Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging, southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states. Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe activity later today. Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The only change for this portion of the region is to increase severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today, short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening. Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening. An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging, southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states. Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe activity later today. Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The only change for this portion of the region is to increase severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today, short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening. Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening. An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging, southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states. Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe activity later today. Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The only change for this portion of the region is to increase severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today, short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening. Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening. An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging, southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states. Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe activity later today. Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The only change for this portion of the region is to increase severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today, short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening. Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening. An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging, southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states. Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe activity later today. Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The only change for this portion of the region is to increase severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today, short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening. Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening. An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging, southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states. Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe activity later today. Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The only change for this portion of the region is to increase severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today, short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening. Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening. An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging, southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states. Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe activity later today. Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The only change for this portion of the region is to increase severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today, short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening. Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening. An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging, southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states. Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe activity later today. Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The only change for this portion of the region is to increase severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today, short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening. Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening. An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging, southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states. Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe activity later today. Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The only change for this portion of the region is to increase severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today, short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening. Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening. An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. A mix of scattered severe/damaging winds and large hail should also occur from the Upper Great Lakes to Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A belt of stronger mid-level westerly flow will remain confined generally along/north of the international border today. Even so, multiple weak mid-level perturbations, some of which are related to prior/ongoing convection, will aid in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening across portions of the northern/central Plains to upper Great Lakes. This convection will also be aided by a slowly southward sagging cold front across SD into NE, as a weak low develops northeastward across the Upper Midwest into Canada along this boundary. As diurnal heating occurs today, a moist and moderately to strongly unstable airmass will exist by this afternoon along/south of the front from NE into parts of SD, MN, and the U.P. of MI. While stronger flow aloft will tend to remain to the north of the front, there should still be sufficient deep-layer shear across the warm sector for some updraft organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along the front in MN by early afternoon, and quickly spread eastward across northern WI, the U.P. of MI, and Lake Superior through the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and ample instability. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies today will influence convective development this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin and WY vicinity. High-based convection that occurs across parts of eastern NV into UT will occur in a relatively dry profile, with limited total precipitable water. Still, a deeply mixed boundary layer coupled with weak instability should support some risk for severe gusts with this activity as it moves generally east-northeastward this afternoon/evening across the northern Great Basin vicinity. Greater low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, is already present this morning over parts northern WY. Convection that initially develops near Yellowstone in northwest WY may grow upscale fairly quickly into an organized cluster given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. The Slight Risk across WY has been expanded northward/eastward some based on latest guidance trends. This cluster should eventually weaken late this evening/tonight as it approaches the WY/NE/SD border vicinity. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. A mix of scattered severe/damaging winds and large hail should also occur from the Upper Great Lakes to Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A belt of stronger mid-level westerly flow will remain confined generally along/north of the international border today. Even so, multiple weak mid-level perturbations, some of which are related to prior/ongoing convection, will aid in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening across portions of the northern/central Plains to upper Great Lakes. This convection will also be aided by a slowly southward sagging cold front across SD into NE, as a weak low develops northeastward across the Upper Midwest into Canada along this boundary. As diurnal heating occurs today, a moist and moderately to strongly unstable airmass will exist by this afternoon along/south of the front from NE into parts of SD, MN, and the U.P. of MI. While stronger flow aloft will tend to remain to the north of the front, there should still be sufficient deep-layer shear across the warm sector for some updraft organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along the front in MN by early afternoon, and quickly spread eastward across northern WI, the U.P. of MI, and Lake Superior through the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and ample instability. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies today will influence convective development this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin and WY vicinity. High-based convection that occurs across parts of eastern NV into UT will occur in a relatively dry profile, with limited total precipitable water. Still, a deeply mixed boundary layer coupled with weak instability should support some risk for severe gusts with this activity as it moves generally east-northeastward this afternoon/evening across the northern Great Basin vicinity. Greater low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, is already present this morning over parts northern WY. Convection that initially develops near Yellowstone in northwest WY may grow upscale fairly quickly into an organized cluster given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. The Slight Risk across WY has been expanded northward/eastward some based on latest guidance trends. This cluster should eventually weaken late this evening/tonight as it approaches the WY/NE/SD border vicinity. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. A mix of scattered severe/damaging winds and large hail should also occur from the Upper Great Lakes to Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A belt of stronger mid-level westerly flow will remain confined generally along/north of the international border today. Even so, multiple weak mid-level perturbations, some of which are related to prior/ongoing convection, will aid in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening across portions of the northern/central Plains to upper Great Lakes. This convection will also be aided by a slowly southward sagging cold front across SD into NE, as a weak low develops northeastward across the Upper Midwest into Canada along this boundary. As diurnal heating occurs today, a moist and moderately to strongly unstable airmass will exist by this afternoon along/south of the front from NE into parts of SD, MN, and the U.P. of MI. While stronger flow aloft will tend to remain to the north of the front, there should still be sufficient deep-layer shear across the warm sector for some updraft organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along the front in MN by early afternoon, and quickly spread eastward across northern WI, the U.P. of MI, and Lake Superior through the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Sufficient instability and effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms, before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely present across this region compared to locations farther north, but deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still, some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and ample instability. The threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Great Basin into Wyoming... The upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies today will influence convective development this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin and WY vicinity. High-based convection that occurs across parts of eastern NV into UT will occur in a relatively dry profile, with limited total precipitable water. Still, a deeply mixed boundary layer coupled with weak instability should support some risk for severe gusts with this activity as it moves generally east-northeastward this afternoon/evening across the northern Great Basin vicinity. Greater low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, is already present this morning over parts northern WY. Convection that initially develops near Yellowstone in northwest WY may grow upscale fairly quickly into an organized cluster given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. The Slight Risk across WY has been expanded northward/eastward some based on latest guidance trends. This cluster should eventually weaken late this evening/tonight as it approaches the WY/NE/SD border vicinity. ...Arizona... Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of southern AZ through the evening. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/15/2025 Read more

MD 1673 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512... FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1673 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512... Valid 150755Z - 150930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512 continues. SUMMARY...Some large hail/severe wind threat to persist through the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...A east-west oriented line of elevated storms has developed along the northern periphery of a 40 knot low-level jet (sampled by the KFSD VWP) across northern Minnesota. A reservoir of strong instability exists to the south of these storms. This should provide sufficient fuel for continued maintenance of these storms through the early morning hours as they drift south. Storm mode is the greatest limiting factor at this time, but 40 knots of shear and 2500-3500 J/kg MUCAPE will provide an environment capable of some large hail and severe wind gusts along and north of the frontal zone across northern Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 47719298 47399311 47259343 47109425 47229536 47349555 48039557 48359538 48349529 48229329 47999307 47719298 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ..Thornton.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more