Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes severe probabilities. Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 512 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW JMS TO 35 NNE JMS TO 30 SW HCO. ..BENTLEY..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 512 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-021-027-029-057-061-071-087-089-107-113-119-125- 150740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE NDC003-017-035-039-091-097-150740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS GRIGGS STEELE TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0512 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 512 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW JMS TO 35 NNE JMS TO 30 SW HCO. ..BENTLEY..07/15/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 512 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-021-027-029-057-061-071-087-089-107-113-119-125- 150740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE NDC003-017-035-039-091-097-150740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS GRIGGS STEELE TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more