Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential appears relatively low on Monday, though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, the northern Plains, and parts of Arizona. ...Parts of KS/OK... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across east-central portions of the Plains on Monday. To the immediate west of this shortwave trough, moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/western KS/OK during the afternoon and evening. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, but some heating of a relatively moist boundary later will likely result in MLCAPE increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range across parts of the region. Effective shear within the northwest-flow regime will be sufficient for storm organization (generally in the 25-40 kt range), but weak midlevel lapse rates and uncertain forcing for ascent within the most favorable shear region result in uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity. Severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding development of sufficient instability and robust diurnal storms. ...North Dakota and vicinity... Scattered storms are expected during the afternoon and evening across parts of ND and potentially northwest MN, within a moderately unstable and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear will be modest at best within a weak northwesterly flow regime, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. If trends support somewhat stronger shear or instability compared to current forecasts, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ...Arizona... At least widely scattered storm development is expected across parts of AZ (mainly near the higher terrain) during the afternoon, as modest moistening occurs across the region. Guidance varies regarding storm coverage, but weak midlevel easterly flow could support storms (or at least their remnant outflows) spreading into the lower deserts by evening, accompanied by gusty winds. ..Dean.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z The latest high-resolution ensemble guidance has trended a bit more favorable regarding lightning potential across the Washington Cascades today/tonight. While a few lightning flashes are possible during the day, as seen in recent observational lightning data, relatively greater chances (10-20%) are expected late this evening through the overnight hours as upper-level energy overspreads the area. Nocturnal isolated dry thunderstorms are possible due to the warm/dry sub-cloud layers and increasingly receptive fuels (based on the latest fuel guidance). Breezy/erratic thunderstorm outflow winds will also be possible nearby any thunderstorms due to steep low-level lapse rates. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 08/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level low near the Pacific Northwest will retrograde westward D2/Sunday into D3/Monday. Continued breezy northerly winds will be possible across portions of northern California across the Coastal Range and Portions of the Sierra Nevada, with potential for localized Elevated conditions. Overall, this threat looks to remain too isolated to include any areas at this time. A few isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late in the period across the Washington Cascades. There remains some uncertainty regarding lightning potential (with potential strong capping and weak ascent) coupled with recent rainfall over the past 48-72 hours lowers confidence in dry thunderstorm potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will persist today across the central CONUS, which is situation between a developing Rex block over southeast Canada and the northeast CONUS, and extensive upper ridging from the Southwest through the northern Rockies. Recent surface analysis shows moderate low-level moisture remains in place over the Great Plains, MS Valley, and Southeast. This analysis also placed a weak low along the central KS/OK border vicinity, with weak troughing extending northward from this low into south-central NE before arcing back northwestward through the NE Panhandle and western Dakotas. Modest surface troughing also extends southwestward from the low across the TX South Plains and into far southeast NM. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing from the central Plains into southern High Plains, with additional low-level moisture convergence contributing to continued thunderstorms across much of central TX and southwest TX as well. Limited buoyancy, owing to poor lapse rates and cool temperatures, should temper the overall severe potential today. Some evening and overnight thunderstorms are also possible across central/eastern WA, northern ID, and far northwest MT as ascent attendant to a well-defined cyclone spreads into the region. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Discussion... Modest-strength mid-level northwesterly winds aloft will persist over the Great Plains, to the east of the Rockies-centered upper ridge and an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Weak convergence/subtle surface troughing will be prevalent in association with a persistently moist air mass across the southern Plains. Although a few strong storms could occur across parts of Kansas/Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon into evening, the combination of only modest instability and relatively weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe-weather potential. A few strong storms could also develop across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona later this afternoon into this evening, with some stronger wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Overall severe weather potential is expected to be low today and tonight. ...Discussion... Modest-strength mid-level northwesterly winds aloft will persist over the Great Plains, to the east of the Rockies-centered upper ridge and an upper low off the coastal Pacific Northwest. Weak convergence/subtle surface troughing will be prevalent in association with a persistently moist air mass across the southern Plains. Although a few strong storms could occur across parts of Kansas/Oklahoma into Texas this afternoon into evening, the combination of only modest instability and relatively weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe-weather potential. A few strong storms could also develop across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona later this afternoon into this evening, with some stronger wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/31/2025 Read more