Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe potential appears relatively low today across the continental U.S., though a few strong storms will be possible across parts of the Great Plains. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will be in place across the western U.S., with northwesterly flow located from the Rockies eastward to the Appalachians. A north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture will present in the Great Plains, where warming surface heating will contribute to scattered convective initiation. Throughout this airmass, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s with weak instability developing by afternoon. Minimal deep-layer shear, poor lapse rates and a lack of large-scale ascent will limit the severe weather potential. Further west into the Pacific Northwest, a mid-level low will remain offshore from the Washington Coast. An axis of instability will develop across western Washington during the day. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, but the environment should be insufficient for severe storms. Elsewhere across the continental United States, no severe threat is expected. ..Broyles/Moore.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... The primary fire weather concern for Tuesday will be the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern CA into portions of northwest NV and central OR. Recent water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low off the southern CA coast that is forecast to meander northward over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, lift and mid-level moistening ahead of the wave will promote sufficient destabilization for convection beginning as early as 12z Tuesday morning across central CA, spreading northward through the afternoon and evening. In general, mid-level moisture quality should decrease with northward extent on the fringes of the better monsoonal moisture. An ensemble of forecast soundings suggests PWAT values may range from 0.6 to 0.8 inches across northern CA/northwest NV/central OR, which should favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Forecast storm motions between 15-20 knots may also help promote isolated dry lightning strikes over a landscape with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentiles. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Localized fire concerns may emerge this afternoon across portions of northeast California and south-central Oregon as southerly winds increase to around 15 mph within a fairly dry and deeply mixed air mass. However, the slow departure of an upper wave over the Pacific Northwest through the day will limit the surface mass response and the potential for strong/sustained gradient winds. Instead, breezy conditions will most likely be driven by diurnal mixing and/or terrain influence, resulting in mainly localized elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southeastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is located from the Great Plains eastward into the Appalachians. A moist airmass is in place from the Great Plains into the Southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Great Plains and southern Rockies. A few strong storms will be possible this evening near an instability axis from west Texas into central Oklahoma, but no appreciable severe threat is forecast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southeastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is located from the Great Plains eastward into the Appalachians. A moist airmass is in place from the Great Plains into the Southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Great Plains and southern Rockies. A few strong storms will be possible this evening near an instability axis from west Texas into central Oklahoma, but no appreciable severe threat is forecast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southeastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is located from the Great Plains eastward into the Appalachians. A moist airmass is in place from the Great Plains into the Southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Great Plains and southern Rockies. A few strong storms will be possible this evening near an instability axis from west Texas into central Oklahoma, but no appreciable severe threat is forecast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southeastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is located from the Great Plains eastward into the Appalachians. A moist airmass is in place from the Great Plains into the Southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Great Plains and southern Rockies. A few strong storms will be possible this evening near an instability axis from west Texas into central Oklahoma, but no appreciable severe threat is forecast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 09/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... Northwesterly flow is evident on water vapor imagery over much of the central and southeastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is located from the Great Plains eastward into the Appalachians. A moist airmass is in place from the Great Plains into the Southeast. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Great Plains and southern Rockies. A few strong storms will be possible this evening near an instability axis from west Texas into central Oklahoma, but no appreciable severe threat is forecast. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe threat is expected this evening and tonight. ..Broyles.. 09/01/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 31 23:32:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 31 23:32:02 UTC 2025.