Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND FAR WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places a pair of highs across the CONUS, one over southern Lower MI and another in the eastern ID/southwest MT vicinity. A reservoir of low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints above 60 deg F, exists between these two features, from the southern CONUS up through the Plains. The low-level moisture will help foster thunderstorm development over much of this area, with the highest coverage anticipated along the surface troughing that extends from a pair of surface lows over the central Plains into the southern High Plains. A belt of moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will extend eastward from eastern CO/far northeast NM across KS into the Ozarks. Southern periphery of this stronger flow will help support moderate effective bulk shear across northeast NM and the TX Panhandle/TX South Plains. Despite residual cloud cover and poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture will help support modest buoyancy across the region as well. The resulting environmental conditions may result in a few stronger storms capable of hail (likely below 1" in diameter) and/or damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of moderate-strength west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist atop a moist airmass regionally. Post-MCS air mass influences and lingering cloud cover/outflows may be factors into the afternoon, but RAP/HRRR-related guidance has trended a bit more unstable and potentially more conducive to some isolated severe storms later today. While confidence in forecast details are not particularly high, this potential appears to be mainly focused in a corridor across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/Texas South Plains, and possibly western Oklahoma later this afternoon into evening. This is where locally moderate destabilization may occur coincident with effective shear magnitudes that may reach 30-40 kt, with storm development focused near the surface trough and/or influenced by differential heating. A few instances of severe hail and/or wind will be possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of moderate-strength west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist atop a moist airmass regionally. Post-MCS air mass influences and lingering cloud cover/outflows may be factors into the afternoon, but RAP/HRRR-related guidance has trended a bit more unstable and potentially more conducive to some isolated severe storms later today. While confidence in forecast details are not particularly high, this potential appears to be mainly focused in a corridor across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/Texas South Plains, and possibly western Oklahoma later this afternoon into evening. This is where locally moderate destabilization may occur coincident with effective shear magnitudes that may reach 30-40 kt, with storm development focused near the surface trough and/or influenced by differential heating. A few instances of severe hail and/or wind will be possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of moderate-strength west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist atop a moist airmass regionally. Post-MCS air mass influences and lingering cloud cover/outflows may be factors into the afternoon, but RAP/HRRR-related guidance has trended a bit more unstable and potentially more conducive to some isolated severe storms later today. While confidence in forecast details are not particularly high, this potential appears to be mainly focused in a corridor across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/Texas South Plains, and possibly western Oklahoma later this afternoon into evening. This is where locally moderate destabilization may occur coincident with effective shear magnitudes that may reach 30-40 kt, with storm development focused near the surface trough and/or influenced by differential heating. A few instances of severe hail and/or wind will be possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Some strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur late this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of moderate-strength west-northwesterly flow aloft will persist atop a moist airmass regionally. Post-MCS air mass influences and lingering cloud cover/outflows may be factors into the afternoon, but RAP/HRRR-related guidance has trended a bit more unstable and potentially more conducive to some isolated severe storms later today. While confidence in forecast details are not particularly high, this potential appears to be mainly focused in a corridor across northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/Texas South Plains, and possibly western Oklahoma later this afternoon into evening. This is where locally moderate destabilization may occur coincident with effective shear magnitudes that may reach 30-40 kt, with storm development focused near the surface trough and/or influenced by differential heating. A few instances of severe hail and/or wind will be possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/30/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the central or southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will become established over the Plains and MS Valley as upper ridging remains in place across the Interior West on Monday. Surface high pressure will be commonplace across much of the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well areas west of the Rockies. Rich low-level moisture will meander over the Plains and Gulf Coast region, serving as a primary fuel source for thunderstorms. A diffuse surface front will sag southward across the southern Plains as weak mid-level impulses overspread the Plains, serving as lifting mechanisms for deep-moist convection. A couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind and hail cannot be ruled out. However, the threat for organized severe appears too low to warrant the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly mid-level flow regime will become established across the central U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly mid-level flow regime will become established across the central U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025 Read more