been withheld this outlook, but may need to be introduced in subsequent outlooks if instability is greater than currently forecast. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the southern and central Plains, and the the Pacific Northwest. The severe potential appears to be low. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today in the central U.S., as a moist airmass remains over much of the Great Plains. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon. Although a few strong storms could occur, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear will likely be too weak for an appreciable severe weather threat. In the Pacific Northwest, a mid-level low pressure system will affect western Washington, where isolated thunderstorms could develop during the day. In the Pacific Northwest, instability and deep-layer shear is also expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, no severe threat is forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the southern and central Plains, and the the Pacific Northwest. The severe potential appears to be low. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today in the central U.S., as a moist airmass remains over much of the Great Plains. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon. Although a few strong storms could occur, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear will likely be too weak for an appreciable severe weather threat. In the Pacific Northwest, a mid-level low pressure system will affect western Washington, where isolated thunderstorms could develop during the day. In the Pacific Northwest, instability and deep-layer shear is also expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, no severe threat is forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the southern and central Plains, and the the Pacific Northwest. The severe potential appears to be low. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today in the central U.S., as a moist airmass remains over much of the Great Plains. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon. Although a few strong storms could occur, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear will likely be too weak for an appreciable severe weather threat. In the Pacific Northwest, a mid-level low pressure system will affect western Washington, where isolated thunderstorms could develop during the day. In the Pacific Northwest, instability and deep-layer shear is also expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, no severe threat is forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the southern and central Plains, and the the Pacific Northwest. The severe potential appears to be low. ...DISCUSSION... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today in the central U.S., as a moist airmass remains over much of the Great Plains. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon. Although a few strong storms could occur, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear will likely be too weak for an appreciable severe weather threat. In the Pacific Northwest, a mid-level low pressure system will affect western Washington, where isolated thunderstorms could develop during the day. In the Pacific Northwest, instability and deep-layer shear is also expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, no severe threat is forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ..Thornton.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more