Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor adjustments were made to previous forecast highlights. A broad dry thunderstorm threat will remain across portions of the Great Basin, Utah and Western Slope. Thermodynamic profiles remain supportive of high-based thunderstorms with dry sub cloud layer evaporation minimizing appreciable rainfall while increasing potential new lightning ignitions over critically dry fuels. Dry and breezy conditions across eastern NV and west-central UT will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid fuel ERC values around the 97th percentile, supporting fire spread. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor adjustments were made to previous forecast highlights. A broad dry thunderstorm threat will remain across portions of the Great Basin, Utah and Western Slope. Thermodynamic profiles remain supportive of high-based thunderstorms with dry sub cloud layer evaporation minimizing appreciable rainfall while increasing potential new lightning ignitions over critically dry fuels. Dry and breezy conditions across eastern NV and west-central UT will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid fuel ERC values around the 97th percentile, supporting fire spread. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor adjustments were made to previous forecast highlights. A broad dry thunderstorm threat will remain across portions of the Great Basin, Utah and Western Slope. Thermodynamic profiles remain supportive of high-based thunderstorms with dry sub cloud layer evaporation minimizing appreciable rainfall while increasing potential new lightning ignitions over critically dry fuels. Dry and breezy conditions across eastern NV and west-central UT will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid fuel ERC values around the 97th percentile, supporting fire spread. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor adjustments were made to previous forecast highlights. A broad dry thunderstorm threat will remain across portions of the Great Basin, Utah and Western Slope. Thermodynamic profiles remain supportive of high-based thunderstorms with dry sub cloud layer evaporation minimizing appreciable rainfall while increasing potential new lightning ignitions over critically dry fuels. Dry and breezy conditions across eastern NV and west-central UT will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid fuel ERC values around the 97th percentile, supporting fire spread. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

MD 1674 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151748Z - 151945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in coverage near the cold front, with corridors of severe wind gusts possible, along with sporadic hail. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Arrowhead southwestward into northeast SD, with a weak surface low over central MN. Weak moisture convergence exists near the front and low, with a moist air mass in place. Continued heating within cloud breaks, and warming via advection out of the south will lead to a long duration deepening moist boundary layer. Storms have already formed over northeast MN into northern WI, where low-level warm advection is currently maximized. A general increase in storms is anticipated extending southwestward later this afternoon, as more of the area becomes fully uncapped. Hail cannot be ruled out with initial cell development, but overall deep-layer shear will remain less than about 30 kt. Activity is expected to merge/elongate along the entire boundary, which will remain mostly parallel to the midlevel winds. With southwest winds around 850 mb, this suggests a line of storms propagating in an east/southeastward direction from late afternoon through early evening. ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 46139085 45659264 45269407 45159492 45269546 45579558 45919549 46359506 46689452 47169306 47419178 47409122 47289078 47079036 46559035 46139085 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more