Severe Storms

MD 2026 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2026 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012343Z - 020145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue south and westward through the evening with potential for strong to severe wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing this afternoon along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in northern/central Arizona. This activity will continue to drop southward into the lower deserts where temperatures have crested 100 F and dew point spreads around 40-50 degrees. In addition, steep low to mid-level lapse rates are noted with deeply mixed profiles. New activity is forming along a southwestward moving outflow boundary east of the Phoenix Metro. This may support a few instances of strong to severe wind and low visibility from blowing dust this evening. ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 34131168 34251118 34181116 34061115 33931099 33761074 33611044 33511014 33420971 33190983 33011007 32811073 32851119 32991161 33241197 33381214 33561215 34131168 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 1 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2025 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK AND THE FAR NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2025 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Areas affected...Southwest/south-central KS into northwest/north-central OK and the far northeast TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011901Z - 012130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening, with a threat of isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently been noted near Dodge City, in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/low. Diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass has resulted in the development of moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range where stronger heating is underway. Weak midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the 12Z DDC and OUN soundings) may tend to slow updraft intensification, but with time, scattered thunderstorm development is expected within a weakly capped environment, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves southeastward across central/eastern KS. A belt of moderate north-northwesterly midlevel flow associated with the approaching shortwave trough will overspread southwest/south-central KS into northwest/north-central OK with time, resulting in elongated hodographs and sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization. Multicell clusters and possibly a supercell or two may evolve within this regime. The weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit the magnitude of the hail threat, but isolated severe hail will be possible if any supercells can be sustained. Steepening of low-level lapse rates will support some potential for localized strong to severe gusts, especially if any organized clustering evolves with time. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 38160061 38349841 38319703 37519697 37099722 36049783 35809823 35779916 35880025 36210043 38160061 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An expansive mid/upper-level ridge is forecast across the western US extending northward into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift along the western periphery of the ridge over Oregon Day 3/Wednesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low (and overall synoptic pattern in the days following) continues to remain somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability. Nevertheless, the low is now generally forecast to move more quickly north/northwestward, reaching across portions of the Washington coast by Day 4/Thursday. While details remain unclear beyond Day 4/Thursday, guidance appears to be favoring the continuation of an inland western US upper-level ridge and some form of coastal trough through next weekend. ...Day 3/Wednesday: Northern California and the Northwest... Dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to linger at least into Day 3/Wednesday across portions of northern California, Oregon, western Idaho, and far southern Washington, as the aforementioned upper-level low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. While dry thunderstorm potential may remain across some of these areas beyond Day 3/Wednesday due to the aforementioned lingering coastal troughing, uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, locations, and mode (wet/dry) are currently too large to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An expansive mid/upper-level ridge is forecast across the western US extending northward into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift along the western periphery of the ridge over Oregon Day 3/Wednesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low (and overall synoptic pattern in the days following) continues to remain somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability. Nevertheless, the low is now generally forecast to move more quickly north/northwestward, reaching across portions of the Washington coast by Day 4/Thursday. While details remain unclear beyond Day 4/Thursday, guidance appears to be favoring the continuation of an inland western US upper-level ridge and some form of coastal trough through next weekend. ...Day 3/Wednesday: Northern California and the Northwest... Dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to linger at least into Day 3/Wednesday across portions of northern California, Oregon, western Idaho, and far southern Washington, as the aforementioned upper-level low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. While dry thunderstorm potential may remain across some of these areas beyond Day 3/Wednesday due to the aforementioned lingering coastal troughing, uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, locations, and mode (wet/dry) are currently too large to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An expansive mid/upper-level ridge is forecast across the western US extending northward into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift along the western periphery of the ridge over Oregon Day 3/Wednesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low (and overall synoptic pattern in the days following) continues to remain somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability. Nevertheless, the low is now generally forecast to move more quickly north/northwestward, reaching across portions of the Washington coast by Day 4/Thursday. While details remain unclear beyond Day 4/Thursday, guidance appears to be favoring the continuation of an inland western US upper-level ridge and some form of coastal trough through next weekend. ...Day 3/Wednesday: Northern California and the Northwest... Dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to linger at least into Day 3/Wednesday across portions of northern California, Oregon, western Idaho, and far southern Washington, as the aforementioned upper-level low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. While dry thunderstorm potential may remain across some of these areas beyond Day 3/Wednesday due to the aforementioned lingering coastal troughing, uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, locations, and mode (wet/dry) are currently too large to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An expansive mid/upper-level ridge is forecast across the western US extending northward into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift along the western periphery of the ridge over Oregon Day 3/Wednesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low (and overall synoptic pattern in the days following) continues to remain somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability. Nevertheless, the low is now generally forecast to move more quickly north/northwestward, reaching across portions of the Washington coast by Day 4/Thursday. While details remain unclear beyond Day 4/Thursday, guidance appears to be favoring the continuation of an inland western US upper-level ridge and some form of coastal trough through next weekend. ...Day 3/Wednesday: Northern California and the Northwest... Dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to linger at least into Day 3/Wednesday across portions of northern California, Oregon, western Idaho, and far southern Washington, as the aforementioned upper-level low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. While dry thunderstorm potential may remain across some of these areas beyond Day 3/Wednesday due to the aforementioned lingering coastal troughing, uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, locations, and mode (wet/dry) are currently too large to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An expansive mid/upper-level ridge is forecast across the western US extending northward into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift along the western periphery of the ridge over Oregon Day 3/Wednesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low (and overall synoptic pattern in the days following) continues to remain somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability. Nevertheless, the low is now generally forecast to move more quickly north/northwestward, reaching across portions of the Washington coast by Day 4/Thursday. While details remain unclear beyond Day 4/Thursday, guidance appears to be favoring the continuation of an inland western US upper-level ridge and some form of coastal trough through next weekend. ...Day 3/Wednesday: Northern California and the Northwest... Dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to linger at least into Day 3/Wednesday across portions of northern California, Oregon, western Idaho, and far southern Washington, as the aforementioned upper-level low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. While dry thunderstorm potential may remain across some of these areas beyond Day 3/Wednesday due to the aforementioned lingering coastal troughing, uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, locations, and mode (wet/dry) are currently too large to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An expansive mid/upper-level ridge is forecast across the western US extending northward into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift along the western periphery of the ridge over Oregon Day 3/Wednesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low (and overall synoptic pattern in the days following) continues to remain somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability. Nevertheless, the low is now generally forecast to move more quickly north/northwestward, reaching across portions of the Washington coast by Day 4/Thursday. While details remain unclear beyond Day 4/Thursday, guidance appears to be favoring the continuation of an inland western US upper-level ridge and some form of coastal trough through next weekend. ...Day 3/Wednesday: Northern California and the Northwest... Dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to linger at least into Day 3/Wednesday across portions of northern California, Oregon, western Idaho, and far southern Washington, as the aforementioned upper-level low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. While dry thunderstorm potential may remain across some of these areas beyond Day 3/Wednesday due to the aforementioned lingering coastal troughing, uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, locations, and mode (wet/dry) are currently too large to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An expansive mid/upper-level ridge is forecast across the western US extending northward into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift along the western periphery of the ridge over Oregon Day 3/Wednesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low (and overall synoptic pattern in the days following) continues to remain somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability. Nevertheless, the low is now generally forecast to move more quickly north/northwestward, reaching across portions of the Washington coast by Day 4/Thursday. While details remain unclear beyond Day 4/Thursday, guidance appears to be favoring the continuation of an inland western US upper-level ridge and some form of coastal trough through next weekend. ...Day 3/Wednesday: Northern California and the Northwest... Dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to linger at least into Day 3/Wednesday across portions of northern California, Oregon, western Idaho, and far southern Washington, as the aforementioned upper-level low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. While dry thunderstorm potential may remain across some of these areas beyond Day 3/Wednesday due to the aforementioned lingering coastal troughing, uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, locations, and mode (wet/dry) are currently too large to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An expansive mid/upper-level ridge is forecast across the western US extending northward into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift along the western periphery of the ridge over Oregon Day 3/Wednesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low (and overall synoptic pattern in the days following) continues to remain somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability. Nevertheless, the low is now generally forecast to move more quickly north/northwestward, reaching across portions of the Washington coast by Day 4/Thursday. While details remain unclear beyond Day 4/Thursday, guidance appears to be favoring the continuation of an inland western US upper-level ridge and some form of coastal trough through next weekend. ...Day 3/Wednesday: Northern California and the Northwest... Dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to linger at least into Day 3/Wednesday across portions of northern California, Oregon, western Idaho, and far southern Washington, as the aforementioned upper-level low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. While dry thunderstorm potential may remain across some of these areas beyond Day 3/Wednesday due to the aforementioned lingering coastal troughing, uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, locations, and mode (wet/dry) are currently too large to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z An expansive mid/upper-level ridge is forecast across the western US extending northward into portions of British Columbia Day 3/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift along the western periphery of the ridge over Oregon Day 3/Wednesday. Thereafter, the evolution of the low (and overall synoptic pattern in the days following) continues to remain somewhat uncertain due to poor inter/intra-model variability. Nevertheless, the low is now generally forecast to move more quickly north/northwestward, reaching across portions of the Washington coast by Day 4/Thursday. While details remain unclear beyond Day 4/Thursday, guidance appears to be favoring the continuation of an inland western US upper-level ridge and some form of coastal trough through next weekend. ...Day 3/Wednesday: Northern California and the Northwest... Dry thunderstorm potential is forecast to linger at least into Day 3/Wednesday across portions of northern California, Oregon, western Idaho, and far southern Washington, as the aforementioned upper-level low drifts northward and increasing moisture and ascent interact with a hot and unstable atmosphere. While dry thunderstorm potential may remain across some of these areas beyond Day 3/Wednesday due to the aforementioned lingering coastal troughing, uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, locations, and mode (wet/dry) are currently too large to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities. ..Elliott.. 09/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Initial thunderstorm development along a weak surface front is noted from northeast to southwest KS as of 19 UTC. Based on regional VWPs, mid-level flow remains relatively strongest across southern to southwest KS on the west/southwest side of the upper wave, which should promote a slightly higher potential for severe gusts and/or hail this afternoon/evening. The Marginal risk area was slightly adjusted to better capture this potential. See MCD #2025 for additional short-term details. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments to the thunder line were needed. An occasional lightning flash or two will be possible during the 09-12 UTC period across central CA, but recent guidance continues to suggest that lightning coverage/probability will likely remain below 10%. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Initial thunderstorm development along a weak surface front is noted from northeast to southwest KS as of 19 UTC. Based on regional VWPs, mid-level flow remains relatively strongest across southern to southwest KS on the west/southwest side of the upper wave, which should promote a slightly higher potential for severe gusts and/or hail this afternoon/evening. The Marginal risk area was slightly adjusted to better capture this potential. See MCD #2025 for additional short-term details. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments to the thunder line were needed. An occasional lightning flash or two will be possible during the 09-12 UTC period across central CA, but recent guidance continues to suggest that lightning coverage/probability will likely remain below 10%. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Initial thunderstorm development along a weak surface front is noted from northeast to southwest KS as of 19 UTC. Based on regional VWPs, mid-level flow remains relatively strongest across southern to southwest KS on the west/southwest side of the upper wave, which should promote a slightly higher potential for severe gusts and/or hail this afternoon/evening. The Marginal risk area was slightly adjusted to better capture this potential. See MCD #2025 for additional short-term details. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments to the thunder line were needed. An occasional lightning flash or two will be possible during the 09-12 UTC period across central CA, but recent guidance continues to suggest that lightning coverage/probability will likely remain below 10%. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Initial thunderstorm development along a weak surface front is noted from northeast to southwest KS as of 19 UTC. Based on regional VWPs, mid-level flow remains relatively strongest across southern to southwest KS on the west/southwest side of the upper wave, which should promote a slightly higher potential for severe gusts and/or hail this afternoon/evening. The Marginal risk area was slightly adjusted to better capture this potential. See MCD #2025 for additional short-term details. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments to the thunder line were needed. An occasional lightning flash or two will be possible during the 09-12 UTC period across central CA, but recent guidance continues to suggest that lightning coverage/probability will likely remain below 10%. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Initial thunderstorm development along a weak surface front is noted from northeast to southwest KS as of 19 UTC. Based on regional VWPs, mid-level flow remains relatively strongest across southern to southwest KS on the west/southwest side of the upper wave, which should promote a slightly higher potential for severe gusts and/or hail this afternoon/evening. The Marginal risk area was slightly adjusted to better capture this potential. See MCD #2025 for additional short-term details. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments to the thunder line were needed. An occasional lightning flash or two will be possible during the 09-12 UTC period across central CA, but recent guidance continues to suggest that lightning coverage/probability will likely remain below 10%. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Initial thunderstorm development along a weak surface front is noted from northeast to southwest KS as of 19 UTC. Based on regional VWPs, mid-level flow remains relatively strongest across southern to southwest KS on the west/southwest side of the upper wave, which should promote a slightly higher potential for severe gusts and/or hail this afternoon/evening. The Marginal risk area was slightly adjusted to better capture this potential. See MCD #2025 for additional short-term details. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments to the thunder line were needed. An occasional lightning flash or two will be possible during the 09-12 UTC period across central CA, but recent guidance continues to suggest that lightning coverage/probability will likely remain below 10%. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of southern Kansas and western/northern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent convective trends. Initial thunderstorm development along a weak surface front is noted from northeast to southwest KS as of 19 UTC. Based on regional VWPs, mid-level flow remains relatively strongest across southern to southwest KS on the west/southwest side of the upper wave, which should promote a slightly higher potential for severe gusts and/or hail this afternoon/evening. The Marginal risk area was slightly adjusted to better capture this potential. See MCD #2025 for additional short-term details. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments to the thunder line were needed. An occasional lightning flash or two will be possible during the 09-12 UTC period across central CA, but recent guidance continues to suggest that lightning coverage/probability will likely remain below 10%. ..Moore.. 09/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough centered over eastern NE late this morning will move southeastward toward the southern Plains and Ozarks by tonight. This will occur in association with a belt of modestly enhanced north-northwesterly mid-level winds (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb). While the related surface response will remain muted, a weak surface front/wind shift will progress southward from KS into OK, with a relatively moist air mass preceding the advancing boundary. Ongoing low clouds/stratus should continue to gradually erode this afternoon, yielding ample insolation and a corridor of moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse rates, particularly across southern KS into northwest OK. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by mid/late afternoon near the front/wind shift as the boundary layer warms. The enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which should support multicell clusters and perhaps marginal supercells. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds will be possible through early evening as storms develop southward from parts of southern KS into western/northern OK. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains into Missouri Ozarks late Wednesday afternoon into early evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Tuesday into Wednesday, models indicate little change to the amplified large-scale pattern across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific through North America. Mid/upper troughing will be maintained to the east of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, reinforced by one vigorous short wave trough forecast to continue digging southeast of the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity, as a similar upstream perturbation digs southeast of the Northwest Territories through eastern Canadian Prairies. A surface cold front associated with the lead impulse is forecast to continue surging southeastward through the remainder of the Midwest/lower Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys and central Great Plains, accompanied by notable further low-level drying. Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to a plume across the central Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula into southwestern Atlantic, on the southern through southeastern periphery of the larger-scale mid/upper troughing. ...Central Great Plains into Missouri Ozarks... Mid/upper forcing for ascent overspreading the region, to the southwest of the primary digging mid-level troughing/evolving low, remains unclear due to lingering model spread. However, models suggest that boundary-layer moisture will remain sufficient to support moderate potential instability beneath a pre-frontal plume of steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Focusing on the southward advancing cold front, and pre-frontal surface troughing, at least isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development appears possible by late Wednesday afternoon. Beneath strengthening northwesterly mid-level flow, the environment may become conducive to supercells and one or two small organizing clusters with potential to produce severe hail and wind, before convection weakens during the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Kerr.. 09/01/2025 Read more