SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC MD 1674

6 days 10 hours ago
MD 1674 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151748Z - 151945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in coverage near the cold front, with corridors of severe wind gusts possible, along with sporadic hail. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Arrowhead southwestward into northeast SD, with a weak surface low over central MN. Weak moisture convergence exists near the front and low, with a moist air mass in place. Continued heating within cloud breaks, and warming via advection out of the south will lead to a long duration deepening moist boundary layer. Storms have already formed over northeast MN into northern WI, where low-level warm advection is currently maximized. A general increase in storms is anticipated extending southwestward later this afternoon, as more of the area becomes fully uncapped. Hail cannot be ruled out with initial cell development, but overall deep-layer shear will remain less than about 30 kt. Activity is expected to merge/elongate along the entire boundary, which will remain mostly parallel to the midlevel winds. With southwest winds around 850 mb, this suggests a line of storms propagating in an east/southeastward direction from late afternoon through early evening. ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 46139085 45659264 45269407 45159492 45269546 45579558 45919549 46359506 46689452 47169306 47419178 47409122 47289078 47079036 46559035 46139085 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

6 days 12 hours ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more
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