SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor adjustments were made to previous forecast highlights. A broad dry thunderstorm threat will remain across portions of the Great Basin, Utah and Western Slope. Thermodynamic profiles remain supportive of high-based thunderstorms with dry sub cloud layer evaporation minimizing appreciable rainfall while increasing potential new lightning ignitions over critically dry fuels. Dry and breezy conditions across eastern NV and west-central UT will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid fuel ERC values around the 97th percentile, supporting fire spread. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor adjustments were made to previous forecast highlights. A broad dry thunderstorm threat will remain across portions of the Great Basin, Utah and Western Slope. Thermodynamic profiles remain supportive of high-based thunderstorms with dry sub cloud layer evaporation minimizing appreciable rainfall while increasing potential new lightning ignitions over critically dry fuels. Dry and breezy conditions across eastern NV and west-central UT will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid fuel ERC values around the 97th percentile, supporting fire spread. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor adjustments were made to previous forecast highlights. A broad dry thunderstorm threat will remain across portions of the Great Basin, Utah and Western Slope. Thermodynamic profiles remain supportive of high-based thunderstorms with dry sub cloud layer evaporation minimizing appreciable rainfall while increasing potential new lightning ignitions over critically dry fuels. Dry and breezy conditions across eastern NV and west-central UT will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid fuel ERC values around the 97th percentile, supporting fire spread. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor adjustments were made to previous forecast highlights. A broad dry thunderstorm threat will remain across portions of the Great Basin, Utah and Western Slope. Thermodynamic profiles remain supportive of high-based thunderstorms with dry sub cloud layer evaporation minimizing appreciable rainfall while increasing potential new lightning ignitions over critically dry fuels. Dry and breezy conditions across eastern NV and west-central UT will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid fuel ERC values around the 97th percentile, supporting fire spread. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor adjustments were made to previous forecast highlights. A broad dry thunderstorm threat will remain across portions of the Great Basin, Utah and Western Slope. Thermodynamic profiles remain supportive of high-based thunderstorms with dry sub cloud layer evaporation minimizing appreciable rainfall while increasing potential new lightning ignitions over critically dry fuels. Dry and breezy conditions across eastern NV and west-central UT will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid fuel ERC values around the 97th percentile, supporting fire spread. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z Only minor adjustments were made to previous forecast highlights. A broad dry thunderstorm threat will remain across portions of the Great Basin, Utah and Western Slope. Thermodynamic profiles remain supportive of high-based thunderstorms with dry sub cloud layer evaporation minimizing appreciable rainfall while increasing potential new lightning ignitions over critically dry fuels. Dry and breezy conditions across eastern NV and west-central UT will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid fuel ERC values around the 97th percentile, supporting fire spread. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and potential for quick spread of new fires. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will support potential for new lightning ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

6 days 10 hours ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast Thursday. ...Northeast and upper OH Valley... Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still appears favorable enough to support some severe risk. ...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains... Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe probabilities for now. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more
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