Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... A persistent northwesterly flow regime will continue over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging intensifies across the Interior West on Monday. In the wake of upper troughing over the East, surface high pressure is expected across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast. Unseasonably cool surface conditions will prevail over much of the eastern US, while robust moisture content lingers over the central CONUS. A weak cold front will continue to meander south over the Plains, serving as a focus for afternoon storms. ...Southern Plains... Across the southern and central Plains, several clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period ahead of a diffuse cold front moving south. Cloud debris and outflow from these clusters will likely modify the surrounding air mass casting significant uncertainty on diurnal destabilization. Still, some heating of a seasonably moist air mass should support modest buoyancy by the afternoon. Reintensification of some of these thunderstorm clusters, or additional development along outflow or MCVs is possible. While a strong storm or two with damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the modest buoyancy and poor lapse rates will likely limit convective intensity. Severe probabilities will remain below 5%. ..Lyons.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The most recent high-resolution ensemble guidance indicates a low chance of relatively fast-moving high-based showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades in north-central Washington beginning late tomorrow (Sunday) evening through the overnight. At this time, uncertainty regarding lightning potential (due to strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates could promote gusty/erratic winds in any thunderstorms that develop. An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area may be needed if guidance continues to show increasing thunderstorm coverage probabilities. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more