Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to build north/northwestward across much of the western U.S. and extend into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Tuesday into Day 4/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-low is forecast to meander north/northeastward along the western periphery of the ridge, coming onshore over portions of central/northern California Day 3/Tuesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low remains somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability regarding timing. Nevertheless, the low should generally drift slowly into portions of Oregon by Day 4/Wednesday or Day 5/Thursday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop Day 4/Tuesday across much of California and the Northwest and persist through at least the middle of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area. This may promote increasing fire activity from recent holdovers, longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires, and an increasing risk for large plume-dominated fires. Lightning potential is also forecast to increase across portions of northern California into Oregon Day 3/Tuesday through Day 4/Wednesday, as the aforementioned upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward - especially late Day 4/Wednesday through Day 5/Thursday. Nevertheless, dry thunderstorm probabilities (10-39%) were introduced for Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday for where the most favorable overlap of thunder potential atop receptive fuels is currently expected. These areas may need to be refined and an additional area may need to be added for Day 5/Thursday as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to build north/northwestward across much of the western U.S. and extend into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Tuesday into Day 4/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-low is forecast to meander north/northeastward along the western periphery of the ridge, coming onshore over portions of central/northern California Day 3/Tuesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low remains somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability regarding timing. Nevertheless, the low should generally drift slowly into portions of Oregon by Day 4/Wednesday or Day 5/Thursday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop Day 4/Tuesday across much of California and the Northwest and persist through at least the middle of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area. This may promote increasing fire activity from recent holdovers, longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires, and an increasing risk for large plume-dominated fires. Lightning potential is also forecast to increase across portions of northern California into Oregon Day 3/Tuesday through Day 4/Wednesday, as the aforementioned upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward - especially late Day 4/Wednesday through Day 5/Thursday. Nevertheless, dry thunderstorm probabilities (10-39%) were introduced for Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday for where the most favorable overlap of thunder potential atop receptive fuels is currently expected. These areas may need to be refined and an additional area may need to be added for Day 5/Thursday as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to build north/northwestward across much of the western U.S. and extend into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Tuesday into Day 4/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-low is forecast to meander north/northeastward along the western periphery of the ridge, coming onshore over portions of central/northern California Day 3/Tuesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low remains somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability regarding timing. Nevertheless, the low should generally drift slowly into portions of Oregon by Day 4/Wednesday or Day 5/Thursday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop Day 4/Tuesday across much of California and the Northwest and persist through at least the middle of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area. This may promote increasing fire activity from recent holdovers, longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires, and an increasing risk for large plume-dominated fires. Lightning potential is also forecast to increase across portions of northern California into Oregon Day 3/Tuesday through Day 4/Wednesday, as the aforementioned upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward - especially late Day 4/Wednesday through Day 5/Thursday. Nevertheless, dry thunderstorm probabilities (10-39%) were introduced for Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday for where the most favorable overlap of thunder potential atop receptive fuels is currently expected. These areas may need to be refined and an additional area may need to be added for Day 5/Thursday as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to build north/northwestward across much of the western U.S. and extend into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Tuesday into Day 4/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-low is forecast to meander north/northeastward along the western periphery of the ridge, coming onshore over portions of central/northern California Day 3/Tuesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low remains somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability regarding timing. Nevertheless, the low should generally drift slowly into portions of Oregon by Day 4/Wednesday or Day 5/Thursday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop Day 4/Tuesday across much of California and the Northwest and persist through at least the middle of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area. This may promote increasing fire activity from recent holdovers, longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires, and an increasing risk for large plume-dominated fires. Lightning potential is also forecast to increase across portions of northern California into Oregon Day 3/Tuesday through Day 4/Wednesday, as the aforementioned upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward - especially late Day 4/Wednesday through Day 5/Thursday. Nevertheless, dry thunderstorm probabilities (10-39%) were introduced for Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday for where the most favorable overlap of thunder potential atop receptive fuels is currently expected. These areas may need to be refined and an additional area may need to be added for Day 5/Thursday as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid/upper-level ridge is forecast to build north/northwestward across much of the western U.S. and extend into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Tuesday into Day 4/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-low is forecast to meander north/northeastward along the western periphery of the ridge, coming onshore over portions of central/northern California Day 3/Tuesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low remains somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability regarding timing. Nevertheless, the low should generally drift slowly into portions of Oregon by Day 4/Wednesday or Day 5/Thursday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop Day 4/Tuesday across much of California and the Northwest and persist through at least the middle of the week as the aforementioned upper-level ridge builds into the area. This may promote increasing fire activity from recent holdovers, longer burn periods on any ongoing large fires, and an increasing risk for large plume-dominated fires. Lightning potential is also forecast to increase across portions of northern California into Oregon Day 3/Tuesday through Day 4/Wednesday, as the aforementioned upper-low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. Primary forecast challenge remains the evolution of the low, with key differences still present in ensemble guidance regarding how quickly the low moves northward - especially late Day 4/Wednesday through Day 5/Thursday. Nevertheless, dry thunderstorm probabilities (10-39%) were introduced for Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday for where the most favorable overlap of thunder potential atop receptive fuels is currently expected. These areas may need to be refined and an additional area may need to be added for Day 5/Thursday as guidance comes into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was adjusted based on observational trends and recent guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was adjusted based on observational trends and recent guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was adjusted based on observational trends and recent guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was adjusted based on observational trends and recent guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was adjusted based on observational trends and recent guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, though severe potential is uncertain. ...Parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Within a broader northwesterly flow regime, a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from northern SK into MB on Tuesday, and approach northern ND/MN by the end of the period. This shortwave and attendant large-scale ascent will eventually impinge upon a zone of favorable boundary-layer moisture and moderate instability along/ahead of a cold front from parts of the Dakotas into MN. However, guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the shortwave and related mid/upper-level jet, placement of the cold front by late afternoon, and extent to which stronger deep-layer shear overspreads the more favorable instability. There will be some potential for storm development along/ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, and also for elevated convection behind the front. A few strong storms (both elevated and surface-based) will be possible, and severe probabilities may be needed once confidence increases regarding the evolution of the primary synoptic features. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley, within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime. A low-amplitude shortwave approaching the base of a deep mid/upper-level trough covering the eastern CONUS may locally enhance ascent and deep-layer shear, and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms. However, midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain quite weak, and updrafts may not become sufficiently strong to support an organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, though severe potential is uncertain. ...Parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Within a broader northwesterly flow regime, a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from northern SK into MB on Tuesday, and approach northern ND/MN by the end of the period. This shortwave and attendant large-scale ascent will eventually impinge upon a zone of favorable boundary-layer moisture and moderate instability along/ahead of a cold front from parts of the Dakotas into MN. However, guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the shortwave and related mid/upper-level jet, placement of the cold front by late afternoon, and extent to which stronger deep-layer shear overspreads the more favorable instability. There will be some potential for storm development along/ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, and also for elevated convection behind the front. A few strong storms (both elevated and surface-based) will be possible, and severe probabilities may be needed once confidence increases regarding the evolution of the primary synoptic features. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley, within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime. A low-amplitude shortwave approaching the base of a deep mid/upper-level trough covering the eastern CONUS may locally enhance ascent and deep-layer shear, and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms. However, midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain quite weak, and updrafts may not become sufficiently strong to support an organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, though severe potential is uncertain. ...Parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Within a broader northwesterly flow regime, a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from northern SK into MB on Tuesday, and approach northern ND/MN by the end of the period. This shortwave and attendant large-scale ascent will eventually impinge upon a zone of favorable boundary-layer moisture and moderate instability along/ahead of a cold front from parts of the Dakotas into MN. However, guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the shortwave and related mid/upper-level jet, placement of the cold front by late afternoon, and extent to which stronger deep-layer shear overspreads the more favorable instability. There will be some potential for storm development along/ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, and also for elevated convection behind the front. A few strong storms (both elevated and surface-based) will be possible, and severe probabilities may be needed once confidence increases regarding the evolution of the primary synoptic features. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley, within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime. A low-amplitude shortwave approaching the base of a deep mid/upper-level trough covering the eastern CONUS may locally enhance ascent and deep-layer shear, and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms. However, midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain quite weak, and updrafts may not become sufficiently strong to support an organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, though severe potential is uncertain. ...Parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Within a broader northwesterly flow regime, a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from northern SK into MB on Tuesday, and approach northern ND/MN by the end of the period. This shortwave and attendant large-scale ascent will eventually impinge upon a zone of favorable boundary-layer moisture and moderate instability along/ahead of a cold front from parts of the Dakotas into MN. However, guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the shortwave and related mid/upper-level jet, placement of the cold front by late afternoon, and extent to which stronger deep-layer shear overspreads the more favorable instability. There will be some potential for storm development along/ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, and also for elevated convection behind the front. A few strong storms (both elevated and surface-based) will be possible, and severe probabilities may be needed once confidence increases regarding the evolution of the primary synoptic features. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley, within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime. A low-amplitude shortwave approaching the base of a deep mid/upper-level trough covering the eastern CONUS may locally enhance ascent and deep-layer shear, and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms. However, midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain quite weak, and updrafts may not become sufficiently strong to support an organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, though severe potential is uncertain. ...Parts of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Within a broader northwesterly flow regime, a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from northern SK into MB on Tuesday, and approach northern ND/MN by the end of the period. This shortwave and attendant large-scale ascent will eventually impinge upon a zone of favorable boundary-layer moisture and moderate instability along/ahead of a cold front from parts of the Dakotas into MN. However, guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the shortwave and related mid/upper-level jet, placement of the cold front by late afternoon, and extent to which stronger deep-layer shear overspreads the more favorable instability. There will be some potential for storm development along/ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening, and also for elevated convection behind the front. A few strong storms (both elevated and surface-based) will be possible, and severe probabilities may be needed once confidence increases regarding the evolution of the primary synoptic features. ...Lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley... Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening across parts of the lower MS Valley into parts of the TN Valley, within a modest west-northwesterly flow regime. A low-amplitude shortwave approaching the base of a deep mid/upper-level trough covering the eastern CONUS may locally enhance ascent and deep-layer shear, and gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms. However, midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain quite weak, and updrafts may not become sufficiently strong to support an organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this outlook update. Hot temperatures, low minimum RH values, and locally breezy offshore winds will also promote brief periods of spotty elevated fire weather conditions across the wind-prone areas of the Central Coast foothills/canyons of southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this outlook update. Hot temperatures, low minimum RH values, and locally breezy offshore winds will also promote brief periods of spotty elevated fire weather conditions across the wind-prone areas of the Central Coast foothills/canyons of southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this outlook update. Hot temperatures, low minimum RH values, and locally breezy offshore winds will also promote brief periods of spotty elevated fire weather conditions across the wind-prone areas of the Central Coast foothills/canyons of southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this outlook update. Hot temperatures, low minimum RH values, and locally breezy offshore winds will also promote brief periods of spotty elevated fire weather conditions across the wind-prone areas of the Central Coast foothills/canyons of southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains mostly on-track, with no changes needed with this outlook update. Hot temperatures, low minimum RH values, and locally breezy offshore winds will also promote brief periods of spotty elevated fire weather conditions across the wind-prone areas of the Central Coast foothills/canyons of southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to be low for D2/Monday. An upper-level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to wobble just offshore. Northwest breezes will continue across portions of Northern California but winds look to remain very localized and just below Elevated criteria. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more